Down 9 in Florida, we have to ask: When is Donald Trump going to try to win this election?

[Wingnut]

 By Philip Bump August 16 at 2:09 PM

Trump campaigns in Florida. (EPA/CRISTOBAL HERRERA)

OK, look. To be elected president, Donald Trump needs to win more electoral votes than Hillary Clinton. One simple yardstick to measure that is to see where Trump outperforms Mitt Romney in 2012; after all, Romney lost, so Trump needs to do better than Romney. Flip at least one or two states that voted for President Obama four years ago.

The most likely candidates for that would seem to be the states that Obama won most narrowly: Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado, in that order -- setting aside North Carolina, which was second-closest but which Romney won.
10 states where the race between Clinton and Trump could be tight



In Virginia and Colorado, both Hillary Clinton and the largest super PAC supporting her are pulling ads because they're up by so much: 11 points in Colorado according to the most recent RealClearPolitics (RCP) average of polls and 10 in Virginia, after The Post's new poll released on Tuesday. Those numbers could change, but those are pretty big leads with 80-odd days to go. They're pull-your-ads big. (Oh, and North Carolina, the close state that Romney won? Clinton leads there, too.)

Florida, though, has been interesting. A state with a large nonwhite population, it has been relatively close for Trump, with RCP showing him down 3.6 points in polling. And then, on Tuesday afternoon, a new poll from Monmouth University: Clinton 48, Trump 39. A 9-point spread.

Why's Trump falling behind in Florida? The same reasons he's falling behind everywhere else. Clinton gets 92 percent of the vote from Democrats; Trump gets only 79 percent of the vote from Republicans. Trump has a lead of 40 points among white men, a group Romney won by 30. But white women back Clinton by 10 points and Romney won them in 2012 by 17 points. That 10-point swing for Trump among men is more than offset by that 27-point swing among women.

Even before the Monmouth poll the RCP average in Florida favored Clinton by 3.6 points -- not insurmountable, but grim. Now it's 4.5 points.

We can compare to the past two cycles and see that in 2008 Obama closed a bigger gap than that to win in the state. He closed a smaller gap in 2012, though the average was also 2 points off of the actual results.
More:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/16/down-9-in-florida-we-have-to-ask-when-is-donald-trump-going-to-try-to-win-this-election/

[LadyLiberty]

In Virginia and Colorado, both Hillary Clinton and the largest super PAC supporting her are pulling ads because they're up by so much: 11 points in Colorado according to the most recent RealClearPolitics (RCP) average of polls and 10 in Virginia, after The Post's new poll released on Tuesday. Those numbers could change, but those are pretty big leads with 80-odd days to go. They're pull-your-ads big. (Oh, and North Carolina, the close state that Romney won? Clinton leads there, too.)

How telling.  Trump's got a lot of catching up to do on ground game, use of data, ads, and GOTV effort.  Time for him to shoot himself in the foot again.

[Idaho_Cowboy]

The next person to tell me Trump is a 'fighter' is going to get it. This is ridiculous. By the time mighty Casey grits his teeth and swings Hillary will be swearing in (or whatever you call it in her case).

[Gov Bean Counter]

The 12th of never?

[ABX]

When is Donald Trump going to try to win this election?

Here is the big question I've been asking. If his actual goal was to lose, what would he do differently than he is doing now?

[libertybele]

Here is the big question I've been asking. If his actual goal was to lose, what would he do differently than he is doing now?

That's it in a nutshell.  He's already accomplished the goal of halting the conservative movement and splintering/destroying the GOP.  All he needs to do next is lose. 

[ABX]

That's it in a nutshell.  He's already accomplished the goal of halting the conservative movement and splintering/destroying the GOP.  All he needs to do next is lose.

..and he is destroying Conservatives who actually stood for values against the entrenched political class. Ted Cruz and Scott Walker for example. He has made the establishment more powerful and silenced those who speak against them.

Far worse is he has made a voting block of million who once stood for Conservatism now follow him and parrot him in his destruction of actual Conservative values and politicians.

[Wingnut]

I heard Trump just bought the rights and name for the TV show "The Biggest Loser"  Next spring it will be revamped and follow him as he tries to pick up the pieces of his broken life.

[geronl]

Well, Trump has disastrously thrown away the minority and women vote but he can make up the difference by attracting the Tranny vote!

[geronl]

I heard Trump just bought the rights and name for the TV show "The Biggest Loser"  Next spring it will be revamped and follow him as he tries to pick up the pieces of his broken life.

Rumors suggest Trump wouldn't be able to buy fuel for his plane if it weren't for the campaign $$$

[HonestJohn]

Trump is trying to win.

He and his followers live in a massive echo chamber, so they actually think that his statements and positions are widely supported.  However, in reality they are not.

We suffered the exact same thing in 2012, thinking Romney would win.  The problems were identified and solutions offered then, too. 

The problem is that our GOP primary voter "knows the truth 'cuz Rush  (Hannity, Breitbart, WND) said it!" and is consistently doubling-down on losing propositions.

Until the GOP removes these brainwashed cultists from the primary process, we will continue to lose by greater and greater margins.

[geronl]

Until the GOP removes these brainwashed cultists from the primary process, we will continue to lose by greater and greater margins.

No more open primaries!

[Wingnut]

The fat lady is warming up at Carnegie Hall.

[guitar4jesus]

The fat lady is warming up at Carnegie Hall.

[Wingnut]

Attila The Hen!

[starstruck]

By Philip Bump August 16 at 2:09 PM

Trump campaigns in Florida. (EPA/CRISTOBAL HERRERA)

OK, look. To be elected president, Donald Trump needs to win more electoral votes than Hillary Clinton. One simple yardstick to measure that is to see where Trump outperforms Mitt Romney in 2012; after all, Romney lost, so Trump needs to do better than Romney. Flip at least one or two states that voted for President Obama four years ago.

The most likely candidates for that would seem to be the states that Obama won most narrowly: Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado, in that order -- setting aside North Carolina, which was second-closest but which Romney won.
10 states where the race between Clinton and Trump could be tight



In Virginia and Colorado, both Hillary Clinton and the largest super PAC supporting her are pulling ads because they're up by so much: 11 points in Colorado according to the most recent RealClearPolitics (RCP) average of polls and 10 in Virginia, after The Post's new poll released on Tuesday. Those numbers could change, but those are pretty big leads with 80-odd days to go. They're pull-your-ads big. (Oh, and North Carolina, the close state that Romney won? Clinton leads there, too.)

Florida, though, has been interesting. A state with a large nonwhite population, it has been relatively close for Trump, with RCP showing him down 3.6 points in polling. And then, on Tuesday afternoon, a new poll from Monmouth University: Clinton 48, Trump 39. A 9-point spread.

But the Trump road show is out drawing the Hillary show by thousands of people. That's all that matters. Right?

[Wingnut]

But the Trump road show is out drawing the Hillary show by thousands of people. That's all that matters. Right?

They always pack em in at Brother Trumps Traveling Salvation show.

[roamer_1]

Attila The Hen!

 

[ABX]

They always pack em in at Brother Trumps Traveling Salvation show.

As a little reminder, Romney was drawing yuge crowds compared to Obama in 2012.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82348_Page2.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-10-13/romney-s-crowds-grow-as-obama-prepares-for-n-y-debate

At that, Romney's crowds were dwarfing what Trump is currently pulling.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/11/wow-20000-30000-turn-out-to-see-romney-ryan-in-ohio-obama-draws-crowds-less-than-4000/

And even McCain drew bigger crowds.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/332413/obama-attracting-smaller-crowds-mccain-08-eliana-johnson
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=5755471&page=1

These obviously weren't indicators of anything that translated to votes.

I actually think there is a bit of a strategy on the Dem part to have smaller audiences- keeping it more controlled, being able to stack it for just the right image, etc.

Be cautious about pulling a freeper mistake and getting all excited because of crowd size.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2953804/posts

[geronl]

Be cautious about pulling a freeper mistake and getting all excited because of crowd size.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2953804/posts

That guy is a Trumper now, not really surprising

[Victoria33]

The fat lady is warming up at Carnegie Hall.

He isn't winning Florida, Penn., or Virginia, don't think he is winning Ohio, and without those states he will not win.  If he even loses Florida and Penn., he isn't going to win.  I am watching his speech tonight in Wisconsin and he is once again reading from a teleprompter, looking from side to side and sticking to the exact script.  We would have a president who would be off his rocker unless someone wrote down what he could say every day, walk around with a pad with the only words he could say on it.  Man, I hope he doesn't win.