Poll: Trump could put Arizona in play

[sinkspur]

Poll: Trump could put Arizona in play

By BRIANNA GURCIULLO 04/25/16 05:46 PM EDT

In Arizona, Hillary Clinton would beat Donald Trump in a general election but would lose to Ted Cruz or John Kasich, according to a poll released on Monday.

Clinton bests Trump in a hypothetical November matchup — 43 percent to his 35 percent, with 23 percent uncommitted.

Kasich would come out 12 points in front of Clinton, thanks to the support of older, higher-income voters, according to the survey, which was conducted by the Behavior Research Center of Arizona. And Cruz would beat Clinton by 5 percentage points, 43 percent to her 38 percent, with 19 percent uncommitted.

"Growing dissatisfaction with politics in Washington and in Arizona,” plus an increase in the number of Independent voters in the state, suggests that Arizona may be shifting "from its historic position as a 'safe state' for Republicans into a 'swing state,'" the researchers write.

Bernie Sanders would beat any of the three remaining Republican presidential candidates in a general election, according to the poll, which was conducted before the New York primary.

Noting Sanders' appeal to younger voters, the researchers write: “There is little doubt that if they do turn out, their lopsided vote for Senator Sanders could make a big difference.”

Among women, both Clinton and Sanders would top Trump by almost two to one. “This is perhaps the clearest sign we have seen to date that Trump has deeply alienated women votes regardless of political affiliation,” the researchers write.

Trump would also fare poorly among minority voters, attracting "well under 30% of the Hispanic and African-American vote," they write. The proportion of Hispanics in Arizona has almost doubled since 1980, according to the Pew Research Center.

The poll was based on 564 phone interviews conducted between April 4 and 11 by the Behavior Research Center of Arizona, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-dem-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/arizona-general-election-clinton-trump-kasich-cruz-222421#ixzz46tEqzeoe
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[Mesaclone]

Poll: Trump could put Arizona in play

By BRIANNA GURCIULLO 04/25/16 05:46 PM EDT

In Arizona, Hillary Clinton would beat Donald Trump in a general election but would lose to Ted Cruz or John Kasich, according to a poll released on Monday.

Clinton bests Trump in a hypothetical November matchup — 43 percent to his 35 percent, with 23 percent uncommitted.

Kasich would come out 12 points in front of Clinton, thanks to the support of older, higher-income voters, according to the survey, which was conducted by the Behavior Research Center of Arizona. And Cruz would beat Clinton by 5 percentage points, 43 percent to her 38 percent, with 19 percent uncommitted.

"Growing dissatisfaction with politics in Washington and in Arizona,” plus an increase in the number of Independent voters in the state, suggests that Arizona may be shifting "from its historic position as a 'safe state' for Republicans into a 'swing state,'" the researchers write.

Bernie Sanders would beat any of the three remaining Republican presidential candidates in a general election, according to the poll, which was conducted before the New York primary.

Noting Sanders' appeal to younger voters, the researchers write: “There is little doubt that if they do turn out, their lopsided vote for Senator Sanders could make a big difference.”

Among women, both Clinton and Sanders would top Trump by almost two to one. “This is perhaps the clearest sign we have seen to date that Trump has deeply alienated women votes regardless of political affiliation,” the researchers write.

Trump would also fare poorly among minority voters, attracting "well under 30% of the Hispanic and African-American vote," they write. The proportion of Hispanics in Arizona has almost doubled since 1980, according to the Pew Research Center.

The poll was based on 564 phone interviews conducted between April 4 and 11 by the Behavior Research Center of Arizona, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-dem-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/arizona-general-election-clinton-trump-kasich-cruz-222421#ixzz46tEqzeoe
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I'm an Arizonan....not a chance she wins AZ. All those "uncomitteds", and then some, vote Trump.

[Frank Cannon]

But, but, but....Trump won NY in the Primary so that will make up for him losing AZ in the General.

[sinkspur]

I'm an Arizonan....not a chance she wins AZ. All those "uncomitteds", and then some, vote Trump.

Really?

I'd love to see a Texas poll.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Hillary right on Trump's heels here.  Hell, she's down three to him in friggin' UTAH!!!

[ScottinVA]

Really?

I'd love to see a Texas poll.  I wouldn&'t be surprised to see Hillary right on Trump's heels here.  Hell, she's down three to him in friggin' UTAH!!!

Ditto for Mississippi, where it's a dead heat.  Hillary would roll to a 35-state win over Trump.

[Mesaclone]

Ditto for Mississippi, where it's a dead heat.  Hillary would roll to a 35-state win over Trump.

National horse-race polls BEFORE the conventions, are notoriously untrustworthy. The winds are already starting to shift...just check out the lates GW Battleground that has Trump in a statistical tie nationally with Hillary....and they will keep shifting as Donald locks down the nomination. Hillary would make hamburger out of Cruz, polls aside, painting him as a right wing Evangelistic nutcake. They would destroy him in short order if he ever attained the nomination...would not be pretty.

[truth_seeker]

And I remember when the very most Arizona expert that posted on GOPBR, assured us that McCain would be soundly defeated, by JD Hackworth.

Turns out her local knowledge and sources were far, far off.

Trump on the 2016 GOP primary in AZ with 47% a long ways back.

Clearly this site is filled with desperation, denial, disapproval, etc.

The notion we should just jump over the clear leader, because some say the 3rd place candidate is best matched with democrats is unheard of.

A most productive use on the cranial cavity would be getting in tune with reality, not some fantasy world.

[Mesaclone]

And I remember when the very most Arizona expert that posted on GOPBR, assured us that McCain would be soundly defeated, by JD Hackworth.

Turns out her local knowledge and sources were far, far off.

Trump on the 2016 GOP primary in AZ with 47% a long ways back.

Clearly this site is filled with desperation, denial, disapproval, etc.

The notion we should just jump over the clear leader, because some say the 3rd place candidate is best matched with democrats is unheard of.

A most productive use on the cranial cavity would be getting in tune with reality, not some fantasy world.

Sounds like she was a real nut  . McCain will never be beaten in Arizona...just not gonna happen. He's almost as popular as Sheriff Joe!

[sinkspur]

National horse-race polls BEFORE the conventions, are notoriously untrustworthy. The winds are already starting to shift...just check out the lates GW Battleground that has Trump in a statistical tie nationally with Hillary....and they will keep shifting as Donald locks down the nomination. Hillary would make hamburger out of Cruz, polls aside, painting him as a right wing Evangelistic nutcake. They would destroy him in short order if he ever attained the nomination...would not be pretty.

Hillary has hours and hours of Trump trashing women, Hispanics, Muslims,handicapped people, 7th Day Adventists, Cubans, and other assorted opponents.

She will BURY him in negative ads.

[truth_seeker]

Sounds like she was a real nut  . McCain will never be beaten in Arizona...just not gonna happen. He's almost as popular as Sheriff Joe!

Trust me. If you think anybody now posts 24-7-365 and is full of the idea that they alone, hold all knowledge you haven't seen anything.

This person lived in AZ, assured this site that everybody she knew and talked to hated, hated McCain and he would lose badly.

Turned out he easily defeated the other candidate. There is a lot of the same thing going on now.

[Mesaclone]

Trust me. If you think anybody now posts 24-7-365 and is full of the idea that they alone, hold all knowledge you haven't seen anything.

This person lived in AZ, assured this site that everybody she knew and talked to hated, hated McCain and he would lose badly.

Turned out he easily defeated the other candidate. There is a lot of the same thing going on now.

Good lord, she could be my neighbor. Yikes!

As for Sink, Trump trailed Hillary by 17 in last July's Fox Poll...he now trails her by just 3, which is a statistical dead heat. Trump can't be effectively smeared because he's already seen as a bit of scoundrel and an overly candid cad. They will come after him, but its just not going to be effective. When they go after Cruz for being a right-wing, religious goofball...you know, the "Chosen" one...they will destroy him. He has no defense because...well...that's kinda who he is.

All that said, horse race polls tell you almost nothing at this point. It will be a tight race, and Trump is the best bet to pull it out in the end...because he can reach Reagan Dems and Independents, whereas Cruz absolutely cannot.

[geronl]

Hillary and Trump are...

TWIN-LOSERMAN

[sinkspur]

Good lord, she could be my neighbor. Yikes!

As for Sink, Trump trailed Hillary by 17 in last July's Fox Poll...he now trails her by just 3, which is a statistical dead heat. Trump can't be effectively smeared because he's already seen as a bit of scoundrel and an overly candid cad. They will come after him, but its just not going to be effective. When they go after Cruz for being a right-wing, religious goofball...you know, the "Chosen" one...they will destroy him. He has no defense because...well...that's kinda who he is.

All that said, horse race polls tell you almost nothing at this point. It will be a tight race, and Trum

p is the best bet to pull it out in the end...because he can reach Reagan Dems and Independents, whereas Cruz absolutely cannot.

You're just sucking down that outlier poll, aren't you? 

Trump is ignorant. He can't discuss policy in any depth; hell, most of the time the questions he's asked are the first time he's even thought about the topic. 

I've accepted that Trump is going to be the nominee.

He will be absolutely DESTROYED by the Democrat attack machine. So far, his trash schtick has worked with dopes who believe as he does. 

When he starts in on Hillary, the media will be all over him,  her massive money advantage will have ads running day and night with his orange mug featured in the most unflattering light. 

And I'll be here, wondering how his very few sycophants on this site will defend him.

Your boy is going down, Messy.  He will never be president.

[Right_in_Virginia]

And I remember when the very most Arizona expert that posted on GOPBR, assured us that McCain would be soundly defeated, by JD Hackworth.

Turns out her local knowledge and sources were far, far off.

Trump on the 2016 GOP primary in AZ with 47% a long ways back.

Clearly this site is filled with desperation, denial, disapproval, etc.

The notion we should just jump over the clear leader, because some say the 3rd place candidate is best matched with democrats is unheard of.

A most productive use on the cranial cavity would be getting in tune with reality, not some fantasy world.

    Well said!

[cato potatoe]

This poll is believable.  Arizona's electorate is around 20% hispanic, and they will vote like blacks if Trump is the nominee.  Romney's numbers were boosted by the large mormon community.  Trump and mormons are like oil and water.  Romney also got 71% of retired voters.  Not gonna happen for the vulgarian. 

[truth_seeker]

This poll is believable.  Arizona's electorate is around 20% hispanic, and they will vote like blacks if Trump is the nominee.  Romney's numbers were boosted by the large mormon community.  Trump and mormons are like oil and water.  Romney also got 71% of retired voters.  Not gonna happen for the vulgarian.

Tell us what percent of residents in Arizona are Mormons?

What percent of registered Arizona Republicans are Hispanic?

Do you know that Trump took the AZ GOP primary, with 47% and won easily?

[Mesaclone]

This poll is believable.  Arizona's electorate is around 20% hispanic, and they will vote like blacks if Trump is the nominee.  Romney's numbers were boosted by the large mormon community.  Trump and mormons are like oil and water.  Romney also got 71% of retired voters.  Not gonna happen for the vulgarian.

Most Mormons would die before voting for Hillary Clinton, so by default Trump...as the GOP nominee...will get their vote. FYI, Mormons make up around 6% of the electorate and they vote GOP down the line for the most part. Arizona is a very Libertarian leaning state and that will work well with Trump's ideology.

[cato potatoe]

Mormons are 6% of the population and represented ~7% of voters in 2012.  They gave Romney 80%.  That will be depressed and 50/50 at best with trump.  They hate the guy, gosh darn it.  Hispanics?  Trump's #1 issue is THE YUGE WALL to keep the mexicans out.  Lyin' Ted Cruz is an anchor baby.  Believe it or not, that stuff doesn't go over well with hispanics.  Then you add in the nationwide trump repulsion through all demographics and what you have is Arizona turning bluish purple.

Did you see the part where Cruz was leading and Kasich was killing it?  If the sample were skewed, you wouldn't expect those numbers. 

[AnybodyButaDem]

Hillary and Trump are...

TWIN-LOSERMAN

Meanwhile, in the real world, Trump is beating both of these losers and is only increasing his lead at this point, yet like sore losers, these two morons continue to stick around thinking either of them are going to win in the fall after the stunts they are pulling against the will of GOP voters.

[truth_seeker]

Mormons are 6% of the population and represented ~7% of voters in 2012.  They gave Romney 80%.  That will be depressed and 50/50 at best with trump.  They hate the guy, gosh darn it.  Hispanics?  Trump's #1 issue is THE YUGE WALL to keep the mexicans out.  Lyin' Ted Cruz is an anchor baby.  Believe it or not, that stuff doesn't go over well with hispanics.  Then you add in the nationwide trump repulsion through all demographics and what you have is Arizona turning bluish purple.

Did you see the part where Cruz was leading and Kasich was killing it?  If the sample were skewed, you wouldn't expect those numbers.

I believe strongly with Trump, AZ goes in the win column. I say that as a Californian with relatives in AZ, NV, UT, TX some intermarried with Hispanics.

When Trump drives home that he doesn't drink, and that he loves the Mormons, he will be fine with them over Hillary. Trust me. I have Mormon relatives as well. UT, TX.

In fact I believe if Trump gains the nomination, even Romney and McCain will endorse him over Hillary.

If they don't it is their problem, not Trump's.

[A-Lert]

Mormons are 6% of the population and represented ~7% of voters in 2012.  They gave Romney 80%.  That will be depressed and 50/50 at best with trump.  They hate the guy, gosh darn it.  Hispanics?  Trump's #1 issue is THE YUGE WALL to keep the mexicans out.  Lyin' Ted Cruz is an anchor baby.  Believe it or not, that stuff doesn't go over well with hispanics.  Then you add in the nationwide trump repulsion through all demographics and what you have is Arizona turning bluish purple.

Did you see the part where Cruz was leading and Kasich was killing it?  If the sample were skewed, you wouldn't expect those numbers.

The wall/border security is to keep illegals out. Illegals infiltrate the southern border from countries and ethnic groups from all over the world.

[cato potatoe]

The wall/border security is to keep illegals out. Illegals infiltrate the southern border from countries and ethnic groups from all over the world.

That's the way I hear it explained in official settings.  And you have a perfectly valid point.

In private conversations and especially on the internet, white nationalism tends to creep in.  The hispanics are exposed to this more often than the official line.  Trump is angry and incoherent, so if you want border security, he is the worst salesman imaginable.  I don't think he sympathizes with the fringe elements, but would not be shocked either.

[A-Lert]

That's the way I hear it explained in official settings.  And you have a perfectly valid point. 

In private conversations and especially on the internet, white nationalism tends to creep in.  The hispanics are exposed to this more often than the official line.  Trump is angry and incoherent, so if you want border security, he is the worst salesman imaginable.  I would not be surprised if he sympathizes with the fringe elements.

Your bias is obvious. Trump is no more angry than  many others of us who are sick of illegals and their cost to legal taxpayers.

[Mesaclone]

That's the way I hear it explained in official settings.  And you have a perfectly valid point.

In private conversations and especially on the internet, white nationalism tends to creep in.  The hispanics are exposed to this more often than the official line.  Trump is angry and incoherent, so if you want border security, he is the worst salesman imaginable.  I don't think he sympathizes with the fringe elements, but would not be shocked either.

I know the national statistics, but I also know and work with a good number of Hispanics here in AZ. You have to differentiate, they are not a singular voting block that votes in lockstep as some other minorities tend to do. In AZ in particular, you have a great number of older Hispanic families who've been Americans since prior to the founding of our state (1912). One colleague of mine in particular is a rabid Trump guy, and is family is disgusted by the unabated flow of immigrants pouring uncontrolled across the AZ border.

This is not some anti-Mexican position, and these folks realize that what we tend to get across the border are the criminal element (drug gangs and people evading Mexican law), the desperate, and the entirely unskilled labor. Essentially, for the most part, we are getting the dregs of Mexican society...Mexico loves this, because in effect they are shipping their poverty and crime problems into Texas, Arizona, and California.

There really are two Mexicos, one that is educated and productive...if a bit corrupt...and then you have the ignorant and unskilled masses of border runners. This division is reflected at a micro-level in the border states....older, traditional Hispanic families with strong traditions of hard work, emphasis on education and generational improvement, and pride in being American...and the riff-raff that pour in here, destroying the safety and security of Americans, including Hispanics, in our states by bringing crime and poverty from Mexico..

This is why we need a wall. This is why a lot more Hispanics will support a wall than you might think. And this is why Donald WILL make some progress amongst Hispanics once the rhetoric tightens up a bit. Everyone here along the border, Hispanics included, can see the deveastation that unabated illegal immigration is causing...and everyone wants a real solution. We all know its not as simple as building a wall, Donald Trump included.

A wall is a beginning, and we have a lot of steps that have to take place as that is getting accomplished...part of that is likely to be a residency deal for illegals (no citizenship) who are here and working productively. Its also likely to include a path to citizenship for those who came here as children...via military and/or civil service and demonstrated mastery of English. Those aspects are what will be negotiated at the legislative level. 

[LMAO]

National horse-race polls BEFORE the conventions, are notoriously untrustworthy. The winds are already starting to shift...just check out the lates GW Battleground that has Trump in a statistical tie nationally with Hillary..

The polls are expected to tighten once the two parties have the nomination. I also don't believe that Hillary will carry Arizona in the general.

It's going to come down to a handful of states. Trump wins the 2004 GWB states or Hillary wins the 2008 Obama states