Trump: Brokered convention not happening

[mystery-ak]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/270190-trump-brokered-convention-not-happening

February 21, 2016, 09:28 am
Trump: Brokered convention not happening

By Bradford Richardson

Republican primary front-runner Donald Trump on Sunday said he doesn’t foresee a brokered Republican convention this summer.

“I don’t think we’re going to have a ... brokered convention,” Trump said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “I think it’s unlikely. I think I’m doing better than that, and so far, you know, I’m really on my way.”

Trump pointed to his double-digit wins in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries.

“So I have a second and I have two firsts, and New Hampshire was a blowout and this one was a blowout,” he said. “And, you know, I don’t think – I don’t see where there’s a [brokered] convention.”

The billionaire businessman also said the political class is beginning to see the writing on the wall.

“I think most of the smart people are saying there’s not going to be a [brokered[ convention,” he said. “Interestingly, the ones who say there’s going to be a [brokered] convention – usually they’re the pundits that have been wrong forever, the ones who have been wrong about me.”

[HAPPY2BME]

What is that 'giant sucking sound to the South?'

[andy58-in-nh]

I guess 33% is now considered a "blowout". Who knew?

[Free Vulcan]

Sorry Donald, but the numbers don't support you. If Carson and Kasich got out, Trump, Cruz, and Rubio would all be running between 30 and 40%. None would have enough for the nomination. The only way that could happen is if they all awarded delegates like SC, which they don't.

[andy58-in-nh]

For historical reference, the last truly brokered convention took place in 1952, when Adlai Stevenson entered the convention without a majority of delegates. Stevenson was in fact was behind Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver, who failed on the first ballot, having angered party officials including the incumbent President Truman during his televised hearings into organized crime, which revealed (ahem) "connections" between organized crime and urban Democratic political organizations. Yes, some things never change.  Stevenson went on to be nominated by the Democrat convention on the third ballot.

The last winning U.S. presidential nominee produced by a brokered convention was FDR, in 1932.

The only brokered Republican convention was in 1948, when NY Governor Thomas Dewey eked out a victory over Senator Robert Taft of Ohio and former Minnesota Governor Harold Stassen. The next closest the GOP came was in 1976, when Ronald Reagan's insurgent campaign nearly upset President Gerald Ford, who had been badly weakened in the aftermath of Watergate and by his pardon of Richard Nixon. 

[NavyCanDo]

Sorry Donald, but the numbers don't support you. If Carson and Kasich got out, Trump, Cruz, and Rubio would all be running between 30 and 40%. None would have enough for the nomination. The only way that could happen is if they all awarded delegates like SC, which they don't.

 Placing hopes in that scenario, but Kasich I think will stay in until Ohio before making any decision, and Carson is just enjoying the ride, for what reason I don't know.  Book sales, cabinet post promise?

[Free Vulcan]

Placing hopes in that scenario, but Kasich I think will stay in until Ohio before making any decision, and Carson is just enjoying the ride, for what reason I don't know.  Book sales, cabinet post promise?

Maybe, but mostly I think it's ego driven and in large part spiteful.

[ABX]

Placing hopes in that scenario, but Kasich I think will stay in until Ohio before making any decision, and Carson is just enjoying the ride, for what reason I don't know.  Book sales, cabinet post promise?

Carson is actually raising massive funds, on the par with Cruz and Rubio. Especially as he isn't spending a lot, he can stay in a while just for that. I'm not sure to what end.

[Longiron]

I guess 33% is now considered a "blowout". Who knew?

But 66 2/3 % is . He took 2 out of 3 Primary states and all 50 delegates @ SC. Chew on that for a while

[MBB1984]

I guess 33% is now considered a "blowout". Who knew?

Not a blowout on percentages or even victory margin, but certainly a blowout in terms of delegates.  Trump won every one.

I don't see a brokered convention, either.  If it gets into that mire, Trump will surely go third party and launch a write in campaign if his name cannot be on the ballot.

[andy58-in-nh]

But 66 2/3 % is . He took 2 out of 3 Primary states and all 50 delegates @ SC. Chew on that for a while

Well, you might consider chewing on the fact that those candidates who drop out will see their former supporters gravitate to someone other than Trump because, as they continue to inform pollsters everywhere, they simply will not vote for him. Trump's top end among Republicans is about 43%, and that won't get him elected, unless of course he suddenly decides to become someone other than who he has been. Watch: the fun is just beginning.

[flowers]

For historical reference, the last truly brokered convention took place in 1952, when Adlai Stevenson entered the convention without a majority of delegates. Stevenson was in fact was behind Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver, who failed on the first ballot, having angered party officials including the incumbent President Truman during his televised hearings into organized crime, which revealed (ahem) "connections" between organized crime and urban Democratic political organizations. Yes, some things never change.  Stevenson went on to be nominated by the Democrat convention on the third ballot.

The last winning U.S. presidential nominee produced by a brokered convention was FDR, in 1932.

The only brokered Republican convention was in 1948, when NY Governor Thomas Dewey eked out a victory over Senator Robert Taft of Ohio and former Minnesota Governor Harold Stassen. The next closest the GOP came was in 1976, when Ronald Reagan's insurgent campaign nearly upset President Gerald Ford, who had been badly weakened in the aftermath of Watergate and by his pardon of Richard Nixon.

Thank you for posting that.

[Free Vulcan]

Here's the reality - 1236 needed to win, Trump currently has 67, Cruz 11, Rubio 10, and about 20 others among the other candidates.

There are 1351 bound delegates awarded proportionally with various thresholds of no more than 20%.

Total winner-take-all states are 832 bound delegates. Some of those states go statewide, some by congressional district, some require a threshold of 50% to take all the delegates, otherwise they are by congressional district.

The rest, 287 are unbound.

Which means Trump will have to take all the winner-take-all states, and average 22% of the vote of all the proportional contests, and grab the same percentage of unbound delegates just to take the nomination.

Which basically means he has to almost completely dominate everything from here. One major stumble will mean a brokered convention. Doable, but the bar is high.

Edit: this assumes a 3 candidate race all the way to convention. It changes dramatically if it goes to two candidates.

[andy58-in-nh]

Thank you for posting that.

You are most welcome.

I was not around back in '48, but I remember 1976 very well, as it was the first national election in which I was eligible to cast a ballot. I watched on TV, and have never forgotten the spectacle that night in Kansas City. 

I was wearing a cowboy hat.