By Reid Wilson - 09/01/16 06:00 AM EDT
Pollsters are debating whether Donald Trump’s “silent majority” of voters exists, and are scrambling to make sure that their surveys reflect the opinions of voters who might not ordinarily be included in opinion polls.
Democratic and Republican pollsters alike are determined to get their predictions for the 2016 elections right in the wake of a series of high-profile missed calls.
Partisan claims of skewed results have also escalated, with Trump and his unconventional claim asserting that polls aren’t capturing the Republican nominee’s true support.
Trump claims his campaign will turn out millions of new or irregular voters in November, some of whom will be voting for the first time.
Some pollsters acknowledge the race presents some new challenges.
“We know some people who are traditionally seen as unlikely voters are going to vote,” said Nick Gourevitch, a partner at Global Strategy Group, which polls for Democratic candidates. “You need to take those people into account, and if you just lop those people off, you’re going to miss something.”
Modern public opinion polling is as much art as science.
The science comes in measuring the attitudes of the American electorate, and key demographic groups, in a statistically valid way. The art comes in defining just what that electorate will look like, and how much of a percentage of the electorate key demographic groups will make up.
Variations in those models can change the outcome of a poll.
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http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/294018-pollsters-fight-to-figure-out-the-trump-phenomenon
