The Roanoke Times
http://www.heraldcourier.com/opinion/virginia-may-not-be-considered-a-swing-state-in-november/article_c12d51e9-dd2f-5973-9e7d-6f13d3730312.htmlWell, that was fun while it lasted.
We refer, of course, to Virginia’s run as a swing state. For decades, Virginia was a lock for Republicans in presidential years. Then, in 2008 and 2012, we enjoyed newfound status as a battleground state.
Well, Republicans may not have enjoyed it, based on the outcome – but least we all got to see candidates from both parties up close and personal. We went into 2016 expecting to be a swing state again. The National Journal even pegged Virginia as the swing state, the state most likely to determine the outcome. That was back in January. Now it’s August, and look what’s happened.
Last week, two polls – the first conducted in the state since early July – gave Hillary Clinton double-digits leads in the Old Dominion -- 12 percentage points in one, 13 in another.
Previous polls in the state, conducted before both parties held their conventions, had put Clinton up anywhere from 5-7 percentage points, so she’s essentially doubled her lead. Even more interestingly, all the movement has been on the Clinton side. Donald Trump’s numbers are basically stagnant, while it’s Clinton who has picked up support. (In the CBS/You Gov poll: Clinton 49, Trump 37. In the NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll: Clinton 46, Trump 33.)
Is it possible we’re no longer a swing state, Trump’s recent visits to Roanoke, Loudoun County and Abingdon, notwithstanding?
It’s rarely wise to place all your bets on a single poll. The key variable in each poll is what it thinks the electorate will look like on Election Day, and nobody knows whether (a) Clinton will be able to generate the same turnout of Millennials and minorities that Barack Obama did twice and whether (b) Trump will be able to generate a bigger turnout than usual of blue-collar white voters.
Still, based on the best guesses of multiple pollsters working independently, the Virginia results are more or less in line with other polls, which show Clinton ahead in some surprising places: Arizona. Georgia. This week the Clinton campaign started moving money into both states. One of three things is happening here:
1. Clinton is starting to run away with the election after Trump’s disastrous post-convention rollout.
2. We’re seeing a realignment happening, with Democrats ascendant in suburbanizing Sun Belt states with large minority populations, while Trump makes inroads in previously Democratic bastions in the Rust Belt – although we haven’t seen the Midwestern numbers to support that yet.
3. Everything’s wrong because the polling models are wrong.
Feel free to pick whichever answer gives you the most comfort until we get a more definitive one on Nov. 8.
A political campaign is a numbers game. In a presidential year, that number is 270 – the number of electoral votes needed to win the White House. However, here are some others you might be interested in.
$0. That’s how much money the Clinton campaign is now spending on television advertising in Virginia. Its latest ad buy conspicuously omits Virginia, presumably because the campaign considers the state now safely in its corner. The campaign also has stopped buying time in Colorado, another swing state where Clinton leads. Instead, the campaign’s current ad buy is concentrated in seven other swing states – Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
$0. That’s how much the pro-Clinton political action committee Priorities USA Action is now spending on television time in Virginia. Ditto Colorado. Instead, the PAC has suspended its advertising here and is currently concentrating on the seven states listed above, although it’s set to start advertising in both Colorado and Virginia again next week. If you want to find out what a campaign thinks of its prospects, don’t ask it; just follow the money.
Based on these figures, you’ve got to think we won’t see Clinton in these parts (or even running mate Tim Kaine). If Kaine can’t secure Virginia for her, it’s hard to imagine Clinton herself could do so.
$0. That’s how much money the Trump campaign is spending on television advertising in Virginia right now.
$0. That’s also how much pro-Trump PACs have spent in Virginia.
Now, here’s the national context for those numbers:
$52 million. That’s how much money the Clinton campaign has already spent nationally so far on television time versus, wait for it . . .
$0. That’s right. We’re 100 days out from the election, and the Trump campaign hasn’t bought television time anywhere.
Now, as we’ve seen, lots of spending today happens through other groups, so let’s look at those.
$16 million. That’s how much money Priorities USA Action has spent nationally on television time, boosting the “Team Clinton” total to $68 million.
$6 million. That’s how much various pro-Trump groups have spent, to create a present bottom line of $68 million to $6 million. Out of that, Clinton has targeted $13.6 million alone just on the Olympics.
Let’s look at some more numbers:
$98 million. That’s how much more airtime Clinton and pro-Clinton groups have bought this fall, with the vast majority of that concentrated on those nine swing states. Virginia is among those, but the amount purchased in Virginia is the smallest of any of the states being targeted, according to the media firm SMG Delta. By contrast . . .
$817,000. That’s how much money the Trump campaign and pro-Trump groups have bought this fall, with most of it in just three states – Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania – and none of it in Virginia.
Have we ever seen such an imbalance of resources in a presidential campaign?
Either Trump has figured out a new way to campaign – and given his success so far with Twitter and “free media,” you’ve got to admit that’s possible – or his amateurish campaign is getting outclassed. It’s one thing to win a party’s nomination; it’s quite another to run a general election campaign.
You can also turn all these numbers around and ask: For as much as Clinton is outspending Trump, why isn’t she up even more in the polls? The answer to that question might also be expressed by a number:
33,000. That’s the number of Clinton’s deleted emails that Trump invited the Russians to find, jokingly or otherwise.
