White House Watch: Clinton 41%, Trump 39%, Johnson 9%, Stein 3%

[mystery-ak]

Thursday, August 18, 2016

The race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton continues to tighten as it moves further from the conventions, but both candidates are still struggling to close the deal.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online White House Watch survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Clinton with 41% support to Trump’s 39%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson picks up nine percent (9%) of the vote, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein trails with three percent (3%). Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Trump has been steadily losing ground since mid-July when his support peaked at 44%, while this is the second week in a row that Clinton's support has fallen from an identical 44% just after the Democratic National Convention. Clinton held a 43% to 40% edge over Trump last week.

more
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

[sinkspur]

Rasmussen.

[Longmire]

They've got to find a way to boost Johnson's numbers to make him eligible for the first debate.

More skewness!

[mystery-ak]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0

[Right_in_Virginia]

TTTT

[Longmire]

LA Times Daily tracker: Trump 44.2% Clinton 43.6%

Trump retakes the lead...

[bolobaby]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0

Two points:

1. The chart shows that Rasmussen is skewed in favor of Trump, so theoretically he's losing by even more.

2. I wonder how many of those Johnson and Castle supporters would vote R if the GOP has nominated just about anybody else?

Seems like Trump has ensured a loss for the GOP.

[jmyrlefuller]

Two points:

1. The chart shows that Rasmussen is skewed in favor of Trump, so theoretically he's losing by even more.

2. I wonder how many of those Johnson and Castle supporters would vote R if the GOP has nominated just about anybody else?

Seems like Trump has ensured a loss for the GOP.

It's hard to say how many people are supporting Castle, but as far as Johnson goes, he's probably being propped up about 5 times as much as your typical big-L Libertarian, and he's drawing from both sides.

Stein's drawing at Nader-like levels right now, which is pretty much as good as the Green Party is going to be able to muster.

[Longmire]

The chart shows that Rasmussen is skewed in favor of Trump, so theoretically he's losing by even more.

Actually the chart is from 2012 so its not clear from that how Rassmussen is currently pulling data.

If there is bias in favor of Republicans in this cycle than its justified based on how voters turned out in the primaries.

[sinkspur]

Actually the chart is from 2012 so its not clear from that how Rassmussen is currently pulling data.

If there is bias in favor of Republicans in this cycle than its justified based on how voters turned out in the primaries.

Democrat turnout ALWAYS eclipses Republican turnout in general elections.  Also, Dem registration is running way ahead of GOP registration right now, so there should be a greater weighting toward Democrats.

Pollsters don't pay attention to primary turnout.  They look at past turnout and other factors like enthusiasm and the favorables of the incumbent president.

Polls will likely tighten, but Trump can't afford even one mistake or one insult, or all this "new Trump" will be in the toilet.

[Longmire]

Pollsters don't pay attention to primary turnout.  They look at past turnout and other factors like enthusiasm and the favorables of the incumbent president.

So recent primary turnout showing great strength on the Republican side doesn't count but Dem registration and and Obama's "favorables" do? 

I told you those polls were cooked! 

Aug 20 LA Times Daily Tracker: Trump 44.2% Clinton 43.6%

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Polls will likely tighten, but Trump can't afford even one mistake or one insult, or all this "new Trump" will be in the toilet.

We all know Trump can't keep his big fat mouth shut.

[jmyrlefuller]

So recent primary turnout showing great strength on the Republican side doesn't count but Dem registration and and Obama's "favorables" do? 

I told you those polls were cooked! 

Aug 20 LA Times Daily Tracker: Trump 44.2% Clinton 43.6%

Both sides had high turnout. Clinton's machine to suppress the Bernie votes, and everyone else trying to stop Trump.

[Applewood]

Interesting that Johnson is at 9%.  Doesn't sound like much and of course, he has a snowball's chance in hell of winning, but could this be an indication of a voter rebellion against both loser political parties?

[truth_seeker]

Trump has absorbed the best that the democrats and the phony Republicans/conservatives can sling against him.

Maybe time for Romney to gather Kristol, Jeb Bush and their establishment cronies at Sea Island again and come up with yet another of their plans.

Maybe something like starting with 17 candidates, French, McMullin or yet another example of 2016 Republican brilliance.

[Oceander]

Trump has absorbed the best that the democrats and the phony Republicans/conservatives can sling against him.

Maybe time for Romney to gather Kristol, Jeb Bush and their establishment cronies at Sea Island again and come up with yet another of their plans.

Maybe something like starting with 17 candidates, French, McMullin or yet another example of 2016 Republican brilliance.

/snicker

They haven't even begun.

[sinkspur]

Ron Fournier ‏@ron_fournier  23m23 minutes ago
Sometimes I think ...

@HillaryClinton is purposely driving down her trust #

and @realDonaldTrump is purposely tanking his temperament #

[sinkspur]

So recent primary turnout showing great strength on the Republican side doesn't count but Dem registration and and Obama's "favorables" do? 

I told you those polls were cooked! 

Aug 20 LA Times Daily Tracker: Trump 44.2% Clinton 43.6%

It's an outlier.  That means it stands alone in predicting Trump as leading.

[Longmire]

It's an outlier.  That means it stands alone in predicting Trump as leading.

No, its a leading indicator.

A few days ago I was telling you Trump was closing the gap, now Rasmussen is saying the same thing.

[Oceander]

No, its a leading indicator.

A few days ago I was telling you Trump was closing the gap, now Rasmussen is saying the same thing.

Wishing it so won't make it so.  This isn't the safe space, you know.

[Idiot]

/snicker

They haven't even begun.

LOL....isn't that the truth.  Wait until the Olympics are over.  Every businessman that Trump has ever screwed will be coming out of the woodwork.

[Longmire]

Both sides had high turnout.

Actually Dem turnout was down 20% and GOP turnout was up 60% this cycle and many polls haven't taken that into consideration.

Without the excitement generated by Sanders in the primary, Dem turnout in the general will be lower and if Trump steals the black vote lower still.

[truth_seeker]

Actually Dem turnout was down 20% and GOP turnout was up 60% this cycle and many polls haven't taken that into consideration.

Without the excitement generated by Sanders in the primary, Dem turnout in the general will be lower and if Trump steals the black vote lower still.

Well worth repeating. The GOP primary turnout was way up. While detractors note Trump got relatively small total percent in winning, he got the biggest popular vote ever, for primaries. And there were 17 candidates to begin, and several stayed in a long time.

For the dems, even with Sanders, they had dismal totals.

But the professional polling formulas apply the same GOP/dem/other weighting, as used in 2012. IOW they do NOT account for the additions for Trump.

And the democrat weighting does NOT account for the fact Sanders voters may not support her cankleness. Some progressives go to Jill Stein, some even to Gary Reefertarian Johnson.

[sinkspur]

No, its a leading indicator.

A few days ago I was telling you Trump was closing the gap, now Rasmussen is saying the same thing.

Nonsense.  The LA Times poll has been out of sync with EVERY OTHER POLL.  And Rasmussen has a distinct Republican bias and has had it for years.

Hillary is still six points up in the RCP averages, even with these two goofy polls factored in.  So there's no "closing the gap."  Not yet.

[sinkspur]

Well worth repeating. The GOP primary turnout was way up. While detractors note Trump got relatively small total percent in winning, he got the biggest popular vote ever, for primaries. And there were 17 candidates to begin, and several stayed in a long time.

For the dems, even with Sanders, they had dismal totals.

But the professional polling formulas apply the same GOP/dem/other weighting, as used in 2012. IOW they do NOT account for the additions for Trump.

And the democrat weighting does NOT account for the fact Sanders voters may not support her cankleness. Some progressives go to Jill Stein, some even to Gary Reefertarian Johnson.

Sanders voters are supporting Hillary.  She has 93% Democrat support.  Jill Stein has 2%.

Trump has 79% Republican support.  He can't win with that number or even come close.