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RealClearPolitics Editor: Trump Bid Isn't Hurting Down Ballot Races
Tuesday, August 30, 2016 01:20 PM
By: Sandy Fitzgerald
Donald Trump's unconventional bid for the White House doesn't appear to be harming down-ballot races, according to RealClearPolitics poll analysis data, website editor Tom Bevan said Tuesday.
He thinks the race between the GOP nominee and rival Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton will end up being close in the end.
"Overall, if you look at 12 Senate races across the country, on average the Republicans are running about five points better than Donald Trump," Bevan told MSNBC's "Morning Joe." "That goes from somebody who is tied, all the way up to [Ohio Sen. Rob] Portman, who you talked a lot about, who is running over 11 points better than Donald Trump in the state of Ohio. So Republicans are faring better than Donald Trump in a lot of these states."
There have been concerns Trump's influence would affect the races, but "it hasn't been proven thus far," Bevan said.
"That certainly can change as we get closer to Election Day and the campaign gets more heated and more money is spent on advertising," he said. "Right now, so far it hasn't. Part of that, the reason is, some of these candidates have been able to say they are supporting Donald Trump and they are able to thread that needle."
Trump is also so "unique in his mannerisms and his campaign," Bevan said, it gives Republican candidates the ability to say they support him, but disagree with him on his more controversial statements.
He also advised watchers not to depend on individual polls much when it comes to predicting an eventual winner in the the race.
"Try and look at the aggregate of the data, which is my pitch for our averages," said Bevan, whose website tracks polls on a national and state level. "[Consider] tracking polls the same way. At best it gives you, it's indicative of something. It's not necessarily predictive, but it gives you a snapshot in time."
Currently, the RealClearPolitics overall average gives Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton a five-point lead, but traditionally, polls tighten after Labor Day, and Bevan thinks some of the state polls will start to tighten at that time, as the nation is divided over Trump and Clinton.
"We have two nominees who are historically unalike and untrusted," Bevan said. "I think for that reason we're going to see this thing is going to probably tighten up and end up being, you know, somewhat close in the end."
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