Author Topic: Trump 41%, Clinton 39%  (Read 1200 times)

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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Trump 41%, Clinton 39%
« on: May 02, 2016, 03:21:30 pm »
Trump 41%, Clinton 39%
Rasmussen; Monday, May 02, 2016

Last week, Rasmussen Reports gave voters the option of staying home on Election Day if Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the big party nominees, and six percent (6%) said that’s what they intend to do for now. Clinton and Trump were tied with 38% support each; 16% said they would vote for some other candidate, and two percent (2%) were undecided.

But Trump edges slightly ahead if the stay-at-home option is removed. Trump also now does twice as well among Democrats as Clinton does among Republicans.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 41% support to Clinton’s 39%. Fifteen percent (15%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This is the first time Trump has led the matchup since last October. Clinton held a 41% to 36% advantage in early March.

Trump now has the support of 73% of Republicans, while 77% of Democrats back Clinton. But Trump picks up 15% of Democrats, while just eight percent (8%) of GOP voters prefer Clinton, given this matchup. Republicans are twice as likely to prefer another candidate.

Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Trump leads 37% to 31%, but 23% like another candidate. Nine percent (9%) are undecided.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on April 27-28, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ninety-one percent (91%) of Democrats now say Clinton is likely to be their party’s nominee. Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Republicans see Trump as the likely GOP nominee. 

Trump leads 48% to 35% among men but trails Clinton by a similar 44% to 34% among women.

Clinton’s narrow 38% to 32% lead among those under 40, traditionally a reliable Democratic group, suggests that younger voters will be a big target in the upcoming campaigning. Twenty-five percent (25%) of these voters like another candidate for now, and five percent (5%) are undecided. Trump has a small advantage among older voters.

Clinton earns 71% of the black vote, 45% support among other minority voters but just 33% of whites. Trump gets only nine percent (9%) of blacks, 33% of other minorities and 48% of white voters.


Read more:  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/trump_41_clinton_39


Offline sinkspur

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Re: Trump 41%, Clinton 39%
« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2016, 03:24:05 pm »


Quote
Several polling firms got notably poor results, on the other hand. For the second consecutive election — the same was true in 2010 — Rasmussen Reports polls had a statistical bias toward Republicans, overestimating Mr. Romney’s performance by about four percentage points, on average. Polls by American Research Group and Mason-Dixon also largely missed the mark. Mason-Dixon might be given a pass since it has a decent track record over the longer term, while American Research Group has long been unreliable.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0
Roy Moore's "spiritual warfare" is driving past a junior high without stopping.

Offline sinkspur

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Re: Trump 41%, Clinton 39%
« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2016, 03:36:03 pm »
Ben Shapiro ‏@benshapiro  15m15 minutes ago

Trump 41%, Hillary 39% includes 15% other option, 5% undecided. Trump needs 63% of whites. He has 48% in this poll.
Roy Moore's "spiritual warfare" is driving past a junior high without stopping.

Offline Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Re: Trump 41%, Clinton 39%
« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2016, 03:41:38 pm »
I'd like to believe this, but Rasmussen also predicted Romney would beat Obama, I believe.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2016, 04:01:16 pm by Weird Tolkienish Figure »

Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Trump 41%, Clinton 39%
« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2016, 03:53:38 pm »
Ben Shapiro ‏@benshapiro  15m15 minutes ago

Trump 41%, Hillary 39% includes 15% other option, 5% undecided. Trump needs 63% of whites. He has 48% in this poll.

Relax, Sink.  This isn't a final poll.  This shows the start of a trend .... and a good one!!! :beer:

Offline sinkspur

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Re: Trump 41%, Clinton 39%
« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2016, 03:56:13 pm »
Relax, Sink.  This isn't a final poll.  This shows the start of a trend .... and a good one!!! :beer:

Given Rasmussen's track record, no it doesn't.  It is a complete and total outlier.
Roy Moore's "spiritual warfare" is driving past a junior high without stopping.

Offline truth_seeker

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Re: Trump 41%, Clinton 39%
« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2016, 04:02:13 pm »
New definitions:

Outlier=Any poll you do not like
"God must love the common man, he made so many of them.�  Abe Lincoln

Offline Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Re: Trump 41%, Clinton 39%
« Reply #7 on: May 02, 2016, 04:05:01 pm »
New definitions:

Outlier=Any poll you do not like

No, this is definitely an outlier, for now. If other polls follow suit, then it's not an outlier.

Offline truth_seeker

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Re: Trump 41%, Clinton 39%
« Reply #8 on: May 02, 2016, 05:41:36 pm »
No, this is definitely an outlier, for now. If other polls follow suit, then it's not an outlier.
GWU/Battleground a few days ago therefore is an outlier also.

Two recent outliers.
"God must love the common man, he made so many of them.�  Abe Lincoln

Offline Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Re: Trump 41%, Clinton 39%
« Reply #9 on: May 02, 2016, 05:52:35 pm »
GWU/Battleground a few days ago therefore is an outlier also.

Two recent outliers.

Might be. Is this the poll that showed Cruz leading by double digits? That's a definite outlier, by definition.

Offline sinkspur

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Re: Trump 41%, Clinton 39%
« Reply #10 on: May 02, 2016, 06:04:07 pm »
GWU/Battleground a few days ago therefore is an outlier also.

Two recent outliers.

With 15% "will choose some other option" when both candidates have 100% name recognition,  Rasmussen's historic weighting toward Republicans, and Hillary taking 63 of the last 65 polls, it will take several other polls with similar results to prove a trend.
Roy Moore's "spiritual warfare" is driving past a junior high without stopping.

Offline sinkspur

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Re: Trump 41%, Clinton 39%
« Reply #11 on: May 02, 2016, 09:13:37 pm »

Just Karl
‏@justkarl

FWIW, note Rasmussen doesn't reach cellphones, and relies on "an online survey tool" to reach cord-cutters.
Roy Moore's "spiritual warfare" is driving past a junior high without stopping.