New California Poll: Trump nearly at 50%

[Mesaclone]

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/04/22/trump-leads-in-california-clinton-sanders-in-close-race.html?intcmp=hpbt2

Starting to look like a runaway freight train.

Trump 49
Cruz 22
Kasich 20

Cruz better get on the ball or he's looking at another 3rd place finish in another big delegate state.

[truth_seeker]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_republican_presidential_primary-5322.html

Real Clear Politics

Compilation of various polls for California, as of 4/22/2016

T=44.3
C=29.3
K=17.8

The numbers speak for themselves

[HAPPY2BME]

This is among GOP California voters only, obviously.

I spent several weeks in Napa Valley recently and I could swear the liberals I dared talk politics to would fit right in with progressive republicans.

I couldn't tell the difference.  Peas in a pod in thought and speech.

They all hate Donald Trump.

[Mesaclone]

This is among GOP California voters only, obviously.

I spent several weeks in Napa Valley recently and I could swear the liberals I dared talk politics to would fit right in with progressive republicans.

I couldn't tell the difference.  Peas in a pod in thought and speech.

They all hate Donald Trump.

Strange that they would hate him...so many here claim he is one of them. Hmmmm?

[truth_seeker]

At issue in the posted polls is the June 7th California GOP Primary, nothing else.

[HAPPY2BME]

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article73424782.html

Donald Trump calls California independents urging switch to GOP

Donald Trump makes play for independent voters in California

Robocall goes to about 1 million voters, aide says
California primary is June 7

In this video, find out where Donald Trump stands on immigration reform, combating ISIS, raising the minimum wage and the legality of gay marriage.

Daniel Desrochers McClatchy
BY DAVID SIDERS
dsiders@sacbee.com
Donald Trump on Friday issued a robocall to independent voters in California, urging them to re-register as Republicans in order to vote for Trump in the state’s primary election.

Trump leads his competitors among likely Republican voters statewide. But the call to independents, which a Trump adviser said was going out to about 1 million voters, underscores how significant even a handful of congressional districts – and their delegates – could prove to his campaign.

The state’s June 7 primary is likely to determine whether the New York businessman can amass the 1,237 delegates necessary to secure the nomination.

Republicans in California, unlike Democrats, do not allow independent voters to cast ballots in their primary election.

“California has a closed presidential primary,” Trump says in the call. “In order for your vote to count, you must be registered to vote as a Republican.”

Independent voters make up nearly a quarter of California’s electorate, with more than 4 million voters stating no party preference.

Tim Clark, Trump’s state director, said, “We feel very strongly that these are our people.”

[Mesaclone]

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article73424782.html

Donald Trump calls California independents urging switch to GOP

Donald Trump makes play for independent voters in California

Robocall goes to about 1 million voters, aide says
California primary is June 7

In this video, find out where Donald Trump stands on immigration reform, combating ISIS, raising the minimum wage and the legality of gay marriage.

Daniel Desrochers McClatchy
BY DAVID SIDERS
dsiders@sacbee.com
Donald Trump on Friday issued a robocall to independent voters in California, urging them to re-register as Republicans in order to vote for Trump in the state’s primary election.

Trump leads his competitors among likely Republican voters statewide. But the call to independents, which a Trump adviser said was going out to about 1 million voters, underscores how significant even a handful of congressional districts – and their delegates – could prove to his campaign.

The state’s June 7 primary is likely to determine whether the New York businessman can amass the 1,237 delegates necessary to secure the nomination.

Republicans in California, unlike Democrats, do not allow independent voters to cast ballots in their primary election.

“California has a closed presidential primary,” Trump says in the call. “In order for your vote to count, you must be registered to vote as a Republican.”

Independent voters make up nearly a quarter of California’s electorate, with more than 4 million voters stating no party preference.

Tim Clark, Trump’s state director, said, “We feel very strongly that these are our people.”

That's the kind of on the ground work that has often been lacking in the Trump campaign. Glad to see that's getting fixed.

[HAPPY2BME]

That's the kind of on the ground work that has often been lacking in the Trump campaign. Glad to see that's getting fixed.

=============================

April 22, 2016, 05:17 pm
Ann Coulter: I hate the new Trump

Conservative commentator Ann Coulter, a staunch supporter of Donald Trump, “hates” the new Trump.

Coulter tweeted Friday that she wishes “Trump would go back to retweeting juvenile photos of Heidi Cruz.”

“I hate the new Manafort and Black Trump,” she added.

    I wish Trump would go back to retweeting juvenile photos of Heidi Cruz. I hate the new Manafort & Black Trump.
    — Ann Coulter (@AnnCoulter) April 22, 2016

    We wanted Trump to stress his presidential side, not become a division of Manafort & Black.
    — Ann Coulter (@AnnCoulter) April 22, 2016

ADVERTISEMENT
Trump’s convention manager Paul Manafort on Thursday told members of the Republican National Committee that the GOP presidential front-runner is “evolving.”

“The negatives will come down, the image is going to change,” Manafort said.

Trump hired Manafort weeks ago to oversee the campaign’s delegate efforts. He has since been promoted to convention manager.

Once a regular on the Sunday morning talk shows, Trump has been noticeably absent since Manafort was hired.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/277328-ann-coulter-i-hate-the-new-trump

[truth_seeker]

1206 voters in a 38 million resident state.

I will say again, because the Trump shills here seem to try to work their program that you win by polling -  this poll is WORTHLESS without understanding there are 53 Congressional Districts in California and each district gets 3 huge delegates.

Nice try.   California is the most diverse political state in the Union and this poll means nothing. There is no comparison between California and New York politically.

California is the ULTIMATE ground game state.   Better get going WIZARD Manafort.

So tell me this. How big of a polling sample size is needed in California, for a meaningful result?

Who is comparing New York and California? What difference does "diversity" make in a GOP primary, anyway?

Do you understand polling, statistics, sample size, margin of error, etc.?

Look at my post, of Real Clear Politics, which compiles several recent polls. Is that good enough? Go to their website, and see the individual polls, all with more or less the same result.

[ArneFufkin]

So tell me this. How big of a polling sample size is needed in California, for a meaningful result?

Who is comparing New York and California? What difference does "diversity" make in a GOP primary, anyway?

Do you understand polling, statistics, sample size, margin of error, etc.?

Look at my post, of Real Clear Politics, which compiles several recent polls. Is that good enough? Go to their website, and see the individual polls, all with more or less the same result.

Polls are meaningless unless they are done on a district by district basis.

That's my point.

[ArneFufkin]

That's the kind of on the ground work that has often been lacking in the Trump campaign. Glad to see that's getting fixed.

You equate "Robocalls" with ground work?

[AnybodyButaDem]

The polls are all lies and it doesn't matter anyway because Lyin' Ted and the GOPe will wine and dine delegates to get them to switch against the will of their voters while Kasich sits in the other room whining about how nobody in the GOP will listen to him and his great liberal ideas.

[truth_seeker]

Polls are meaningless unless they are done on a district by district basis.

That's my point.

A single poll might get it wrong. But when five recent polls all get the same answer, they have it right.

They do NOT need to poll on "a district to district basis" unless they are trying to predict individual districts' results.

The Republicans that might have been able to defeat Trump at this stage, dropped out early. Neither Cruz or Kasich are particularly impressive.

[ArneFufkin]

So tell me this. How big of a polling sample size is needed in California, for a meaningful result?

Who is comparing New York and California? What difference does "diversity" make in a GOP primary, anyway?

Do you understand polling, statistics, sample size, margin of error, etc.?

Look at my post, of Real Clear Politics, which compiles several recent polls. Is that good enough? Go to their website, and see the individual polls, all with more or less the same result.

Let me explain point by point.  If I may.

So tell me this. How big of a polling sample size is needed in California, for a meaningful result?

In any California GOP Primary poll the only thing that matters is how the candidates fare in each District.  Period.  There are 10 Statewide delegates in play and 54 District wide delegations (162 total delegates).

Sample size is irrelevant, it's distribution.  Where was the polling done?

Who is comparing New York and California? What difference does "diversity" make in a GOP primary, anyway?

From the newest inept Trump parachutist into this site - Mescalone:  "Cruz better get on the ball or he's looking at another 3rd place finish in another big delegate state."

To which delegate state do you think he was referring?  Pfffft.

And, in a GOP Primary, diversity means Donald Trump is not necessarily attractive in California districts that vote "blue" in general elections.  I'll say it:  Hispanics!    They hate him.   Cruz could grab hard blue districts in Cali he could never get in NY.  There are not many Pubbies there to be sure but he'd beat Trump 32-17 and get three delegates.

Do you understand polling, statistics, sample size, margin of error, etc.?

Yes, I understand that any number that these outfits stuff down our gullet are absolutely worthless without seeing the methodology, crosstabs and all that other detailed falderol.   FNC is like every other place in that they are trying to MAKE NEWS with polling instead of just reporting news.   Part of the reason our Body Politic is in Stage 4 crisis. CNN/FNC producer:  "Look, if we don't have enough news today call Luntz or have one of those people - who are they again - hustle some kind of poll!  We have a show to do!!!!"

Look at my post, of Real Clear Politics, which compiles several recent polls. Is that good enough? Go to their website, and see the individual polls, all with more or less the same result.


No, because again, California awards only 10 out of their 172 delegates to a statewide voting count.  These are statewide polls. 

[truth_seeker]

Granular enough? Nobody is saying Trump takes 162, or every Congressional district. But he should do very well. That is all that he needs to do.

[HAPPY2BME]

Granular enough? Nobody is saying Trump takes 162, or every Congressional district. But he should do very well. That is all that he needs to do.

================================

Clear as a bell.

Thanks.

[ArneFufkin]

Granular enough? Nobody is saying Trump takes 162, or every Congressional district. But he should do very well. That is all that he needs to do.

You got ALL of that out of a 1200 respondent sample?

Thank you for digging into the bowels of this regionally but -  it's not how delegates are apportioned.  It is done district by district and this regional stuff is not informative.

At this point I might add.  I might be convinced about Trump in future polls but this is not of much value tonight.

But again ... thanks for the work involved in grabbing that data.  It's certainly good for Mr. Trump in that view.

[AnybodyButaDem]

You got ALL of that out of a 1200 respondent sample?  LOL

National polls are sometimes based on a smaller sample size.

I thought a super-intelligent anti-Trump poster such as you would know this basic polling fact.  Heck Stage Three clinical trials for new medical drugs often times have a sample size starting at 1000 and people's lives are at stake.

[AnybodyButaDem]

I have to laugh at the guy who asked for a more specific breakdown of the CA vote automatically trying to discredit the poll when given the more specific breakdown.

But hey these anti-Trump guys are here for honest debate, right?   

[ArneFufkin]

I have to laugh at the guy who asked for a more specific breakdown of the CA vote automatically trying to discredit the poll when given the more specific breakdown.

But hey these anti-Trump guys are here for honest debate, right?   

I appreciated his work.

There was no informative analysis to take from it.  A 1200 respondent sample over 54 districts is meaningless.   Sorry

[HAPPY2BME]

I appreciated his work.

There was no informative analysis to take from it.  A 1200 respondent sample over 54 districts is meaningless.   Sorry

====================================

OK.  1,200 samples is not enough.

How many is enough?

[Chosen Daughter]

=============================

April 22, 2016, 05:17 pm
Ann Coulter: I hate the new Trump

Conservative commentator Ann Coulter, a staunch supporter of Donald Trump, “hates” the new Trump.

Coulter tweeted Friday that she wishes “Trump would go back to retweeting juvenile photos of Heidi Cruz.”

“I hate the new Manafort and Black Trump,” she added.

    I wish Trump would go back to retweeting juvenile photos of Heidi Cruz. I hate the new Manafort & Black Trump.
    — Ann Coulter (@AnnCoulter) April 22, 2016

    We wanted Trump to stress his presidential side, not become a division of Manafort & Black.
    — Ann Coulter (@AnnCoulter) April 22, 2016

ADVERTISEMENT
Trump’s convention manager Paul Manafort on Thursday told members of the Republican National Committee that the GOP presidential front-runner is “evolving.”

“The negatives will come down, the image is going to change,” Manafort said.

Trump hired Manafort weeks ago to oversee the campaign’s delegate efforts. He has since been promoted to convention manager.

Once a regular on the Sunday morning talk shows, Trump has been noticeably absent since Manafort was hired.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/277328-ann-coulter-i-hate-the-new-trump

Should I say better late than never?  I used to respect Coulter because I thought she was Conservative.  There is no new Trump.  It is the same Trump he has always been.  Glad that Coulter is finally coming out of her self induced coma.

[ArneFufkin]

====================================

OK.  1,200 samples is not enough.

How many is enough?

Permit me to ask you a question. 

The average of the regional Trump support that was presented in the chart is 42%.   Add it up and divide it at your leisure.

How does he get 49% statewide?  There was only one region (Jerry Brown's haunts) that Trump polled over 50.

This foray stinks, but everything around Trump and his media circus stinks.

[ArneFufkin]

National polls are sometimes based on a smaller sample size.

I thought a super-intelligent anti-Trump poster such as you would know this basic polling fact.  Heck Stage Three clinical trials for new medical drugs often times have a sample size starting at 1000 and people's lives are at stake.

Hey, Mensa Boy, actually LOOK at that regional chart and tell me how Trump has a 49% statewide support.

He's only over 50% with the Arnold/Jerry Brown crowd in Sacramento and everywhere else he's under 49%.

Facts don't matter to the cultists.

[AnybodyButaDem]

====================================

OK.  1,200 samples is not enough.

How many is enough?

He has no idea and it's hilarious.  A sample of 1200 GOP voters in CA is more than enough of a sample size.  Actually it's a very large sample size on a specific group of voters.  That's why polls have +/- margins of error in accordance to the sample size and methodology, anyhow.

I love it when people who question the intelligence of others show their own ignorance by talking about things they clearly don't know about at all.