https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/general-election-will-prove-daunting-for-trump/2016/05/14/ef865dda-1982-11e6-924d-838753295f9a_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_sundaytake-757am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory By Dan Balz May 14 at 7:56 AM
Every preliminary electoral-map forecast this spring paints a bleak picture for Donald Trump in his effort to win the presidency against Hillary Clinton. The consensus is that there is only a very narrow path to victory, and that will probably shape the opening phase of the general-election campaign.
(One Democratic strategist, who knows as much as anyone about the demographics and voting histories of the battleground states, recently speculated on a not-for-attribution basis about the matchup between Clinton and Trump. His bottom line: There’s a high likelihood that Clinton at least matches the 332 electoral votes President Obama won in 2012. But he could also see a path for Trump, constricted as it may be.)
Among the earlier forecasts, the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato sees a Clinton romp in the making. A year ago, his forecast showed Democrats with an advantage in states adding up to 247 electoral votes, Republicans with an edge in states adding up to 206 and six states totaling 85 votes rated as toss-ups. Today, Sabato sees no states as toss-ups. Instead, he shows Clinton with 347 electoral votes and Trump with just 191.
The Cook Political Report shows a similarly dire map for Trump: 304 electoral votes leaning or solid for Clinton, 190 leaning or solid for Trump and 44 up for grabs. The four states Cook rated as toss-ups include three carried by Obama in 2012 (Iowa, New Hampshire and Ohio) and one carried by Mitt Romney (North Carolina).
The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report offers a more conservative estimate, but one no less daunting for Trump and Republicans: 263 leaning or solid for the Democrats, 206 for the Republicans and the remaining as toss-ups. The toss-ups in this analysis are Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia.
continued
