Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania

[Suppressed]

Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has surged to a 5-point lead over democratic [sic] rival Hillary Clinton in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania as per a latest poll.

Posted: Aug 21, 2016 11:08 AM EDT

http://www.cbs8.com/story/32806609/trump-leads-clinton-by-5-points-in-the-key-battleground-state-of-pennsylvania

... conducted by CEPEX Center for Excellence in Project Execution, on Friday (19th Aug 2016).

Trump leads Clinton 41.9 percent to 36.5 percent, with 21.5 percent voters [of] undecided. Trump’s lead is just inside the margin of error ...

The survey contacted around 1,000 registered voters. Results are estimated to be accurate within 7.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. . . .

[Excerpted. More at link.]

[flowers]

http://www.cbs8.com/story/32806609/trump-leads-clinton-by-5-points-in-the-key-battleground-state-of-pennsylvania

“One of the reasons of Trump’s surge is attributable to seemingly strong support from the women” added Mukherjee.

[LadyLiberty]

Hmm, a poll by CEPEX -- a company that provides services to the oil and gas industry in Alberta Canada?  They have decided to conduct a poll, and it's the first poll they've ever done.  And it happens to be on the US Presidential poll in PA.  I call that really odd.   

[HonestJohn]

Hmm, a poll by CEPEX -- a company that provides services to the oil and gas industry in Alberta Canada?  They have decided to conduct a poll, and it's the first poll they've ever done.  And it happens to be on the US Presidential poll in PA.  I call that really odd.   

Talk about a transparent lie by the Trump side.

---

Actually, the poll is true.  Believe me.  Pennsylvania Trump supporters can now relax.  No need to make an effort to get out and vote.  Stay home and watch Duck Dynasty instead. 

You know you want to.

Honest.

[TomSea]

Good news, I saw an article too that Connecticut's economy might give the GOP nominee a chance.

[Frank Cannon]

The survey contacted around 1,000 registered voters.

Great poll.

[ABX]

Hmm, a poll by CEPEX -- a company that provides services to the oil and gas industry in Alberta Canada?  They have decided to conduct a poll, and it's the first poll they've ever done.  And it happens to be on the US Presidential poll in PA.  I call that really odd.   

I noticed that too, and did verify they are referring to the Center for Excellence in Project Execution.  Same entity.

http://www.projectexecution.consulting/cepexpoll/

They actually just started a polling and analysis division. As they have no  history to look back on in this field, we really won't know how accurate this is until the election.

What's more interesting, their website was just registered a couple of months ago (parent website, not the new polling part).
https://www.instra.com/en/whois/whois-result/projectexecution_consulting

Their LinkedIn profile just shows 1-10 employees. Their LinkedIn also only shows 31 followers which is nothing. (I'm a nobody and I have several thousand LinkedIn followers, even my wife's private piano studio has more followers).
https://www.linkedin.com/company/10622206?trk=tyah&trkInfo=clickedVertical%3Acompany%2CclickedEntityId%3A10622206%2Cidx%3A2-1-2%2CtarId%3A1462824792229%2Ctas%3Acenter%20for%20excellence%20in%20project%20exe

Their business address shows dozens of other companies registered to it, not just the office building but with the same office number too. It appears the address they have listed may be just a universal business registration address (like a mailing service).
http://www.bing.com/search?q=3553+31+STREET+NORTHWEST+Calgary%2C+Alberta+&form=SL5JDF&pc=SL5J

It always is a head scratcher when you see polls from sources you've never heard of before. Not only in questioning if it is legitimate, but how those who are citing the poll found out about it in the first place.

[ABX]

The other odd thing about this is it is a CBS station out of San Diego, California reporting on a Pennsylvania poll (from an unknown source). But the bottom of the page gives a clue what's going on.

This article was originally distributed via Newswire.com. Newswire.com, Frankly and this Site make no warranties or representations in connection therewith. If you are affiliated with this page and would like it removed please contact pressreleases@franklyinc.com

The CMS for CBS8's website just pulls press releases from Newswire.com to keep their site fed with releases. Checking Newswire.com, anyone can submit a news release to it. It isn't a vetted news article or poll. This explains how this unknown polling company hit a CBS news site's webpage.

[sinkspur]

BWAAAHAAAHAAAA!!!!

The survey contacted around 1,000 registered voters. Results are estimated to be accurate within 7.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

]

A 7.1 percent margin of error is the sign of a worthless poll.  This outfit is just guessing as to the results.  There are no demographics given, so we don't know the Dem, GOP, Indie breakdown.

And this is simply not believable:

“One of the reasons of Trump’s surge is attributable to seemingly strong support from the women” added Mukherjee.

The latest Suffolk poll gives Hillary a 20 point lead among women.

[Longmire]

LA Times Daily Tracker Aug 21: Trump 45% Clinton 43%

[Gov Bean Counter]

"The survey contacted around 1,000 registered voters. Results are estimated to be accurate within 7.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20."

The only way Trump gets those numbers is if the sample was pulled from TOS.

[geronl]

7.1% makes it so inaccurate as to not pay attention to

[musiclady]

The latest Suffolk poll gives Hillary a 20 point lead among women.

And what has Trump done lately to improve his horrid numbers among women??

Has he suddenly stopped being a misogynist??

I don't THINK so.

Anything showing growth among women has got to be a fabrication.  He is despised by most women, and rightfully so.

[Vulcan]

7.1% makes it so inaccurate as to not pay attention to

The orange liberal idiot has been trailing the beast in PA by double digits.  And we're supposed to believe he's suddenly ahead post his disastrous past 3 weeks?   

Only a moron would believe this poll.

[sinkspur]

LA Times Daily Tracker Aug 21: Trump 45% Clinton 43%

A Favorable Poll for Donald Trump Seems to Have a Problem

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/09/upshot/a-favorable-poll-for-donald-trump-has-a-major-problem.html?_r=0

[SirLinksALot]

From CBS!!??

Penn us hurting and bleeding jobs. If the perception is foreigners are taking jobs away, Trump's message is resonating, it will eventually as people pay attention the closer we are to November

[ABX]

See notes on this thread:
http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,221543.0.html

This is pretty questionable. The story is just from an auto-feed free news release service, not actually by CBS.
The polling company never ran a poll before, they just started business and set up their website just a couple of months ago.
They are based out of Canada using an address shared by dozens of other companies (probably a mailing service).
They don't list methodology data, something normal with legitimate polls.
They have more than a 7% margin of error, well outside legitimate polling parameters.
Other than the automated free news release service, it doesn't appear this is being picked up officially by any wire.

[Oceander]

Trump’s lead is just inside the margin of error

In other words, Trump is not leading Clinton.  That is what margin of error means.

More stupidity and wishful thinking from Trump-lickers.

[Longmire]

A Favorable Poll for Donald Trump Seems to Have a Problem

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/09/upshot/a-favorable-poll-for-donald-trump-has-a-major-problem.html?_r=0

The dweeb who wrote that piece doesn't look old enough to have voted in 2012, much less provide insight/analysis on how that cycle's voting habits compare to this one. I'll trust the folks at USC instead, thank you.

He does wear 'smart' glasses tho...

[Oceander]

LA Times Daily Tracker Aug 21: Trump 45% Clinton 43%

/snicker

[sinkspur]

The dweeb who wrote that piece doesn't look old enough to have voted in 2012, much less provide insight/analysis on how that cycle's voting habits compare to this one. I'll trust the folks at USC instead, thank you.

He does wear 'smart' glasses tho...

The "dweeb who wrote that piece" knows  more about polling and analyzing polls than you know about why you support Trump.

http://www.politico.com/media/story/2015/01/meet-nate-cohn-new-york-times-new-young-gun-on-data-003282

[Fishrrman]

TomSea wrote:
"Good news, I saw an article too that Connecticut's economy might give the GOP nominee a chance."

Connecticut?
Economy?
What's left of it is more like it. Even GE is moving out...

Fairfield county, commuter country, still seems to be doing ok.

Trump probaby has a better chance here than any of the other candidates would have.
That's not saying he'll win.
It IS saying he'll win a larger share of the total vote.
Cruz would have gone nowhere here.

[mystery-ak]

I saw this poll earlier and didn't post it because of the 7.1 percent margin of error...worthless

[sinkspur]

Trump leads Clinton in Connecticut by 7.5 points

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ct/connecticut_trump_vs_clinton-5720.html

[Longmire]

The "dweeb who wrote that piece" knows  more about polling and analyzing polls than you know about why you support Trump.

And yet Cohn's complete "analysis" of the LA Times poll is that its skewed because it weights 2012 voters and according to him 2012 Romney voters are more likely to report they voted for Obama four years later. No data to back that supposition up, and no checking in with the USC research team for validation either.

He admits its a different methodology, but it must be flawed because he doesn't understand it.