My Money Is on a Trump Victory

[SirLinksALot]

SOURCE: NATIONAL REVIEW

URL: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/439451/donald-trump-will-win-five-reasons-why

by: HEATHER R. HIGGINS   


Trump’s voters (and many are staying mum) are well aware of his flaws and might carry him to victory anyway. For what it is worth: Nothing is ever certain, and much could go wrong, but my money remains on a Trump victory. Why?

1) It feels a whole lot like Reagan in ’80 and Newt in ’94.

Reagan was disliked by the establishment (who liked Baker or Bush), viewed with suspicion by professional conservatives (they liked Phil Crane, not a divorced, former Democrat, big-spending governor), and regarded with condescension by the media and the Left (who saw him as stupid and as a dangerous cowboy). Those camps could not fathom the breadth and depth of his popular momentum.

Ditto the GOP’s taking the House in ’94 — I was on CNN five weeks prior to that election and produced outright guffaws and rolled eyes from everyone when I said that the GOP would win not only the Senate but also the House. The signs were all there, but because the idea seemed so preposterous, many analysts couldn’t see them.]

 More recently, Matt Bevin was left for dead by most of the smart money in his race for Kentucky governor, and Brexit was “sure” not to pass. Trump is an extension of that zeitgeist for many — a long-awaited reclaiming of control of their lives, their country, their self-identity.

2) Who are you going to believe, polls or your lying eyes?

I started asking people in the spring whom they were voting for.

A surprisingly large percentage of not-supposed-to-be-a-Trump-supporter types turned out to be exactly that. That includes rich and highly educated people, women, blacks, Hispanics, and Muslims. A bunch of anecdotes, but interesting. Everyone keeps saying this election is about Trump.

But I have come to believe it really is about his supporters, who to a person are deeply versed in all his flaws and faults and support him regardless. For them, this is about one or more of the following:

* deep antipathy for Hillary and all she represents and would do;

* disappointment with a broken system they feel has ignored them and in some cases harmed them for years;

* a desire to reclaim the country and their own lives and personhood.

They genuinely love and worry about their country, and they want to feel proud again to be an American.


EXCERPT ONLY, CLICK ABOVE LINK FOR THE REST....

[sinkspur]

This is an amazingly embarrassing article. I feel sorry for the woman who wrote it.

Full of anecdotes, feelings,  false comparisons, and wishful thinking, it has no relationship to reality.

[catfish1957]

1) It feels a whole lot like Reagan in ’80 and Newt in ’94.


2) Who are you going to believe, polls or your lying eyes?



[/size]

Newt and Reagan were well spoken principled conservatives.  (At least Newt was at the time)  Neither were gaffe a minute candidates either.

Secondly, I cringe when someone quotes whiney Eagles songs for political reasoning.  I think the Eagles second Live album sums up Trump's chances at best.....

(when) Hell Freezes over.

[beandog]

I wonder how much actual cash she is willing to bet on it.  That would tell a lot about how much she really believes what she is writing.

[LMAO]

This is an amazingly embarrassing article. I feel sorry for the woman who wrote it.

Full of anecdotes, feelings,  false comparisons, and wishful thinking, it has no relationship to reality.

@sinkspur

True.

I'm not betting my money on either candidate winning or losing at this point. October should give us a better picture

[Vulcan]

[geronl]

Trump is going to lose bigly. YUGE! No one will have lost bigger than Trump, his loss will be historic as he would want it.

[NavyCanDo]

I would jump in here and say, "I'll take that bet", but don't need to stir up Internet gambling problems for our mods.

[GrouchoTex]

Yep, this is a strange year, weird things could happen, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

[Vulcan]

[Axel]

But I have come to believe it really is about his supporters, who to a person are deeply versed in all his flaws and faults and support him regardless. For them, this is about one or more of the following:

* deep antipathy for Hillary and all she represents and would do;

* disappointment with a broken system they feel has ignored them and in some cases harmed them for years;

* a desire to reclaim the country and their own lives and personhood.

They genuinely love and worry about their country, and they want to feel proud again to be an American.

Couldn't agree more with that section, and its so true!

[bolobaby]

This is an amazingly embarrassing article. I feel sorry for the woman who wrote it.

Full of anecdotes, feelings,  false comparisons, and wishful thinking, it has no relationship to reality.

Agreed. I was waiting for the one section that said, "And if you look at these fundraising numbers, you can see that they are 20% higher than..." or "Here's a comparison of polls and their errors from the past..." or "Hillary's unfavorable numbers show us that..." or, best yet, "When you look at the map from an electoral standpoint..."

None of that, just a heaping serving of "I got a feeling" bullcrap.

The bad news is that ANY prediction that includes actual empirical analysis has Hillary wiping the floor with Trump.

Here's an example: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-has-already-picked-the-next-us-president-2016-08-29?siteid=yhoof2

Conservatism is toast thanks to Team Trump. Thanks for that.

[roamer_1]

[From the OP article:]

I have found that many folks who are normally GOP voters but who are unhappy about Trump largely fall into two camps. The first are those who object because Trump isn’t solidly, reliably conservative on their priority issues. The second are those who, at bottom, find Trump personally objectionable, as does almost everyone they know, so they feel that the prospect of supporting him would violate the way they see themselves and wish to have others think of them.

The first: those who object because Trump isn’t solidly, reliably conservative on their priority issues.

Trump is not reliably Conservative on ANY issue. I would assert that there is no evidence that Trump will be reliable at all.

And the second: those who, at bottom, find Trump personally objectionable

The author follows the statement with this little bit of psychobabble:

[...] as does almost everyone they know, so they feel that the prospect of supporting him would violate the way they see themselves and wish to have others think of them.

Personalizing the issue as some fault of the prospective voter removes one from the glaring omission that Trump is indeed a boorish ass, and that it is of little wonder that anyone would desire that association.

*PLONK*

[Norm Lenhart]

Secondly, I cringe when someone quotes whiney Eagles songs for political reasoning.  I think the Eagles second Live album sums up Trump's chances at best.....

(when) Hell Freezes over.

Well if she wants to quote Henley...

"
"Today I made an appearance downtown
I am an expert witness, because I say I am
And I said, 'Gentleman, and I use that word loosely
I will testify for you
I'm a gun for hire, I'm a saint, I'm a liar
Because there are no facts, there is no truth
Just a data to be manipulated
I can get any result you like
What's it worth to ya?
Because there is no wrong, there is no right
And I sleep very well at night
No shame, no solution
No remorse, no retribution
Just people selling T-shirts
Just opportunity to participate in the pathetic little circus
And winning, winning, winning'"

[roamer_1]

Well if she wants to quote Henley...

My political theme song since 2007 still applies, doubled-down:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoGweOFqapU

[geronl]

When she says "My Money", she was probably thinking of the 84 cents she found in the couch cushions