Doubting a Down-Ballot Wave...Charlie Cook

[mystery-ak]

Doubting a Down-Ballot Wave
It’s clear that Hillary Clinton is winning, but much less so that her victory would have a big effect on other races.

The latest ABC News/Wash­ing­ton Post poll puts Hil­lary Clin­ton ahead of Don­ald Trump by 8 points in the three-way tri­al heat, while both the Fox News and NBC News/Wall Street Journ­al polls have the former sec­ret­ary of State ahead by 9 points. CNN pegs her lead at 8 points, and CBS at 5 points. So there isn’t much ques­tion who is ahead, only how real and dur­able that lead is, how much of it is bounce or froth—and how strongly the ef­fects will be felt down-bal­lot.

It’s clear that Demo­crats had the more suc­cess­ful con­ven­tion and that Clin­ton has had a strong run and Trump a very bad run since, but it’s un­real­ist­ic to think that she is go­ing to sail through the Nov. 8 elec­tion only hav­ing weeks as good as the last few have been. It would be very hard and pretty un­likely for Clin­ton to sus­tain a lead of this kind the rest of the way.

more
https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/640214?unlock=8GPDHEXDMFB3NIU5&mref=homepage-free

[Night Hides Not]

Doubting a Down-Ballot Wave
It’s clear that Hillary Clinton is winning, but much less so that her victory would have a big effect on other races.

The latest ABC News/Wash­ing­ton Post poll puts Hil­lary Clin­ton ahead of Don­ald Trump by 8 points in the three-way tri­al heat, while both the Fox News and NBC News/Wall Street Journ­al polls have the former sec­ret­ary of State ahead by 9 points. CNN pegs her lead at 8 points, and CBS at 5 points. So there isn’t much ques­tion who is ahead, only how real and dur­able that lead is, how much of it is bounce or froth—and how strongly the ef­fects will be felt down-bal­lot.

It’s clear that Demo­crats had the more suc­cess­ful con­ven­tion and that Clin­ton has had a strong run and Trump a very bad run since, but it’s un­real­ist­ic to think that she is go­ing to sail through the Nov. 8 elec­tion only hav­ing weeks as good as the last few have been. It would be very hard and pretty un­likely for Clin­ton to sus­tain a lead of this kind the rest of the way.

more
https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/640214?unlock=8GPDHEXDMFB3NIU5&mref=homepage-free

I'll go a step further: no matter who wins, "triangulation" will the operative word for the next two years. Congress is completely divided, and no one will have a cloture proof majority like Obama had for most of his first two years.

Both Clinton and Trump will do whatever they have to, without resorting to numerous Executive Orders.

I could be wrong, I just don't see any coattails for either winner.

[ScottinVA]

The chances of GOP downticket candidates' victories will be directly related to how much distance they can put between themselves and Trump.  Trump is nothing more than political kryptonite, who will severely drag down anyone who aligns with him. 

[Suppressed]

The chances of GOP downticket candidates' victories will be directly related to how much distance they can put between themselves and Trump.  Trump is nothing more than political kryptonite, who will severely drag down anyone who aligns with him.

The thing I fear most is that Dem GOTV efforts will bring in more voters, with GOP voters staying home.  That's how the down-ticket will be hurt.

[Frank Cannon]

The thing I fear most is that Dem GOTV efforts will bring in more voters, with GOP voters staying home.  That's how the down-ticket will be hurt.

Generally when the Rats bus people in for a Presidential election, they are too stupid to vote past the top of the ticket. They are going to go in the booth, pull the lever for Hitlary and go out to the bus to collect their Malt Liqueur.