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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-recession_us_5769539ce4b0a75709b7c788by: Ben Walsh
Donald Trump’s economic policies are so bad that they would produce the longest U.S. recession since the Great Depression, a report from economists at Moody’s Analytics found last week.
Assume, as the economists did, that Trump could implement his key economic policies — tax cuts skewed heavily to the one percent, mass deportation of illegal immigrants, and huge tariffs on imports from China and Mexico — during his first two years as president.
The result: the U.S. will go into recession at the start of 2018 and not emerge until 2020. Instead of 6 million new jobs being created, 3.4 million Americans would lose their jobs. Gross domestic product will fall by 2.4 percent. That’s a longer, though less severe, downturn than the Great Recession (which officially began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009).
The Moody’s economists summed up their warning:
Even allowing for some variability in the accuracy of the economic modeling and underlying assumptions that drive the analysis, four basic conclusions regarding the impact of Mr. Trump’s economic proposals can be reached: 1) they will result in a less global U.S. economy; 2) they will lead to larger government deficits and more debt; 3) they will largely benefit very high-income households; and 4) they will result in a weaker U.S. economy, with fewer jobs and higher unemployment.
To reach that conclusion, the economists took Trump’s stated policies and plugged them into their model for the U.S. economy. They noted that their model is similar to the ones used by the Federal Reserve and the Congressional Budget Office.
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