USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election Poll Trump 45.1 Clinton 41.7

[truth_seeker]

USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election Poll Trump 45.1 Clinton 41.7

07-24-2016, 07:28 AM

The 2016 USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election Poll represents a pioneering approach to tracking changes in Americans’ opinions throughout a campaign for the White House. Around 3000 respondents in our representative panel are asked questions on a regular basis on what they care about most in the election, and on their attitudes toward their preferred candidates. The "Daybreak poll" is updated just after midnight every day of the week.

Excerpt. See https://uasdata.usc.edu/data/election-poll for more details

http://www.wearesc.com/forums/forum/main-category/off-topic/872690-usc-dornsife-la-times-presidential-election-poll-trump-45-1-clinton-41-7

About the Survey✝:

The USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll is part of the ongoing Understanding America Study: (UAS) at the University of Southern California’s (USC) Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Los Angeles Times. Every day, we invite one-seventh of the members of the UAS election panel to answer three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that… (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win? As their answers come in, we update the charts daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week’s responses. To find out more about what lies behind the vote, each week we also ask respondents one or two extra questions about their preferences and values. The team responsible for the USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Poll four years ago developed the successful RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll, which was based on the same methodology.

[Mesaclone]

USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election Poll Trump 45.1 Clinton 41.7

07-24-2016, 07:28 AM

The 2016 USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election Poll represents a pioneering approach to tracking changes in Americans’ opinions throughout a campaign for the White House. Around 3000 respondents in our representative panel are asked questions on a regular basis on what they care about most in the election, and on their attitudes toward their preferred candidates. The "Daybreak poll" is updated just after midnight every day of the week.

Excerpt. See https://uasdata.usc.edu/data/election-poll for more details

http://www.wearesc.com/forums/forum/main-category/off-topic/872690-usc-dornsife-la-times-presidential-election-poll-trump-45-1-clinton-41-7

About the Survey✝:

The USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll is part of the ongoing Understanding America Study: (UAS) at the University of Southern California’s (USC) Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Los Angeles Times. Every day, we invite one-seventh of the members of the UAS election panel to answer three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that… (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win? As their answers come in, we update the charts daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week’s responses. To find out more about what lies behind the vote, each week we also ask respondents one or two extra questions about their preferences and values. The team responsible for the USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Poll four years ago developed the successful RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll, which was based on the same methodology.

Careful. With this kind of positive news you'll get the Hillary supporters all riled up.

[sinkspur]

From the methodology:

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Do you use a likely voter model?
A: No, the respondents provide us with their own subjective probability of voting and we use that to weight their responses.

Q: Who is eligible to participate in the Daybreak poll?
A: Any US citizen 18 and older

Q: How does UAS select respondents within a household?
A: All household members 18 and older are invited to participate

This is a self-selecting poll.   It's meaningless.

[Mesaclone]

From the methodology:

This is a self-selecting poll.   It's meaningless.

That's a standard polling screen. What the heck are you talking about? Those polled are not self selected, only their likelihood to vote...and that is a common method of many polling firms. I'd prefer they use other data, past voting practices for one...but that is intensely expensive research and only the larger corporate polling services use that method.

[jmyrlefuller]

That's a standard polling screen. What the heck are you talking about?

That's not what you guys were saying back when similar polls showed Trump trailing badly.

[TomSea]

You can point to convention ratings or Cruz or the plagiarism story but overall, it was a very very successful convention with a minimum amount of trouble per protesters.

A lot of people don't keep up with the news and are not news junkies so some of the smaller stories are barely recognized by a great a number of Americans.

[sinkspur]

That's a standard polling screen. What the heck are you talking about? Those polled are not self selected, only their likelihood to vote...and that is a common method of many polling firms. I'd prefer they use other data, past voting practices for one...but that is intensely expensive research and only the larger corporate polling services use that method.

All household members 18 and older are invited to participate

What is that if not self-selecting?