How big is Hillary Clinton's convention bounce?

[mystery-ak]

 How big is Hillary Clinton's convention bounce?

A fresh set of post-Democratic convention polls shows a sudden shift toward the Democratic nominee.

By Steven Shepard

08/02/16 06:00 AM EDT

Hillary Clinton just out-bounced Donald Trump.

An initial set of post-convention polls out this week shows a sudden swing toward the newly minted Democratic presidential nominee and suggests Clinton begins the three-month sprint to the general election with a consistent — but not insurmountable — advantage.

Five new public surveys, each conducted over the weekend following Democrats’ national party convention, give Clinton a lead ranging from 3 to 9 points. Four of the five pollsters point to a clear Clinton bump, having found Trump ahead or down by only a single point the week before.

What’s also clear is that bump exceeds the rise in support for Trump after his convention the week prior. While Trump called his bounce “the biggest bump in the history of conventions,” the best poll for him showed his support ticking up 6 points, while other polls showed no change or a nominal Trump boost.

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http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/how-big-is-hillary-clintons-convention-bounce-226545

[sinkspur]

Voters who aren't paying much attention and have no strong feelings one way or the other tend to be influenced by who's ahead.  Psychologically they want to be with the winner. 

So Hillary's lead will probably expand, especially as the Khan affect shows itself more over the next week. Absent a major outside event or a major gaffe by either candidate, nothing will change until the debates.  Rumors are rife that Trump only wants one debate, which would be a huge roll of the dice for him.  He hasn't had a one-on-one debate with anybody, and he is certainly deficient on facts.  Hillary's a wonk, so my own view is that she would run rings around him.

Trump's the wild card.  There's almost nothing he can do to help himself and a whole lot he can do to damage his chances.