http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/08/24/trouble-sign-for-donald-trump-ambivalence-in-exurbs/Trouble Sign for Donald Trump: Ambivalence in ExurbsBy DANTE CHINNI
Aug 24, 2016 7:19 am ET
America’s big cities have long been core Democratic strongholds, and the suburbs just around them have increasingly backed the party’s candidates, as well. That trend is bringing new attention to the Republican Party’s reliance on the next geographic ring outside cities—the exurbs, an area that is proving to be a trouble spot for Donald Trump.
Mitt Romney, the 2012 GOP nominee, carried exurbs by 18 percentage points. That only partially offset the big losses he sustained in the nation’s big cities, which President Barack Obama carried by 31 percentage points, and the urban suburbs, which he lost by 16 points.
So, clearly Mr. Trump must at least match Mr. Romney’s showing in the exurbs, especially given signs in opinion polls that he is underperforming his GOP predecessor in the nation’s suburbs.
There are signs of trouble for Mr. Trump in the exurbs. As delineated by the American Communities Project, exurbs are Republican-leaning counties, with education levels that tend to be higher than average, which sit between the suburbs and rural America.
A new analysis of Gallup survey numbers from the first half of 2016 find that Mr. Trump has a relatively weak image in exurban counties, particularly compared to the more favorable views of Hillary Clinton in big cities and the suburbs just outside them. The Gallup data show that 36% of the people in the exurbs hold favorable opinions of Mr. Trump, three percentage points higher than the 33% in those communities who hold favorable opinions of Mrs. Clinton.
By contrast, Mrs. Clinton’s standing in Democratic strongholds is far firmer than is Mr. Trump’s standing in the exurbs. In big cities as defined by the American Communities Project, some 53% hold a favorable view of Mrs. Clinton, while 21% hold a favorable view of Mr. Trump – a 32-point gap.
In the urban suburbs, some 46% hold a favorable view of Mrs. Clinton, while Mr. Trump’s favorable number is at 28%—an 18-point difference.
The Gallup numbers suggest ambivalence about the 2016 presidential race in the exurbs.
Without big margins in the exurbs, the GOP risks becoming a party made up largely of rural, white voters, further hampering its ability to win the White House. There simply aren’t enough of those voters.
For the GOP to win national races, the party needs to find a way to become more competitive in big metro counties. More than 40% of votes cast in 2012 came from the big cities and urban suburbs. The exurbs, the source of 12% of the vote, offer the Republicans at least a partial offset of their disadvantage elsewhere. The party can’t afford to lose its hold on them.
