SOURCE:
HOTAIR.COMURL:
http://hotair.com/archives/2016/08/04/more-state-polls-trump-suddenly-down-big-in-pennsylvania-and-michigan/by: AllahPundit
The national polls this week might be hair-raising but you can always throw those out if you like on grounds that we don’t hold national elections for president. National polls are useful as a measure of broad trends, and of course there’s some correlation between them and state polls, but in the end it’s only the latter that matter. Hillary can win every blue state by 80 points, but if Trump wins all the reds and purples by one point each, he’s president.
That being so, you can make the case that this new one out of Pennsylvania is the single most devastating poll he’s had all year. For two reasons. One: As anyone watching the election knows (or should know) by now, Pennsylvania is all but a must-win for Trump. His surest and possibly only realistic path to the White House is to hold all of Romney’s states in 2012 and then hit the swing-state trifecta in Florida, Ohio, and yes, Pennsylvania. That would push him just past 270 electoral votes. And it’s possible he’ll do it — in theory. He won the Florida primary easily and has appeal to working-class whites in the panhandle there; Pennsylvania, meanwhile, has been trending red in voter registrations. If his populism gets whites in the Rust Belt to turn out, Ohio and Pennsylvania are doable. Again, in theory.
In practice, he’s in deep trouble. Franklin & Marshall has it 49/38 for Clinton among likely voters head-to-head. Among registered voters, in a four-way race with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, she leads 47/34. Last night I guessed in the post about the Fox News poll that Republicans wouldn’t truly panic over Trump until he’s polling in the mid-30s and facing something like a 15-point deficit. Welp, here you go.
She leads on every presidential attribute tested — including honesty and trustworthiness. The convention seems not to have helped Trump either, as other polls have found:
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