‘Missing’ White Voters Might Help Trump, But Less So Where He Needs It

[sinkspur]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/missing-white-voters-might-help-trump-but-less-so-where-he-needs-it/?ex_cid=story-twitter

‘Missing’ White Voters Might Help Trump, But Less So Where He Needs It

By David Wasserman


A common refrain is that demographics will ultimately doom Donald Trump’s candidacy. His most reliable supporters have been whites without college degrees — a group that made up 65 percent of voters in 1980 but is on pace to make up just 33 percent in 2016. Meanwhile, nonwhite voters, with whom Trump is extremely unpopular, rose from 12 percent of the electorate in 1980 to 28 percent in 2012.

However, there was one year during that period when the white share of the electorate ticked up 2 percentage points: 1992. What happened in 1992? It was the last time an ideology-defying, billionaire outsider stirred up a nationwide frenzy. For Democrats, Ross Perot is an eerie precedent.

The youngest voters in 2016 weren’t yet born when Perot appeared on the ballot, but the 1992 white uptick was probably attributable to the Texas tycoon’s 19 percent showing. Like Trump, Perot railed against NAFTA, promised to restore America’s greatness on the world stage and used unconventional gimmicks to draw attention to himself. And, roughly 94 percent of Perot’s voters were white. In the five elections since, white turnout has never been so high.

According to census data, 70 percent of eligible non-Hispanic whites voted in 1992, but just 64 percent voted in 2012 (in fact, 2012 was the first time African-Americans voted at a higher rate than whites). Why the decline? It’s likely that neither the professorial President Obama nor the patrician Mitt Romney clicked with many whites who had found a home with Perot or Bill Clinton two decades prior, and millions of these disaffected voters simply stayed home.........

.............The good news for Trump is that nationally, there’s plenty of room for white turnout to improve. If non-Hispanic whites had turned out at the same rate in 2012 that they did in 1992, there would have been 8.8 million additional white voters — far more than Obama’s 5 million-vote margin of victory. But before Democrats panic, here’s the catch, and it’s a doozy for Trump: These “missing” white voters disproportionately live in states that won’t matter in a close presidential race........

.........Bottom line: “Missing” Perot voters exist, and they could be a part of Trump’s blueprint for victory. But in most battleground states, Trump would need to activate far more working-class whites than Perot did to win. That’s not impossible, but our handy Swing-O-Matic suggests Trump would require truly historic levels of support and turnout among working-class whites — in addition to avoiding erosion with other groups — to be within range of winning.

[Jazzhead]

While Trump appeals to less educated whites, he turns off more educated whites.   I'd guess the two groups mostly will cancel each other out.   

I agree that Perot's appeal was similar in many ways to Trump's,  but there's one crucial difference:  While Trump may not personally be bigoted,  he certainly gins up the bigots with his rhetoric in a way Perot never did.   That will,  I think, cause Trump's support to crumble among those whites who want no part of being associated with bigots.     

[DiogenesLamp]

While Trump appeals to less educated whites, he turns off more educated whites.   I'd guess the two groups mostly will cancel each other out.

 


You imply that "educated"  means more rational and sensible,   but that has long ago ceased to be true.   Nowadays more "educated'  means more indoctrinated and predisposed to "virtue signalling."   


The  more "educated"  believed that an inexperienced incompetent was a good idea merely because he was black.   As we see,  that has turned out to be a horribly incorrect decision on the part of the "educated".   


This is not a new phenomena.   It was the "educated"  which embraced eugenics.  It was the "educated"  which embraced communism.  (with it's 100 million+ 20th century body count)  It was the "educated"  which embraced Keynesian economics,  and therefore the fiscal disaster which that has turned out to be. 


The one thing we can amply demonstrate from history is that the "educated"  have almost an uncanny ability to pick the incorrect direction and the incorrect leadership seemingly every time they are able to do so.   The British have a saying;   "Too smart by half."   

For some reason,  the "educated"  never seem to see the flaws in their thinking.   They think they are too smart and too knowledgeable to have left anything out of their decision making process.   It seems that this arrogance always results in a mistake.   


As I am fond of quoting,  Lord Melbourne pointed out in 1830 that:


‘What all the wise men promised has not happened, and what all the d@mned fools said would happen has come to pass.’



Yes,   that seems to be where we are today as well.   

That will,  I think, cause Trump's support to crumble among those whites who want no part of being associated with bigots.   

Because "virtue signalling"  is more important than dealing with the ugly reality we see before us now.   

They will allow their throats to be cut before they tolerate people thinking ill of them.   This is the same malady which is now currently killing Europe.   

[TomSea]

That knock on Trump about educated voters has been brought up and I think some people rebuke it. Maybe if one searches for the info, they can find it. It's just sort of something to say that Trump is attracting the trailer park types.

[DiogenesLamp]

And to further punctuate my point regarding the "educated",   I give you G.K. Chesterton's take:

“Roughly speaking, there are three kinds of people in this world. The first kind of people are People; they are the largest and probably the most valuable class. We owe to this class the chairs we sit down own, the clothes we wear, the houses we live in; and, indeed (when we come to think of it), we probably belong to this class ourselves. The second class may be called for convenience the Poets; they are often a nuisance to their families, but, generally speaking, a blessing to mankind. The third class is that of the Professors or Intellectuals; sometimes described as the thoughtful people; and these are a blight and a desolation both to their families and also to mankind.”

[Wingnut]

You have to remember the majority of Trumps support comes from the simple folk. These are people of the land. The common clay of the new West. You know ... morons.

[HonestJohn]

And to further punctuate my point regarding the "educated",   I give you G.K. Chesterton's take:

Since you have such a hatred of the educated, why are you using a computer?  That took educated people to develop.

Honestly, you sound like a jihadist condemning the Jews... but more than happy to use everything they invented.