Will Ted Cruz surprise in New Hampshire?

[mystery-ak]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/ted-cruz-new-hampshire-primary-218921

 Will Ted Cruz surprise in New Hampshire?

The primary is the first indication of whether he can expand his base beyond evangelicals.

By Katie Glueck

02/08/16 04:59 PM EST

KEENE, N.H. — No one expects Ted Cruz to win Tuesday's primary here. But he's not writing off the state either — far from it — and some of the Texan's allies say he has a real shot at showing he's more than just the candidate of the evangelical right.

“You’re going to see the elements of his success, the components of his success here being different than in Iowa,” said former New Hampshire statehouse Speaker Bill O’Brien, Cruz’s New Hampshire co-chair. “You’re going to see a lot more liberty Republicans be more of a base of his support.”

Cruz has long said that he'll emerge as the conservative consensus candidate if he can bring together Christian conservative, libertarian and tea party activists — as well as, he often says on the trail, Reagan Democrats. With its relatively secular electorate and preponderance of independent voters, he New Hampshire primary will be an early indication whether Cruz can broaden his appeal.

This is no Iowa, the state Cruz won last Monday: Barely more than a fifth of Republican primary voters identified as evangelical or born-again Christians, according to 2012 exit polls — in contrast to nearly two-thirds in Iowa last week.




Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/ted-cruz-new-hampshire-primary-218921#ixzz3zdPjjGB9

[ABX]

Unless he has a very strong ground game, I just don't see it happening. The political demographics in New Hampshire are stacked against him. Simply put, it is a liberal state so the more liberal or pop culture oriented candidate (ie Trump) will most likely do better.

I could be wrong, there may be surprises, I just don't see the path that goes down.

[Right_in_Virginia]

This is no Iowa, the state Cruz won last Monday: Barely more than a fifth of Republican primary voters identified as evangelical or born-again Christians, according to 2012 exit polls — in contrast to nearly two-thirds in Iowa last week.

New Hampshire also isn't a caucus state.   

[NavyCanDo]

Unless he has a very strong ground game, I just don't see it happening. The political demographics in New Hampshire are stacked against him. Simply put, it is a liberal state so the more liberal or pop culture oriented candidate (ie Trump) will most likely do better.

I've read all those demographic numbers about NH, and it boils down to being not very Evangelical, and not conservative by any stretch of the imagination. So what does it say about Trump being so far ahead in the polls there?   Could it be they see him as being the most like them?

[Free Vulcan]

The best part for Cruz is that expectations are indeed low. If he can place even a close third, he's good to roll for SC. If he does better, it will be far more important than Trump winning it.

Rubio is the one on the high wire. He has to be a respectable second, or he's in trouble.

[GAJohnnie]

Prediction:

Liberal Kaisch finishes 2nd or 3rd and become the new darling of the GOPe Media machine at Fox News.

[aligncare]

In Iowa, political demographics were in his favor, so Ted Cruz's win there was no big deal.

Just as a New Hampshire win for Trump (if predictions are correct) will be no big deal.

The problem for Ted Cruz is he won't find too many states similarly situated as Iowa, whereas Trump will find many, many friendly states ahead ....

[EdinVA]

DIXVILLE, N.H. -- Bernie Sanders and John Kasich picked up the most votes as the first ballots of the first-in-the-nation primary were cast early Tuesday.Sanders won over all four Democratic voters in the tiny town of Dixville, while Kasich sneaked past Donald Trump, 3-2, among Republicans.




http://www.cbsnews.com/news/campaign-2016-voting-begins-in-new-hampshire-primary/

Don't know if this means anything but thought it was interesting.

[HonestJohn]

Unless he has a very strong ground game, I just don't see it happening. The political demographics in New Hampshire are stacked against him. Simply put, it is a liberal state so the more liberal or pop culture oriented candidate (ie Trump) will most likely do better.

I could be wrong, there may be surprises, I just don't see the path that goes down.

Also, much of the antics used to attract evangelicals tend to be offputting to those that aren't.  And the further away from an Evangelical one is, the more offputting the tactics become.

New Hampshire and their primary voters aren't that close to Evangelical thought, so I think that Cruz's antics in Iowa may hurt him now.