August 30, 2016, 05:51 pm
Polls tighten in presidential race
By Jonathan Easley
Donald Trump is gaining some ground on Hillary Clinton in the polls, leaving the Democrat with a smaller lead heading into the crucial month of September.
Clinton opened her largest margin on Aug. 9, when she had a 7.6 percentage point advantage over Trump in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls. At the time, she was consistently reaching 50 percent support.
But Clinton’s lead has shrunk since then, to 4.3 points in the RealClearPolitics average, and she’s fallen short of the 50 percent mark in the last six national polls. The Democratic presidential nominee has settled into the mid-40 percent range, presenting an opportunity for her Republican rival.
Despite the improving picture for Trump, Clinton remains the favorite to win.
She holds a 4.3-point advantage nationally over Trump in the RealClearPolitics average of polls and leads almost across the board in the battleground states that will decide the election.
Trump’s path to the necessary 270 electoral votes is exceedingly narrow, with a handful of swing states — Colorado and Virginia among them — already appearing out of reach.
And while the GOP nominee is running competitively in the bellwethers of Florida and Ohio, Trump must also win Pennsylvania, which looks like a steep climb.
For Trump, the deficit in polling has at least reached a level he can overcome as he enters the post-Labor Day sprint.
Clinton is being dragged down by awful favorability ratings, which have prevented her from running away with the race.
“It’s not in the bag for her yet,” Monmouth University polling director Patrick Murray told The Hill.
A NBC News-Survey Monkey poll released Tuesday found Clinton’s lead falling from 6 points earlier this month to 4 points. In that survey, Trump reduced Clinton’s lead among independents by half, from 8 points to 4 points.
Trump has also closed the gap in Reuters-Ipsos and Monmouth polls released this week, although he still trails by 3 points and 7 points, respectively.
Pollsters interviewed by The Hill say that Clinton’s polling bounce after her party's national convention was aided and perhaps magnified by Trump’s feud with the family of a slain U.S. solider.
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http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/293882-polls-tighten-in-presidential-race
