http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/what-a-contested-convention-would-look-like/article/2590002What a contested convention would look like
By Trevor Potter • 5/1/16 12:02 AM
As we move slowly toward an answer to the question of the year, whether Donald Trump will have enough delegates to obtain the Republican nomination on the first ballot at the Cleveland convention in July, it is important to understand just exactly what a "contested convention" (meaning one where no one arrives as the clear nominee of the party) would mean.
For one thing, we will likely not know precisely whether Trump has the votes on the first ballot until the roll is called. Trump will undoubtedly claim he does. But we will not know whether he is bluffing because of the possibility that he will not arrive in Cleveland with 1,237 delegates who are bound by law and party rules to vote for him.
That he might reach that magic number of bound delegates is not impossible, but he is likely to be close, and to claim that he has enough commitments from unbound delegates to put him over the top — a claim that will be difficult (if not impossible) to verify and will be vigorously disputed by the Cruz and Kasich campaigns.
To understand why, consider the effect of Trump's sweeping win in Pennsylvania this week. Despite getting nealry 57 percent of the vote there, only 17 of the 71 delegates elected in that primary are actually bound to vote for Trump on the first ballot. The other 54 Pennsylvania delegates are free to make up their own minds, though some have indicated that they will give great weight to the wishes of the state's voters.
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