Author Topic: A plausible, if long-shot, scenario that throws the Presidential election to the House of Representatives  (Read 3169 times)

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Offline jmyrlefuller

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From the original article:
Gary Johnson Polling At 16% In Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, And Utah
by J. Wilson
August 24, 2016



Gary Johnson is polling just as strongly in blue states like Colorado and New Mexico as he is in red states like Alaska and Utah. Each of those four states has found the Libertarian Presidential nominee at 16% in polls taken recently. Those four states are also some of the campaign’s target states in the West that they’ve been going after.

These polls confirm that there is a way to keep both Trump and Clinton under 270. Trump faces an uphill battle to get to 270 according to all the polls and pundits and will likely receive less than the optimistic 250 shown in this map. The Democrats have a built in advantage in the electoral college but it’s still possible to keep Hillary just under the threshold. By taking blue states like Colorado and New Mexico out of Clinton’s column Johnson would keep her from passing 270.

That will throw the election to the House of Representatives to decide which of the top three finishers will be President.

(excerpt)
Full article:
https://alibertarianfuture.com/2016-election/presidential-polls/gary-johnson-polling-sixteen-percent-alaska-colorado-new-mexico-utah/
« Last Edit: August 26, 2016, 06:50:25 pm by jmyrlefuller »
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Offline NavyCanDo

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Not that I would ever want Johnson to be President, and neither would the House of Representatives, but I do like the math, a long shot as it is. 
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Offline jmyrlefuller

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Not that I would ever want Johnson to be President, and neither would the House of Representatives, but I do like the math, a long shot as it is.
And like I've said before: I'm not a huge fan of Johnson, but he looks like a saint compared to Trump and Clinton. He may be wrong on a number of issues, but Trump and Clinton are megalomaniacs.

At the very least, Johnson peeling off a couple of electoral votes could give both of the major parties the huge scare that they both desperately need after the nomination processes this cycle (and for the GOP, the past few).
« Last Edit: August 26, 2016, 06:52:56 pm by jmyrlefuller »
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Wingnut

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Hey, It would help put an end to this long national nightmare we are currenty living.   Take it to the house!

Offline jmyrlefuller

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I might add:

This scenario assumes Trump winning Florida and Ohio. That would require voters in those two states to unite behind Trump strategically—which might be a taller order in Kasich territory. For those two states, the concept of voting for Trump as a vote against Hillary is justifiable.

But the rest of the 48 states face no such mandate.
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Online libertybele

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And like I've said before: I'm not a huge fan of Johnson, but he looks like a saint compared to Trump and Clinton. He may be wrong on a number of issues, but Trump and Clinton are megalomaniacs.

At the very least, Johnson peeling off a couple of electoral votes could give both of the major parties the huge scare that they both desperately need after the nomination processes this cycle (and for the GOP, the past few).

Not so sure he's any better than either Clinton or Trump.  He leans way too far to the left for me on abortion, climate change, immigration and he strongly opposes expanding the military.

http://www.ontheissues.org/Gary_Johnson.htm

Clinton:

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hillary_Clinton.htm

Trump:

http://www.ontheissues.org/Donald_Trump.htm
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Offline musiclady

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I might add:

This scenario assumes Trump winning Florida and Ohio. That would require voters in those two states to unite behind Trump strategically—which might be a taller order in Kasich territory. For those two states, the concept of voting for Trump as a vote against Hillary is justifiable.

But the rest of the 48 states face no such mandate.

Wow.  I don't think Trump can take Ohio.  There's a chance, but I doubt it.

And he's not getting any votes in this household.
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Offline ABX

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The thing about the Libertarians is that they are a safer bet in many ways. Even if they are wrong on an issue, they don't believe in government interventionism and collectivism, so they are far less likely to use the government to force an issue they are wrong on.  Both Trump and Hillary are big government collectivists who believe in using the hammer of government to force their issues, so when they are wrong on an issue, they will use the government to force it. Even if they are right on an issue, they still are more likely to force it via the wrong means, through government force.

Here is a silly analogy but one that shouldn't cause fights.

Let's say that Johnson, Trump, and Hillary all believe that saggy pants are wrong. Two of those candidates are more likely to use the government to force a law banning saggy pants, one is more likely to say that even though he believes it is wrong, he doesn't think it is the government's business.

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Not so sure he's any better than either Clinton or Trump.  He leans way too far to the left for me on abortion, climate change, immigration and he strongly opposes expanding the military.

http://www.ontheissues.org/Gary_Johnson.htm

Clinton:

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hillary_Clinton.htm

Trump:

http://www.ontheissues.org/Donald_Trump.htm

At this point, I prefer My POTUS to be mentally fit and not ready for the funny farm like Trump.

Offline r9etb

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Not that I would ever want Johnson to be President, and neither would the House of Representatives, but I do like the math, a long shot as it is.

On the other hand, if my choice is between Johnson, or Trump, or Clinton .... Damned straight I want Johnson to be president!


Online libertybele

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Even if it does go to the House; they still have to decide on either Trump, Clinton or Johnson.  That really doesn't change what we're facing as a country one iota.
Romans 12:16-21

Live in harmony with one another; do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly, do not claim to be wiser than you are.  Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but take thought for what is noble in the sight of all.  If it is possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all…do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.

Offline r9etb

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Not so sure he's any better than either Clinton or Trump.  He leans way too far to the left for me on abortion, climate change, immigration and he strongly opposes expanding the military.

Expanding the military -- Johnson isn't insane.  He would have to respond to the world situation as it's presented to him.  However reluctantly, he'd expand it as required.

Climate change -- he'd be hamstrung by Congress, but in any case couldn't possibly be as bad as Obama is now, or as Clinton would probably be.  Trump.... who knows?

Immigration --  At worst he's no different from Trump or Clinton on this. 

Abortion -- I despise his position on abortion, but it's not different from Trump or Clinton, and thus it is not discriminator between them.

The one thing you didn't mention: judges.  Johnson would almost certainly go for more "limited government" types than either Clinton or Trump, and that's a huge plus in his favor.  And if he gets his limited government judges, then the USSC's positions on those last three issues might actually move in the right direction.

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People who rationalize voting for Trump based on the canard, "No Matter What Trump Does on Fill In The Blank, It’s Going to Be Better Than What Hillary Will/Would Do" really need to stop and think about how rediculous that is.

Offline ABX

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Almost in agreement with R9 on this except with a few tweaks based on what Johnson has said.

Expanding the military -- Johnson wouldn't expand it but he would be less likely to use it in some unmeasured or dangerous way like Hillary or Trump who would both use it for personal vendettas or whatever made them popular. He would get congressional approval first.

Climate change -- He actually walked back his 'carbon tax' comment as a misunderstanding (trying to make a point) but out of all three, he is the least likely to take drastic government action. You wouldn't see a Libertarian mandating new building standards or lightbulbs.

Immigration --  One advantage, he would kill entitlement programs that are the biggest draw for those who want to come here illegally and not out of a mutually beneficial commercial action (aka migrant workers). If you kill entitlements, you kill incentive for illegals so it is like reversing the polarity on a magnet- not only will it keep most from wanting to come over, it would eliminate a lot of what allows people to stay here. His proposal is also to ease legal immigration standards- both combined is an immigration system that eliminates the criminal element and is only rewarding if it is economically beneficial to both sides.

Abortion -- He is wrong on this, period. But he seems to want to allow States to decide so although he is wrong, that would encourage individual States to take action without an activist federal government overriding them.

Judges -- Agreed with R9, he wouldn't decide based on activist/interventionist judges because judicial activism is not in his nature or philosophy. It may require more work for Conservatives to make better Constitutional cases for something they are going before the SCOTUS for as they can't count on someone being an activist their way either, but it is better than also having liberal activist judges.

Offline r9etb

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Almost in agreement with R9 on this except with a few tweaks based on what Johnson has said.

Nicely stated.  I agree with you.


Offline r9etb

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I'd love to see it happen, but those poll numbers are going to have to increase two-fold for him to win the states.  The debate, if Johnson can do a halfway decent job, might cause those numbers to go up.  We know he can beat Trump, anybody can, but Hillary will in all likelihood do her best to make him look a fool. 

IF he can get into the debates in the firs place, Johnson's a pretty good speaker, so he has that going for him.  And if he can give somewhat sane and adult answers to questions it would seriously differentiate him from the other two.  Just having Johnson in the debates would make a big difference.  Probably not enough to swing the election away from Clinton, but maybe enough to shatter the assumption that we must choose between two candidates. 

In any case, I think Trump is probably the last candidate of this current manifestation of the GOP, and admitting Johnson to the debates would probably hasten the collapse.

Quote
It's guaranteed that if those numbers climb, Trump will call him names and act a lunatic towards him in the second debate instead of going after Hillary.  How long before Johnson and his family are destroyed by Trump as Cruz was?  The end game is to get Hillary elected after all.

Trump couldn't get away with it this time.  Any Cruz-like attacks on Johnson, just make Trump look more insane, and Johnson (if he can just roll his eyes and laugh) look better. 

Offline jmyrlefuller

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Climate change -- he'd be hamstrung by Congress, but in any case couldn't possibly be as bad as Obama is now, or as Clinton would probably be.  Trump.... who knows?
That's the perplexing thing about Johnson: he's already walking that statement back. It's hard to tell what, exactly, he plans on doing. (Hence why I have never been a fan of campaign promises and prefer to go on records, where Johnson's is, well, OK—not great, but not horrible.)

The benefit of him being a big-L Libertarian is that the parties aren't directly loyal to him and anything unreasonable is going to be next to impossible to get through Congress. It'll be easier for a Republican Congress to stand up to a dumb idea from Johnson than it is to a dumb idea from Trump.
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Offline Idaho_Cowboy

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People who rationalize voting for Trump based on the canard, "No Matter What Trump Does on Fill In The Blank, It’s Going to Be Better Than What Hillary Will/Would Do" really need to stop and think about how rediculous that is.
But, but Trump has the all important ever coveted R behind his name that means no matter how liberal he is he must be better than the hated D. If Hillary had switched to the almighty R like Trump did a few years ago we would all be talking about how much better she would be. Because R (TM).
@Norm Lenhart can explain this better than I can.
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Offline Norm Lenhart

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But, but Trump has the all important ever coveted R behind his name that means no matter how liberal he is he must be better than the hated D. If Hillary had switched to the almighty R like Trump did a few years ago we would all be talking about how much better she would be. Because R (TM).
@Norm Lenhart can explain this better than I can.

It's simple logic. Anyone saying otherwise needs to prove their assertion.

When the America hating 'conservatives' abandon the very principles their entire system of government was founded on to 'win nomatter what", they accomplished a couple things other than flushing their integrity and establishing their liberal credentials.

1: Liberals are called 'Progressives for a reason. They make progress every time some yellowbacked moderate calling themselves 'conservative' empowers the 'R'  that shares and campaigns on liberal ideals. Case in point - Bhoner, Mitch and Romney.

Each of these liberal Reoublicans was pro amnesty, Pro gay agenda and passed funding for Romneycare...sorry, OBAMAcare. They did nothing to stop abortion and in fact passed several laws to enable it. We dont need to rehash EVERY OTHER hard left position and policy they rammed through. The above is more than enough to establish their liberal credentials because the Dems shared their positions fully.

2: By electing and ATTEMPTING to elect liberal Republicans, the entire paradigm of the GOP shifted left. They were ENCOURAGED by the liberal garbage that elected them to adopt increasingly leftist policies and positions.

All the above is a matter of historical record. These scum did not magically appear in DC on the backs of unicorns. They were put there by liberals empowering other liberals.

The leftists here and everywhere else are here and every other supposedly right wing/conservative site for one reason. To make sure a Ted Cruz type never sees office. And as we all saw with their actions,to this day, pushing of leftist Trump talking points, they achieved their goal.

I and others have harped on this for years. We get all sorts of sXXt from said liberals denying that the above is true and calling US the problem. Unfortunately for them, the facts and history support our position.

TLDR: America hating liberals support candidates that achieve their goals. If their candidates are pro Abort, Pro Gay agenda, anti 1 &2 Amendment and actively fund or otherwise support those things, guess what? They are birds of a feather. You do not put your name/vote to things or people you personally oppose.

PS: for anyone that wants to have a tantrum about it...Behold my field of... 'care.' and see that it is barren.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2016, 10:37:48 pm by Norm Lenhart »

Offline Smokin Joe

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Not so sure he's any better than either Clinton or Trump.  He leans way too far to the left for me on abortion, climate change, immigration and he strongly opposes expanding the military.

http://www.ontheissues.org/Gary_Johnson.htm

Clinton:

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hillary_Clinton.htm

Trump:

http://www.ontheissues.org/Donald_Trump.htm
I far prefer the Constitution Party over the Libertarian Party, jmho.
https://amthirdpartyreport.com/2016/05/28/darrell-castle-the-constitutional-conservative-option/
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Offline Applewood

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Third party candidates usually win maybe 1% or less of the vote.  I would like to see a third party candidate do better. Even 5% might shake up the Republican Party and it might finally break the two-party (or uniparty) monopoly.  People may actually realize they have choices besides the lousy candidates the two major parties give them. 

Offline sneakypete

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Out of a nation of over 300 million people,the best candidates we can come up with for president are a woman who is a poster child for evil and treason,and a narcissistic sociopath?

And some of you STILL think our current political system can be fixed from within?
« Last Edit: August 27, 2016, 12:40:48 pm by sneakypete »
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Offline r9etb

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And some of you STILL think our current political system can be fixed from within?

What do you recommend?  Are you suggesting that something other than an election is necessary?

Online libertybele

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Out of a nation of over 300 million people,the best candidates we can come up with for president are a woman who is a poster child for evil and treason,and a narcissistic sociopath?

And some of you STILL think our current political system can be fixed from within?

Washington is broken and it cannot be fixed from the top down.  The mushroom at the top is imploding. The focus has been (at least by some) to make our state and local governments as conservative as possible.  It is our conservative governors holding things together and a few in Congress; other than that we're pretty much screwed.
Romans 12:16-21

Live in harmony with one another; do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly, do not claim to be wiser than you are.  Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but take thought for what is noble in the sight of all.  If it is possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all…do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.

Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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From the original article:
Gary Johnson Polling At 16% In Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, And Utah
by J. Wilson
August 24, 2016



Gary Johnson is polling just as strongly in blue states like Colorado and New Mexico as he is in red states like Alaska and Utah. Each of those four states has found the Libertarian Presidential nominee at 16% in polls taken recently. Those four states are also some of the campaign’s target states in the West that they’ve been going after.

These polls confirm that there is a way to keep both Trump and Clinton under 270. Trump faces an uphill battle to get to 270 according to all the polls and pundits and will likely receive less than the optimistic 250 shown in this map. The Democrats have a built in advantage in the electoral college but it’s still possible to keep Hillary just under the threshold. By taking blue states like Colorado and New Mexico out of Clinton’s column Johnson would keep her from passing 270.

That will throw the election to the House of Representatives to decide which of the top three finishers will be President.

(excerpt)
Full article:
https://alibertarianfuture.com/2016-election/presidential-polls/gary-johnson-polling-sixteen-percent-alaska-colorado-new-mexico-utah/

Getting McAulliff into governor's office in Virginia seems critical from map.

No wonder why he wants to release thousands of felons to vote for Hillary.
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