Washington — Tuesday was pretty good for Donald Trump. He swept five states and edged closer to the magic number of 1,237 delegates needed to win the Republican presidential nomination. His winning numbers were impressive, ranging from 54 percent of the GOP primary vote in Maryland to 64 percent in Rhode Island. It sure looks like he’s no longer a plurality candidate winning split fields by less than majority vote.
Trump said Tuesday night he considers himself the “presumptive nominee.” That may be presumptuous – his path to a first-ballot convention win remains narrow. But it’s increasingly difficult to see how the anti-Trump forces pull together to stop The Donald. So far Ted Cruz and John Kasich haven’t formed an effective anti-Trump partnership.
That said, the numbers aren’t all great for the Trump campaign. Contained within exit polls and demographic data are hints that his prospective takeover of the GOP isn’t going smoothly. Trump also said last night that he’s a “uniter.” Here are three data points that indicate he’s something else.
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TURNOUT. Yes, Trump won big on Tuesday. But he did so with a relatively small GOP turnout. In the six northeastern states that voted during the last eight days, the Republicans who bothered to cast ballots averaged only 9.9 percent of the voting-eligible population, according to data cited by FiveThirtyEight. By contrast, in the New Hampshire primary Republican turnout was 27.8 percent of the voting-eligible. In Wisconsin the comparable number was 25.6.
Why the drop? One theory: Lots of anti-Trump Republicans are discouraged and not bothering to go to the polls.
“The #NeverTrump voters might not be voting for Trump, but they might be staying at home,” writes FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver....
More at:
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/Decoder/2016/0427/Three-numbers-from-Tuesday-s-primaries-that-should-worry-Trump
