By Scott Clement, Laura Vozzella and Gregory S. Schneider August 16 at 7:00 AM
Hillary Clinton holds a commanding lead over Donald Trump in Virginia, with disdain for the Republican presidential nominee helping Clinton overcome her own vulnerabilities, a new Washington Post poll finds.
Clinton leads Trump by a 14-point margin — 52 percent to 38 percent — among registered voters in the state and by an eight-point margin among likely voters, 51 percent to 43 percent. Clinton’s edge dips to seven points among likely voters when third-party candidates are included.
Aside from the rural southwestern part of the state, Clinton’s lead spans all regions, most by a wide margin. She trounces Trump among minority voters, and slashes the advantage Republicans usually count on among whites in Virginia.
The results suggest how difficult it could be for the GOP nominee to win what had been considered a crucial swing state. Virginia had gone red for presidential candidates for decades until Barack Obama broke the streak in 2008 and won it again in 2012. In those years, Virginians favored Obama by a nearly identical margin as the country overall, even closer than longtime bellwether Ohio. With its changing demographics, especially in the fast-growing suburbs around Washington, the state may not even be competitive for Trump.
That would be bad news for Trump, whose path to the White House would be much more difficult without Virginia and its 13 electoral votes. To compensate, he would have to pick up support from other states, such as Pennsylvania, that have been far less friendly to Republicans.
A slew of other recent surveys find Clinton is leading Trump in most swing states and challenging him in others that routinely vote Republican. Clinton leads by at least 10 points in Colorado and New Hampshire and holds single-digit edges in Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. The two run about even in Iowa and Nevada, as well as in Georgia, a state Mitt Romney won by eight points in 2012.
If Trump loses Virginia, he would need to sweep all of these states to surpass the 270 electoral-vote threshold, unless he upsets Clinton in Democratic-leaning Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Michigan. Polls show Clinton leads in all three states by about 10 percentage points or more.
More:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/trump-unpopularity-fuels-wide-lead-for-clinton-in-new-virginia-poll/2016/08/15/ea0e1540-6307-11e6-be4e-23fc4d4d12b4_story.html
