Iowa Caucus Final Poll: Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marcuo Rubio Tossup (Emerson College)

[Free Vulcan]

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/430581/iowa-caucus-final-poll-donald-trump-ted-cruz-marcuo-rubio-tossup

This news is only hours away from complete irrelevance, but the latest Iowa poll — taken entirely after the last GOP debate — shows that the race is now a three-way tossup between Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio. The Emerson College Polling Society has Trump at 27, Cruz at 26, and Rubio at 22.

The poll found that Trump’s decision to skip the debate hurt him: The poll found the decision by front runner Donald Trump to skip the last Republican debate had a negative impact on his support: – 39% of GOP caucus voters said they were less likely to vote for Trump as a result of the boycott, while 14% viewed his absence as enhancing the likelihood they would vote for Trump. Fifty-two percent (52%) judged Trump’s boycott as unimportant in impacting their vote. “Since our January 21 poll, Trump’s favorability has decreased by 10 points,” said ECPS data analyst Matt Couture, and his decision to boycott the debate seems to be a factor in this decrease”.

The Emerson poll isn’t the only survey showing a three-way race. Opinion Savvy released its own post-debate poll showing Trump’s support plummeting all the way down to 20 percent, with Cruz and Rubio deadlocked at 19.

The Rubio surge theory had taken a hit after the vaunted Des Moines Register poll put him well behind Cruz and Trump, but the two post-debate polls indicate the surge just might be real. We’ll find out soon enough.

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I'm predicting a very close 1-2-3 for Cruz-Trump-Rubio in that order, with no more than a couple of points between each. Not unsimilar to what happened with Santorum-Romney-Paul in '12.

[GAJohnnie]

Don't be surprised if Rubio finishes 1st, or a strong 2nd, in Iowa.

[Free Vulcan]

Don't be surprised if Rubio finishes 1st, or a strong 2nd, in Iowa.

I would consider it a long shot, but not impossible. I think things are more in a state of flux than what many 'experts' will admit. At least the snowstorm won't have any effect on the results.

[Jazzhead]

Don't be surprised if Rubio finishes 1st, or a strong 2nd, in Iowa.

Is that because you think Trump may have blown it by skipping the debate? 

I agree with FV that a Rubio victory in Iowa would be a longshot,  but it would be consistent with the theory that Cruz and Trump are, at this point, cannibalizing each other.

[Free Vulcan]

Is that because you think Trump may have blown it by skipping the debate? 

I agree with FV that a Rubio victory in Iowa would be a longshot,  but it would be consistent with the theory that Cruz and Trump are, at this point, cannibalizing each other.

According to the poll, skipping the debate hurt Trump with Iowans.

It looks like some of that might have shifted to Rubio, but I also expect that with the rest of the field now below 5% that much of the GOPe support is now with him too, and Carson's has went to Cruz and maybe some as well to the other two. I'm not sure if it's cannabilization as much as coalescing, but it there could be some of that.

[GAJohnnie]

Here is why I suspect Rubio will do better then expected.

To start with the trend is Rubio's friend. All the moment in the latest polling is in his favor.

According to polling a plurality of Iowa voters are either undecided or soft in their support for any candidate.

Religious voters play a significant role in Iowa politics.They faithfully show up on Caucus night.

Religious voters have demonstrated in the past a distaste for candidate who engage in the bare knuckle politics Cruz/Trump have recently engaged in.

Historically polling in Iowa has been rather in accurate. Iowa almost always produces a surprise result.


Rubio has gone full out of for the religious votes. His ads spend a lot of time with him talking about his religious faith. His stump speech spend a lot of time on his faith. Rubio is a very good politcan and does a very good job connecting with uncommitted, or weekly comitted, religious voters. Carson looks like he is done so Rubio may be able to pick up some of the 10% still supporting Carson.

Team Cruz switched from targeting Trump to going after Rubio on Friday.


As for the debate issue.

39% of GOP caucus voters said they were less likely to vote for Trump as a result of the boycott, while 14% viewed his absence as enhancing the likelihood they would vote for Trump. Fifty-two percent (52%) judged Trump’s boycott as unimportant in impacting their vote

66 is a bigger number then 39. So the numbers do not reflect that spin being put on them about the impact of the Debate. That is a case of wanting to make the numbers say what the reader wants, not what they actually say.

[Free Vulcan]

Nice angle GAJohnnie. It is indeed possible that Rubio made some last minute inroads with the religious contingent.

[katzenjammer]

Agreed, Johnnie may be on to something here...