Insiders to Trump: Drop out'I’d rather take our chances with nearly anyone else than continue with this certain loser who will likely cost the Senate and much more,' said a New Hampshire Republican.
By STEVEN SHEPARD 08/05/16 05:18 AM EDT
Amid widespread chatter that Donald Trump could drop out of the presidential race before Election Day, Republican insiders in key battleground states have a message for The Donald: Get out.
That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 11 swing states. The majority of GOP insiders, 70 percent, said they want Trump to drop out of the race and be replaced by another Republican candidate — with many citing Trump’s drag on Republicans in down-ballot races. But those insiders still think it’s a long-shot Trump would actually end his campaign and be replaced by another GOP candidate.
“I’d rather take our chances with nearly anyone else than continue with this certain loser who will likely cost the Senate and much more,” said a New Hampshire Republican — who, like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously.
“The effect Trump is having on down-ballot races has the potential to be devastating in November,” added a Florida Republican. “His negative image among Hispanics, women and independents is something that could be devastating to Republicans. Trump’s divisive rhetoric to the Hispanic community at large has the potential to be devastating for years to come.”
Trump has given no indication that he’s considering quitting, and his campaign insists his perseverance is one of his best attributes. But two network reports recently suggested senior GOP leaders were eyeing how that process would work, just in case.
A Trump exit from the race after he’s been formally nominated would trigger a rarely used vacancy rule in the national Republican Party’s rulebook. That rule empowers the Republican National Committee — a 168-member panel that includes three GOP leaders from every state and territory — to select a replacement. The RNC is also authorized to reconvene the national convention, which would be all but logistically impossible.
The RNC is extremely sensitive to any suggestion that it — the party establishment — is attempting to supplant the will of grass-roots Republicans, so invoking this process is already fraught with peril. But if the RNC’s 168 members convened to pick a substitute candidate, each state’s votes would be weighted based on the size of their delegation to last month’s convention.
In this scenario, Republicans would likely struggle to find a consensus nominee, but immediate options would include Sen. Ted Cruz (the runner-up in the GOP primary), Trump running mate Mike Pence and House Speaker Paul Ryan.
Insiders suggested a handful of replacement candidates: A Florida Republican said Ryan “is the only one who can unite the party,” while multiple others plugged Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
But just because GOP insiders want Trump out of the race doesn’t mean they think he will oblige them. Asked about the possibility, a 58 percent majority think it’s certain Trump will stay in through Election Day, including many who want him out of the race. Two insiders compared the odds of Trump dropping out to them winning the Powerball drawing — two extremely unlikely events with relative equal desirability.
“I also wish I could lose 20 pounds, cut 5 shots off my handicap and play the piano,” a New Hampshire Republican added. “None of those things will happen, and neither will Trump drop out.”
“Here is the quandary I find myself in,” an Ohio Republican said. “While I would love for Trump to drop out and anyone else to take the mantle, that kind of talk will only harden his supporters. We cannot let them think we stole this from them. There has never been a better example of ‘damned if you do, damned if you don't.’”
A number of insiders cited Trump’s ego as proof he won’t slink away from the campaign before voters have their say.
“He is an egomaniac,” a Colorado Republican said. “There is no chance he would voluntarily exit the race.”
“He’s not going anywhere. His ego wouldn’t allow it,” a Virginia Republican added. “He'll dominate the news for the next three months, each day more painful than the last, finally lose, say it was rigged and get a new [television] show.”
Democrats mostly agreed Trump would see his campaign through to the end. A similar percentage, 55 percent, expressed confidence Trump would stay in the race, while 45 percent said it was possible he could drop out.
“Not for a second do I believe that to be a possibility,” said a New Hampshire Democrat. “His ego is way too big for that. It is also too big to entertain the possibility of a loss. Thus, we see this week the beginning of a very vocal narrative about the ‘rigged’ system that may cost him the election. If he loses, and I believe he will, God help us all because Trump and his minions will foment an uprising of epic proportions.”
A handful of insiders said they wanted Trump to stay in, but not because they believe in his ability to win or capability to serve as president. If Trump stays in and loses, they said, it could help the party heal itself after the election.
“Trump won the nomination,” a Michigan Republican said. “He should lose fair and square. Only then will the party base have to reckon with what they've done.”
“I want Trump to feel the blame for this loss,” added an Iowa Republican, “not put it on the doorstep of ‘the Establishment.’”
The Iowa Republican predicted that rumors of a Trump exit are likely only to get louder: “Talk of Trump dropping out will reach a fevered pitch next week, when his poll numbers bottom out,” the Republican said. “We need to brace ourselves.”
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