Polling Benchmarks Trump Needs to Overtake Clinton

[mystery-ak]

Polling Benchmarks Trump Needs to Overtake Clinton
By David Byler
August 30, 2016

Can Donald Trump win this election? And if a comeback is in store, when will the polls start to show it?

It's impossible to know if Trump will make a comeback. Clinton is the clear favorite and leads in the polls, but there are still more than two months left in the race. It's possible to imagine scenarios where Trump catches up and overtakes Clinton.

But it's important to try to figure out if those scenarios are plausible and what the early signs of a Trump comeback might be. To that end, I analyzed polling from 11 presidential elections and came up with three rules of thumb - Trump can still win, to do so he needs to be within a few points in late September, and there isn't much time to move polls in October - to help guide readers through the next two-plus months of polling. These guidelines came from an analysis of historical polling data, which is summarized in this graph:

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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/08/30/polling_benchmarks_trump_needs_to_overtake_clinton.html

[sinkspur]

Media's trying to keep it interesting.

The fact is, this race is over.  State polls are what matter because those are what determine electoral votes.  And, by most estimates, Hillary's already over 270. 

Trump is flailing with his hemming and hawing over immigration and his clumsy "outreach" to blacks (which consists of Trump insulting blacks over their "plight").   And Trump is bound to screw up at least four or five more times in the next 70 days. 

With all that's happened in just the last month, Hillary would literally be getting blown out with any other candidate as her opposition.

But, Trump.