FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver Predicts Hillary Clinton Wins Election Against Donald Trump

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

This morning on ABC's “Good Morning America,” FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver predicted that Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election against Donald Trump.

Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning, compared with Trump's 20 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast.

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Chances of winning the election according to @FiveThirtyEight and @NateSilver538:
Clinton - 79%
Trump - 20%
7:16 AM - 29 Jun 2016
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"We're at halftime of the election right now," Silver said. "She's taking a 7-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime. There's a lot of football left to be played. She's ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll."

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Silver said "both candidates have a lot of room to grow," but the only recent candidate to blow a lead like the one Clinton holds was Massachusetts' then-Gov. Michael Dukakis in 1988.

"Trump has never been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign," Silver said. "He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent."

Silver called 49 states correctly in the 2008 presidential election and got all 50 in 2012.

FiveThirtyEight launches its general election forecast later today here.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fivethirtyeights-nate-silver-predicts-hillary-clinton-wins-election/story?id=40213871

[Mechanicos]

Isn’t this the same guy who said Trump had only a 5% chance of winning the Republican nomination?
http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/04/7-times-nate-silver-was-hilariously-wrong-about-donald-trump/

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Isn’t this the same guy who said Trump had only a 5% chance of winning the Republican nomination?
http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/04/7-times-nate-silver-was-hilariously-wrong-about-donald-trump/

I don't see anything to indicate he is wrong this time around.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Isn’t this the same guy who said Trump had only a 5% chance of winning the Republican nomination?
http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/04/7-times-nate-silver-was-hilariously-wrong-about-donald-trump/

He gave the GOP too much credit for their intelligence and sanity.

[ScottinVA]

I have no doubt Silver is right; the only question is by how much... and how much the Trumptanic disaster will drag down the rest of the GOP ticket.  The loss of the Senate is probably a fait accompli..  what remains is whether Nancy Pelosi will again become Speaker.

What IS known is Trump is giving the dems a boost way beyond their wildest dreams.

[ScottinVA]

Isn’t this the same guy who said Trump had only a 5% chance of winning the Republican nomination?
http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/04/7-times-nate-silver-was-hilariously-wrong-about-donald-trump/

He's also the guy who correctly called the outcome of every state in 2012.  But on that 5% point, you're right.. he likely expected the GOP to wise up early and toss Trump aside like it should have before fall of 2015.

[catfish1957]

He's also the guy correctly called the outcome of every state in 2012.  But on that 5% point, you're right.. he likely expected the GOP to wise up early and toss Trump aside like it should have before fall of 2015.

IF conservative talk radio had called Trump out for what he really is last summer, we wouldn't be talking about this clown right now

Rush, et. al. gave this bozo credibility in a coy manner.  Now we will suffer for that.

[Mechanicos]

I don't see anything to indicate he is wrong this time around.

Cept his anti-Trump bias and failure record on all predictions involving Trump so far. Plus he relies on such obviously garbage polls people are laughing at them -  like the battleground one that cited to a marketing firm that brags it does not measure but manipulates people to do things.

[ScottinVA]

IF conservative talk radio had called Trump out for what he really is last summer, we wouldn't be talking about this clown right now

Rush, et. al. gave this bozo credibility in a coy manner.  Now we will suffer for that.

I couldn't agree more.  Trump would be back in his Towers, admiring himself in a gilded mirror and counting his money, and the country would be well on the way to stopping this destructive progressivist path of self-destruction.

[sinkspur]

Nate Silver's map:

[catfish1957]

Mississippi, South Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona in play?  That only just underscores how weak the Trump ticket will be.

[sinkspur]

Trump's ahead by 7 in Texas.  Romney won Texas by 16.   Trump's mercantilism will not play well in Texas, since exports are a huge business here.

[catfish1957]

Trump's ahead by 7 in Texas.  Romney won Texas by 16.   Trump's mercantilism will not play well in Texas, since exports are a huge business here.

Add the fact that many of us in Texas are extremely conservative.  And conservative is not what Trump is.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Cept his anti-Trump bias and failure record on all predictions involving Trump so far. Plus he relies on such obviously garbage polls people are laughing at them -  like the battleground one that cited to a marketing firm that brags it does not measure but manipulates people to do things.

I think Silver was unable to predict that some Republicans would throw away all their heartfelt convictions, standards, and morals to fellatiate the Beast of Revelations.

...you got something on your chin.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Did the impact of third parties figure into Nate's analysis?

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

He gives Gary Johnson a 1 in 10 chance of pulling off some EC votes:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/