Surprising Poll: Trump leads Cruz by 6% in Indiana.

[Mesaclone]

http://www.wthr.com/story/31792956/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-trump-clinton-ahead-in-indiana

Its just one poll, of likely voters, so of course its just an indicator. That said, Indiana was supposed to be Cruz rallying point and its looking more like his potential Waterloo.

Trump 37%
Cruz 31%
Kasich 22%

[Fantom]

In most of the contests... trump underferforms his polling and Ted Cruz overperforms.  Ussually it is way more than enough to cover that spread.

[libertybele]

In Indiana there are 3 RNC delegates, 27 district delegates and 27 at-large delegates.  Don't underestimate Cruz.

Cruz 2016.  Reigniting the Promise of America!! 

[Mesaclone]

In most of the contests... trump underferforms his polling and Ted Cruz overperforms.  Ussually it is way more than enough to cover that spread.

Do you have the data to back that up...not just a couple instances, but polling averages across all of the primaries?

[Fantom]

Do you have the data to back that up...not just a couple instances, but polling averages across all of the primaries?

If I were interested enough to spend an hour on a fleeting tread I would do your homework for you.

However, I am posting what I have seen.. and many others in Trumps continued under performance. It is the subject of many articles. And like the sun rising in the east. I see no need to spend that time on this. Something anyone paying attention already knows.

Now you can take my input however you wish. As can everyone else.

But shortfinger is notorious in under-performing. Just ask all those burned by his billion dollar bankruptcies.

[HootOwl]

  Iowa, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Missouri, Idaho I can't remember others.  But I have been thinking the same thing

[Fantom]

Iowa, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Missouri, Idaho I can't remember others.  But I have been thinking the same thing

Kansas.. the list goes on.  In fact, Except for Arizona, NY, Ohio.. I am having a hard time remembering any other contest that Trump is not under-performing polling. And Cruz doing better sometimes outrageously better.  Oklahoma/Kansas/Wisconsin.

Ted is in for a bad week or two here, but that is a known factor of the liberal/republicans voting. Then the worm should turn as voting heads west.

[libertybele]

Kansas.. the list goes on.  In fact, Except for Arizona, NY, Ohio.. I am having a hard time remembering any other contest that Trump is not under-performing polling. And Cruz doing better sometimes outrageously better.  Oklahoma/Kansas/Wisconsin.

Ted is in for a bad week or two here, but that is a known factor of the liberal/republicans voting. Then the worm should turn as voting heads west.

If Trump didn't realize he was in trouble he wouldn't have recently reorganized his campaign.

[geronl]

Kansas.. the list goes on.  In fact, Except for Arizona, NY, Ohio.. I am having a hard time remembering any other contest that Trump is not under-performing polling. And Cruz doing better sometimes outrageously better.  Oklahoma/Kansas/Wisconsin.

Ted is in for a bad week or two here, but that is a known factor of the liberal/republicans voting. Then the worm should turn as voting heads west.

Yes, but having to depend on Kalipornia does not make me feel better

[Fantom]

Yes, but having to depend on Kalipornia does not make me feel better

There is that.

However Hispanics hate Trump...... and by that time Shortfingers victories in the liberal NE will be forgotten by a wave of Cruz victories headed west.

Interesting times... interesting times.

Surfs Up... The Cruz wave..... hangin' ten on trump in LA

[Mesaclone]

Kansas.. the list goes on.  In fact, Except for Arizona, NY, Ohio.. I am having a hard time remembering any other contest that Trump is not under-performing polling. And Cruz doing better sometimes outrageously better.  Oklahoma/Kansas/Wisconsin.

Ted is in for a bad week or two here, but that is a known factor of the liberal/republicans voting. Then the worm should turn as voting heads west.

Arizona, Ohio, New York, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Illinois, Kentucky, Nevada, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Tennessee. All states where Trump outperformed the RCP average.

I love the people that make proclamations like "Cruz outperforms the polls" but then try to play it off as if their "not doing your homework for you" when asked to provide supporting data. They do this, because they HAVE no supporting data, just their own anecdotal impressions and some vague notion based on partisan articles they may have skimmed. Well, I did some research FOR YOU...and it shows a host of states in which Trump has done better than his RCP polling average in the actual voting. Enjoy the new information, next time perhaps you should get your own data before making silly assertions.

[Mesaclone]

If Trump didn't realize he was in trouble he wouldn't have recently reorganized his campaign.

His reorganization is aimed at two things.

1) Stopping the unethical effort to steal delegates voters elected to support Trump.
2) For the upcoming general election in which he will be the GOP's nominee.

[Fantom]

Arizona, Ohio, New York, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Illinois, Kentucky, Nevada, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Tennessee. All states where Trump outperformed the RCP average.

I love the people that make proclamations like "Cruz outperforms the polls" but then try to play it off as if their "not doing your homework for you" when asked to provide supporting data. They do this, because they HAVE no supporting data, just their own anecdotal impressions and some vague notion based on partisan articles they may have skimmed. Well, I did some research FOR YOU...and it shows a host of states in which Trump has done better than his RCP polling average in the actual voting. Enjoy the new information, next time perhaps you should get your own data before making silly assertions.

12 out of 32..  I think you kinda made my point.

I also notice you spent all this time and did not include any link to your data.

Oh well.

[Mesaclone]

12 out of 32..  I think you kinda made my point.

I also notice you spent all this time and did not include any link to your data.

Oh well.

What was it you told me...do your own homework?

FYI, I stated it came from the RCP polling data site...that's RealClearPolitics if you're not familiar. And FYI, that's the states I took the time to look up, there is likely a few more. Further, there's a number of states where the "underperformance" was negligible..a couple points at most. As importantly, it shows no trend in which Cruz outperforms polling at a rate dissimilar from Trump...or Kasich for that matter. The polls are estimates of voter sentiment, a sentiment that is always a moving target...so they are going to have cases in which all of the candidates under and over perform. But there is CLEARLY no tendency for any of them to either "overperform" or "underperform" more than their rivals.

[A-Lert]

Trump's momentum is building. I fully expect he'll have the nomination wrapped up prior to the convention. That's why Gov. Walker stated he will support Trump if he is the nominee.

[Fantom]

Here is the data set Mesaclone is using. Probably there is maybe a reason.. maybe a big buetiful reason.. maybe yuge why he did not link it maybe.

ANbyways. Check it out yourselves... then decide.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_republican_nomination_map.html

[Mesaclone]

Here is the data set Mesaclone is using. Probably there is maybe a reason.. maybe a big buetiful reason.. maybe yuge why he did not link it maybe.

ANbyways. Check it out yourselves... then decide.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_republican_nomination_map.html

Again, I told you it was RCP data and I want people to go check it out. Its a great source for data. You were to lazy to do the work yourself so I did it for you...at least some of it.

[Fantom]

Not lazy, just not that interested in spending the time ona known thing. I have RCP bookmarked, gave it a look and did not find this data set. I linked it because I think anyone actually looking at it will come to the same conclusion...

Ted overperforms.. sometimes by a massive amount in places like Main, Kansas, Oklahoma.. and more. Trump...not so much. I will say he is not underperforming as bad as I thought ... but he does. Especially when taken out of two things.. The N.E. and his initial southern states.  While his shtick was still new.

And the data set lacks a uniformative polling.. but is likely as good as we can get.

[Mesaclone]

Not lazy, just not that interested in spending the time ona known thing. I have RCP bookmarked, gave it a look and did not find this data set. I linked it because I think anyone actually looking at it will come to the same conclusion...

Ted overperforms.. sometimes by a massive amount in places like Main, Kansas, Oklahoma.. and more. Trump...not so much. I will say he is not underperforming as bad as I thought ... but he does. Especially when taken out of two things.. The N.E. and his initial southern states.  While his shtick was still new.

And the data set lacks a uniformative polling.. but is likely as good as we can get.

Well, I'm going to disagree with your conclusion that Cruz overperforms at a rate greater than the other candidates. I have not looked deeply enough to see if this MAY be the case in certain types of states...but overall, the data just don't support such a conclusion. RCP's aggregate polling measure is a blunt tool, as you say, but it is better than anything else available. I suppose Indiana will be a very good test of both our views.