The Primary Model 87%-99% Certain Trump Will Be President http://primarymodel.com/Primaries Predict Election Winner -- Cycle Also Favors GOP —
Forecast Model Batting 5 for 5 (since 1996)
Helmut Norpoth
It is 87% to 99% certain that Donald Trump will win the presidential election on November 8, 2016; 87% if running against Hillary Clinton, 99% if against Bernie Sanders.
These predictions come from primarymodel.com
It is a statistical model that relies on presidential primaries and an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election.
Winning the early primaries is a major key for electoral victory in November. Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and the South Carolina while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders split the Democratic primaries in those states.
What favors the GOP in 2016 as well, no matter if Trump is the nominee or any other Republican, is the cycle of presidential elections. After two terms of Democrat Barack Obama in the White House the electoral pendulum is poised to swing to the GOP this year.
...
In a match-up between the Republican primary winner and each of the Democratic contenders, Donald Trump is predicted to defeat Hillary Clinton by 52.5% to 47.5% of the two-party vote. He would defeat Bernie Sanders by 57.7% to 42.3%.
For the record, the PRIMARY MODEL, with slight modifications, has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in all five presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996. In recent elections the forecast has been issued as early as January of the election year.
Presidential elections going back as far as 1912 are used to estimate the weight of primary performance. It was in 1912 that presidential primaries were introduced. That year the candidate who won his party’s primary vote, Woodrow Wilson, went on to defeat the candidate who lost his party’s primary vote, William Howard Taft. As a rule, the candidate with the stronger primary performance wins against the candidate with the weaker primary performance. For elections from 1912 to 2012 the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner, albeit retroactively, every time except in 1960.
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About the Author
Helmut Norpoth
Professor. Ph.D., University of Michigan, 1974.
Department of Political Science
Stony Brook University
Stony Brook, N.Y. 11794-4392
(631) 632-7640 (office)
(631) 632-4116 (fax)
Helmut.Norpoth@StonyBrook.edu
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