Wake up, Cruz and Kasich-the GOP convention will never nominate you

[Right_in_Virginia]

Wake up, Cruz and Kasich — the GOP convention will never nominate you
The New York Post; By John Podhoretz; March 23, 2016

Look, fellas: If Trump doesn’t get enough delegates to win, why would a GOP let entirely loose from primary and caucus results and able to choose anyone as its nominee turn to two candidates who received even fewer delegates than Trump did?

Would this panicked GOP look at Potential Nominee Cruz and foresee a shift in its fortunes? Why would it? Cruz has yet to demonstrate he has a national constituency. Alas for him, the movement he wanted to lead — conservative white people who, according to a delusional theory unsupported by evidence, didn’t turn up to vote for Mitt Romney in 2012 by the millions and cost the GOP the election — has a candidate: His name is Trump.

Does Kasich have a following? Yes, he does, of people who still cry when they listen to “Eleanor Rigby” and its invocation of “all the lonely people” and who want a hug because their Aunt Minnie has the shingles.

Why would the GOP think its chances of prevailing in November would be notably enhanced by turning to either of these guys rather than to, say, Paul Ryan (who at least was the vice presidential nominee on a ticket that got 61 million votes) or even Mitt Romney (who was at the top of the ticket that got 61 million votes)?

The logic is clear. Cruz’s political rise in Washington came when he won by losing. That is to say, he got himself famous by opposing his own party, forcing a government shutdown, not getting what he wanted and claiming he and his followers had been screwed by Establishment Republicans. It worked for him.

It’s not going to work for him now. You can’t win the GOP nomination by losing.


Read more at:  http://nypost.com/2016/03/23/wake-up-cruz-and-kasich-the-gop-convention-will-never-nominate-you/   

[Bill Cipher]

Very simple, because Trump only has about 37% of the popular vote in the primaries - the winner take all states skew the results and make it look like Trump has more popular support than he does - and it is getting more and more unlikely that the remaining 67% will go for Trump.  If we assume each delegate will follow the wishes of the particular set of constituents they are supposed to represent, it is reasonable to conclude that Trump will not get enough delegates in a brokered convention to hit 50%; therefore necessarily someone else will.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

[libertybele]

Wake up, Cruz and Kasich — the GOP convention will never nominate you
The New York Post; By John Podhoretz; March 23, 2016

IMHO idiotic post by NY Post -- Cruz was nominated to the Senate because of his conservatism -- he is winning delegates because of his conservatism.  Secondly, we had 16 people running; delegates got split.  We have 3 candidates left, with two holding the majority of delegates.  They have spent months campaigning -- one of them deserves to be president.

[Free Vulcan]

Right now the non-Trump candidates combined have more delegates than Trump. Cruz looks like he can win Wisconsin. After that is a bunch of NE states that are a fit for Kasich.

A couple of more WTA pickoffs and Trump won't get the nomination, after promising this whole thing would be an easy sinch. Now he's going to tell us if he doesn't get it, he'll get it because of how much of a deal maker he is.

Guess we'll find out if the outcome can match the rhetoric.

[A-Lert]

Very simple, because Trump only has about 37% of the popular vote in the primaries - the winner take all states skew the results and make it look like Trump has more popular support than he does - and it is getting more and more unlikely that the remaining 67% will go for Trump.  If we assume each delegate will follow the wishes of the particular set of constituents they are supposed to represent, it is reasonable to conclude that Trump will not get enough delegates in a brokered convention to hit 50%; therefore necessarily someone else will.

What percent of the popular vote does Cruz have? Or Kasich, "the Governor of Indiana"?

[Jazzhead]

Stupid column by Podhoretz - it's necessary for Cruz and Kasich to keep fighting to deny Trump the nomination on the first ballot.  I don't disagree that, if that happens, the delegates could eventually compromise on someone not now in the race (e.g., Ryan or Walker or Romney),  but I'd say its still far more likely to be Cruz or Kasich, who've fought the good fight while others have quit or stayed on the sidelines.   

[Free Vulcan]

What percent of the popular vote does Cruz have? Or Kasich, "the Governor of Indiana"?

Better question - is the nomination based on popular vote or delegates?

Even better question - what is the total non-Trump candidate delegate total v. Trump?

[A-Lert]

Better question - is the nomination based on popular vote or delegates?

Even better question - what is the total non-Trump candidate delegate total v. Trump?

My question was directed at the popular vote mentioned by Cipher.

To you I pose this question in response. Which Republican candidate has the most delegates?

[Right_in_Virginia]

What percent of the popular vote does Cruz have? Or Kasich, "the Governor of Indiana"?

Way less than Donald Trump.   

[jmyrlefuller]

So what? They keep their name in the VP conversation anyway, and besides, Cruz can always go back to the Senate (virtually assured of re-election), and Kasich to his governorship, neither the worse for wear. What harm do they have in continuing to run, especially if Trump continues to face as much (well-deserved) resistance as he has?

[A-Lert]

Way less than Donald Trump.   

Me thinks the anti-Trumpers are getting more concerned with each passing day and posted poll.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Oh lord. THe one choice I'd hate more than Donald Trump.

[Frank Cannon]

Thanks for playing John but no one wants Romney or Ryan. Try out some other GOPe talking points.

[truth_seeker]

Stupid column by Podhoretz - it's necessary for Cruz and Kasich to keep fighting to deny Trump the nomination on the first ballot.  I don't disagree that, if that happens, the delegates could eventually compromise on someone not now in the race (e.g., Ryan or Walker or Romney),  but I'd say its still far more likely to be Cruz or Kasich, who've fought the good fight while others have quit or stayed on the sidelines.   

And for your dream to come true, Sen. Rafael Cruz R-Alb. will call up John Kasich and say "John, I am releasing my delegates, and directing them to support you."

Probability approaches zero.

[Free Vulcan]

My question was directed at the popular vote mentioned by Cipher.

To you I pose this question in response. Which Republican candidate has the most delegates?

And how many does Trump need to get the nomination?

And how many are left to get?

And what percentage does that entail?

And where is he at in the polls to know if he'll get them?

Math is not your friend here.

[A-Lert]

And how many does Trump need to get the nomination?

And how many are left to get?

And what percentage does that entail?

And where is he at in the polls to know if he'll get them?

Math is not your friend here.

Nor is comprehension yours. You failed to answer the question.

[Free Vulcan]

Nor is comprehension yours. You failed to answer the question.

Your question is irrelevant, and obtuse.

And you failed the math section of the test.

[A-Lert]

Your question is irrelevant, and obtuse.

And you failed the math section of the test.

You fail.

[Chosen Daughter]

IMHO idiotic post by NY Post -- Cruz was nominated to the Senate because of his conservatism -- he is winning delegates because of his conservatism.  Secondly, we had 16 people running; delegates got split.  We have 3 candidates left, with two holding the majority of delegates.  They have spent months campaigning -- one of them deserves to be president.

libertybele is right again.

Trump is drawing support from liberals and people who haven't voted all of their lives.  Many probably have no idea about the candidates and too lazy to find out.  That's the kind of person Trump himself is.  He never even registered to vote until he was over 50.  Then he has changed his party five times.

If Kasich got out Cruz would smoke Trump the rest of the way.  Cruz was only held back by the number of candidates competing for the Republican vote. 

[Free Vulcan]

You fail.

And you lose.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

And you lose.

Sadly, we all lose, when conservatives see Trump as a solution.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Funny thing about Romney, his unfavorable numbers aren't hugely better than Donald's from what I saw last time. Which explains his loss last time.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Funny thing about Romney, his unfavorable numbers aren't hugely better than Donald's from what I saw last time. Which explains his loss last time.

Hey!  I'm half joking when I post the Romney on a horse picture.  I don't expect anyone to come galloping to save the day.  Romney was a terrible nominee if we expect to lure moderate voters to pull the GOP lever.

[NavyCanDo]

If Kasich got out Cruz would smoke Trump the rest of the way. 

That is quite possible, if Kasich voters flocked to Cruze, but I'm not confident that they would. The logic backing him staying in is, it's very likely that Kasich could take away some NE states, and maybe even California from Trump.