http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1029/Dcor_March%20National_Memo_4.1.2016_FOR%20RELEASE.pdfEdging toward an earthquakeReport on the WVWV March National Survey
Democracy Corps’ new poll on behalf of WVWVAF shows the country edging toward an
earthquake in November.1 Hillary Clinton already holds a 13-point margin against Donald
Trump and a 6-point lead over Ted Cruz, just a point short of Obama’s margin in 2008. But
seven new findings in this survey suggest something even more disruptive electorally.
1. The GOP brand has reached a new historic low, putting the party at risk in swing
segments of the electorate.
2. The GOP civil war is producing an eye-opening numbers of Republicans ready to punish
down-ballot candidates for not making the right choice with respect to how to run in
relation to the front-runner. Moderate Republicans are already peeling off.
3. The disengagement pall has been lifted. Our focus groups with white unmarried women,
millennials and African Americans showed a new consciousness about the stakes in
November. In this poll, the percentage of Democrats giving the highest level of
engagement has increased 10 points. The biggest increase in engagement came with
college-educated women, putting them on par with Republicans and seniors.
4. The Trump white working-class strategy is faltering because every white working-class
man abandoning the Democratic candidate is being erased by Republican losses with the
white working-class women. As you will see, it is statistically impossible for Trump to
turn out enough angry white working class men to surpass Clinton.
5. The Rising American Electorate (RAE) is producing high Democratic margins, with
unmarried women producing the highest Democratic vote – and widest marriage gap –
we have measured.
6. After years of stagnating Democratic congressional performance, the Democrats have
opened a 6-point lead in the named congressional vote. That is not enough to produce
Democratic control, but this trend corresponds to when Democrats began to show life in
2006 and 2008 when they picked up seats. If the Democrats simply reproduced Clinton’s
margin with the RAE, the Democratic congressional vote would be at a much higher
point. That creates obvious targets to cause an earthquake.
7. The Democratic “Level the Playing Field” message dominates the Trump nationalist
economic message, particularly if it incorporates reforming campaigns – which appeals to
progressive base voters – and reforming government – which appeals to swing voters.
This bold and populist economic message increases the vote, turnout, and support for
congressional Democrats. It is much stronger than Clinton’s current “Ladders of
Opportunity” message, which limits her vote in the primary and general. The success of
the “Level the Playing Field” message also suggests a united Democratic Party can make
further gains.
(More at Link)
