Author Topic: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall  (Read 2082 times)

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Offline Free Vulcan

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Donald Trump supporters and some pundits like to fantasize that the real estate magnate will put blue states like New York, Massachusetts and California in play this fall against Hillary Clinton while also running strong in the industrial Midwest. Trump could win! It's not gonna happen.

Trump, should he lock down the nomination next week by winning Indiana, will go into the fall campaign as the most toxic Republican nominee since Barry Goldwater in 1964.

Just begin with Trump's overwhelmingly negative personal ratings. Nationwide, around 65 percent of Americans have an unfavorable view of Trump. Clinton has her own problems but her unfavorable rating is 10 points better than Trump's. Where it really gets dismal for Trump is among women, 70 percent of whom view him negatively compared with 45 percent who view Clinton negatively. In a hypothetical head to head matchup, Clinton leads Trump by 58 percent to 31 percent among women.


More at:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/29/for-trump-why-goldwater-history-will-repeat-itself-in-the-fall.html
The Republic is lost.

Offline gafr60

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2016, 03:39:50 am »
"Trump, should he lock down the nomination next week by winning Indiana, will go into the fall campaign as the most toxic Republican nominee since Barry Goldwater in 1964."


Last summer, I believed that virtually any Republican running would triumph over either Hillary or Bernie in a landslide.  It was in the bag.  The only failure in my analysis was that I didn't think that Trump had a prayer and would drop out of the race in the early stages.
How things changed.
As far as Goldwater, he was one that I admired in my youth, one of the few true statesman that arose during his era.   At least his conservatism was revealed to the public and helped propel Reagan to the presidency.  At least his loss had significance and brought fruit later on.
I am afraid a loss by Trump will just lead to destruction.



Offline massadvj

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2016, 03:53:45 am »
It is hard to imagine a candidate getting the nomination of the GOP without the support of the GOPe neo-cons or the hard right intellectuals.  But with the help of working class white males Trump will transform the party from a free trade, free market party to a protectionist, populist party.  I predict one of the first things that happens after the convention is that Carly Fiorina will endorse Hillary Clinton.  There go the Republican women.  Game, set, match.

As for Goldwater, he is still remembered as a great thinker and statesman in spite of his 1964 loss.  Trump will always be remembered as an ignorant demagogue, and anyone who gets close to him will be judged an opportunist or fool in history's judgment.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2016, 04:00:48 am by massadvj »

Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2016, 03:54:22 am »
"Trump, should he lock down the nomination next week by winning Indiana, will go into the fall campaign as the most toxic Republican nominee since Barry Goldwater in 1964."
Are you sure about that?   :pondering:


Gallup:  Presidential Election 2016: Key Indicators  (Favorability)

Among Republicans/Republican-leaning independents

Apr 22-28, 2016
Cruz: 41 % Fav.    Trump: 57 % Fav. 

Apr 21-27, 2016
Cruz: 42 % Fav.     Trump: 57 % Fav.

Apr 20-26, 2016
Cruz: 44 % Fav.    Trump: 57 % Fav.


http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/presidential-election-2016-key-indicators.aspx?g_source=ELECTION_2016&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles#pcf-fave


Offline truth_seeker

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2016, 04:04:29 am »
Are you sure about that?   :pondering:


Gallup:  Presidential Election 2016: Key Indicators  (Favorability)

Among Republicans/Republican-leaning independents

Apr 22-28, 2016
Cruz: 41 % Fav.    Trump: 57 % Fav. 

Apr 21-27, 2016
Cruz: 42 % Fav.     Trump: 57 % Fav.

Apr 20-26, 2016
Cruz: 44 % Fav.    Trump: 57 % Fav.


http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/presidential-election-2016-key-indicators.aspx?g_source=ELECTION_2016&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles#pcf-fave

The parties in play here, are Trump, Cruz and the unknown GOPe option. If Trump fails on the 1st ballot, some naively think it will roll over to Cruz, but I think another probable option is goes to an as yet unidentified candidate(s).

I say this, because the GOPe has as much distaste for Cruz, as they have for Trump. I think Rafael is mistaken, that they will fall in to support him.

"God must love the common man, he made so many of them.�  Abe Lincoln

A-Lert

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2016, 04:21:33 am »
Carly Fiorina will endorse Hillary Clinton. 



So Ted's chosen running mate is a traitor? Figures.

Offline Jackson

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2016, 04:34:00 am »
A traitor to Trump is a patriot to the country. Trump must be sent back to the WWE from whence he came.

Online DCPatriot

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #7 on: May 02, 2016, 04:34:54 am »
It is hard to imagine a candidate getting the nomination of the GOP without the support of the GOPe neo-cons or the hard right intellectuals.  But with the help of working class white males Trump will transform the party from a free trade, free market party to a protectionist, populist party.  I predict one of the first things that happens after the convention is that Carly Fiorina will endorse Hillary Clinton.  There go the Republican women.  Game, set, match.

As for Goldwater, he is still remembered as a great thinker and statesman in spite of his 1964 loss.  Trump will always be remembered as an ignorant demagogue, and anyone who gets close to him will be judged an opportunist or fool in history's judgment.

Don't hold back, Victor.  Tell us how you REALLY feel!     :laugh:
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HonestJohn

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #8 on: May 02, 2016, 04:37:49 am »
It is hard to imagine a candidate getting the nomination of the GOP without the support of the GOPe neo-cons or the hard right intellectuals.  But with the help of working class white males Trump will transform the party from a free trade, free market party to a protectionist, populist party.  I predict one of the first things that happens after the convention is that Carly Fiorina will endorse Hillary Clinton.  There go the Republican women.  Game, set, match.

As for Goldwater, he is still remembered as a great thinker and statesman in spite of his 1964 loss.  Trump will always be remembered as an ignorant demagogue, and anyone who gets close to him will be judged an opportunist or fool in history's judgment.

If Trump gets the nomination, he will transform the GOP into an ethnic nationalist party.  In essence, a party that wants a big nanny-state government with great 'freebies'... for whites-only.  The rest of America can pay for it.

HonestJohn

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #9 on: May 02, 2016, 04:39:33 am »
Are you sure about that?   :pondering:


Gallup:  Presidential Election 2016: Key Indicators  (Favorability)

Among Republicans/Republican-leaning independents

Apr 22-28, 2016
Cruz: 41 % Fav.    Trump: 57 % Fav. 

Apr 21-27, 2016
Cruz: 42 % Fav.     Trump: 57 % Fav.

Apr 20-26, 2016
Cruz: 44 % Fav.    Trump: 57 % Fav.


http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/presidential-election-2016-key-indicators.aspx?g_source=ELECTION_2016&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles#pcf-fave

This is not a good counter-argument, as this is only for Republicans/Republican-leaners... who only make up about 30% of the electorate in total.  All you've said is that Trump is looked favorably upon by roughly 20% of the electorate.  Just 20%.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2016, 04:41:17 am by HonestJohn »

A-Lert

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #10 on: May 02, 2016, 04:42:36 am »
A traitor to Trump is a patriot to the country. Trump must be sent back to the WWE from whence he came.

So you are saying Clinton and Carly are patriots to this country?  :silly:

A-Lert

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #11 on: May 02, 2016, 04:44:05 am »
If Trump gets the nomination, he will transform the GOP into an ethnic nationalist party.  In essence, a party that wants a big nanny-state government with great 'freebies'... for whites-only.  The rest of America can pay for it.

Absolute  :bsflag:

A-Lert

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2016, 04:45:22 am »
This is not a good counter-argument, as this is only for Republicans/Republican-leaners... who only make up about 30% of the electorate in total.  All you've said is that Trump is looked favorably upon by roughly 20% of the electorate.  Just 20%.

And Cruz?  :silly:

Online DCPatriot

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2016, 04:51:11 am »
It is hard to imagine a candidate getting the nomination of the GOP without the support of the GOPe neo-cons or the hard right intellectuals.  But with the help of working class white males Trump will transform the party from a free trade, free market party to a protectionist, populist party.  I predict one of the first things that happens after the convention is that Carly Fiorina will endorse Hillary Clinton.  There go the Republican women.  Game, set, match.

As for Goldwater, he is still remembered as a great thinker and statesman in spite of his 1964 loss.  Trump will always be remembered as an ignorant demagogue, and anyone who gets close to him will be judged an opportunist or fool in history's judgment.



LOL!

Victor....tripped over this and thought of this thread!
"It aint what you don't know that kills you.  It's what you know that aint so!" ...Theodore Sturgeon

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Offline Formerly Once-Ler

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2016, 07:00:25 am »
It is hard to imagine a candidate getting the nomination of the GOP without the support of the GOPe neo-cons or the hard right intellectuals.  But with the help of working class white males Trump will transform the party from a free trade, free market party to a protectionist, populist party.  I predict one of the first things that happens after the convention is that Carly Fiorina will endorse Hillary Clinton.  There go the Republican women.  Game, set, match.

As for Goldwater, he is still remembered as a great thinker and statesman in spite of his 1964 loss.  Trump will always be remembered as an ignorant demagogue, and anyone who gets close to him will be judged an opportunist or fool in history's judgment.

As usual...great post!

A-Lert

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #15 on: May 02, 2016, 07:16:06 am »
It is hard to imagine a candidate getting the nomination of the GOP without the support of the GOPe neo-cons or the hard right intellectuals.  But with the help of working class white males Trump will transform the party from a free trade, free market party to a protectionist, populist party.  I predict one of the first things that happens after the convention is that Carly Fiorina will endorse Hillary Clinton.  There go the Republican women.  Game, set, match.

As for Goldwater, he is still remembered as a great thinker and statesman in spite of his 1964 loss.  Trump will always be remembered as an ignorant demagogue, and anyone who gets close to him will be judged an opportunist or fool in history's judgment.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/fundraising/203784-donald-trump-makes-donation-to-ted-cruz

Offline Cowboyway

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #16 on: May 02, 2016, 07:44:43 am »
I predict one of the first things that happens after the convention is that Carly Fiorina will endorse Hillary Clinton.

A) You're assuming that Cruz won't get the nomination.

B) You're implying that all of Fiorina's attacks on Hillary were just for show.

C) If, under any circumstances, Fiorina endorses Hillary, I will get a Donald Trump tattoo.
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Offline elhombrelibre

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #17 on: May 02, 2016, 08:33:38 am »
One of the things we need to remember about Trump is that he is not a real conservative and only started to pretend to be one a couple of years ago; he is a situational one only as a way to become POTUS.  He acts as one when he wants to trick conservatives.  The views and positions are like a new song for him, so he gets most of the words wrong and ideas wrong because he doesn't understand the history or the background for the values and views that real conservatives believe in.  Worse still is how he treats real conservatives.  He's made clear he has contempt for them and always in a very personal way.   Contrast this with Hillary.  She knows that when she finally beats Bernie she will need his supporters.  Trump and the Trump supporters have directed so much venom at conservatives, their publications, their lifelong supporters, and their leaders, and at many of these lifelong voters that it shows his base that Trump does care about conservatives or conservatism.  He sees all of conservatism as an impediment to his ambitions.  His vanity is his guiding force.

He has a mini-movement.  But it's not going to expand.  There are only so many people willing to make this Faustian Pact.  There are only so many opportunist willing to ride the coattails of man eager to destroy the conservative brand to get elected.  He has made enemies with his demeaning statements and his anger directed at anyone who deigned to question his contradictory policies and considerable ignorance.   He has won over those with border concerns but made anti-Latino comments that make the whole group of them collectively guilty of in his overheated rhetoric.  His whole divisive campaign and his childish behavior have created an environment that's thrown the Democrats a lifeline when they should have been unable to appeal to the nation.   The nation is stuck with a choice that may well come down to a criminal or the hubris of a clownish dilettante.  Young voters, Hispanics, blacks, and well educated whites are not going to vote for him.   And principled conservatives are not going to want Trump enough to compromise for a transparent mountebank.   Reality TV, professional wrestling, and crony capitalism have not prepared him to understand how to lead a political party, let alone a nation.  His scorched earth approach has made enemies of potential allies and will lead to a huge number of Republicans being defeated if he is the nominee.   The contrast between Trump and how Reagan dealt with intraparty opposition could not be more clear.  Cruz smiles and debates opponents.  Reagan smiled and stuck to his principles.  Trump lashes out with angry non sequiturs and schoolyard taunts.   Conservatives used to say words mattered.  We said character mattered.  Trump says only he matters.  Contrast that with Goldwater.  His principled approach to the states rights doomed him.  Trump's approach is about whatever pops out his mouth, no matter how mistaken or vulgar.  If the Republican Party nominates Trump, it will be devastating to the party and to conservatism.  Republicans will need to do some real soul searching when this lost opportunity is analyzed.


Offline massadvj

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #19 on: May 02, 2016, 01:25:02 pm »
C) If, under any circumstances, Fiorina endorses Hillary, I will get a Donald Trump tattoo.

OK, you are on record! 

Offline kevindavis007

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #20 on: May 02, 2016, 02:01:18 pm »
As much I admire Barry Goldwater, I didn't care for him when he defended Bill Clinton.
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Offline don-o

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #21 on: May 02, 2016, 03:29:08 pm »
   His whole divisive campaign and his childish behavior have created an environment that's thrown the Democrats a lifeline when they should have been unable to appeal to the nation.   The nation is stuck with a choice that may well come down to a criminal or the hubris of a clownish dilettante. 

Firstly, it is great to see you here.

Secondly, that is a fine analysis of the current situation, as I see it.

It's frustrating to me to watch the Cruz campaign. Perhaps I am overly critical, but though I believe him to be the best choice, I do not find myself inspired. Maybe it's the tone of his voice and his attempt to project firmness and passion. But, he projects a stridency that wears me out. I cannot listen to him for more that a couple of minutes. Since so  much depends the personality, I wonder how much weight Cruz has actually give to that? (I had similar problems with Palin, so maybe it IS just my personal quirks.)

One of the strengths of Reagan was that he always projected that he was in control of himself and that he was speaking to you as an equal. Cruz would have done well to have modeled his rhetorical style like that.

And do NOT get me started on Glenn Beck.

And yes, I am using past tense, though I hope I am premature.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2016, 04:36:33 pm by don-o »

Offline TomSea

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #22 on: May 02, 2016, 03:33:52 pm »
It is hard to imagine a candidate getting the nomination of the GOP without the support of the GOPe neo-cons or the hard right intellectuals.  But with the help of working class white males Trump will transform the party from a free trade, free market party to a protectionist, populist party.  I predict one of the first things that happens after the convention is that Carly Fiorina will endorse Hillary Clinton.  There go the Republican women.  Game, set, match.

As for Goldwater, he is still remembered as a great thinker and statesman in spite of his 1964 loss.  Trump will always be remembered as an ignorant demagogue, and anyone who gets close to him will be judged an opportunist or fool in history's judgment.

Carly going from being veep running mate to endorsing abortion proponent Sanger award winner Hillary Clinton? No way. In fact, even away from that issue, I think Carly has gotten in some decent jabs at Clinton and often says that is what we need to save the country from.

Offline sinkspur

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #23 on: May 02, 2016, 03:49:17 pm »
Trump and the Trump supporters have directed so much venom at conservatives, their publications, their lifelong supporters, and their leaders, and at many of these lifelong voters that it shows his base that Trump does care about conservatives or conservatism.  He sees all of conservatism as an impediment to his ambitions.  His vanity is his guiding force.

He has a mini-movement.  But it's not going to expand.  There are only so many people willing to make this Faustian Pact.  There are only so many opportunist willing to ride the coattails of man eager to destroy the conservative brand to get elected.  He has made enemies with his demeaning statements and his anger directed at anyone who deigned to question his contradictory policies and considerable ignorance. 

Welcome.  Your entire post was on target, but I especially liked this.  George Will's latest column (which I posted) says that the GOP must do what it takes, if he is the nominee, to keep Trump out of the White House.  I heartily concur. 
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Offline MACVSOG68

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Re: For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall
« Reply #24 on: May 02, 2016, 03:50:12 pm »
Carly going from being veep running mate to endorsing abortion proponent Sanger award winner Hillary Clinton? No way. In fact, even away from that issue, I think Carly has gotten in some decent jabs at Clinton and often says that is what we need to save the country from.

Yeah, have to agree with that.  In politics anything is possible, but some things are tremendously improbable.
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