http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2318January 26, 2016 - Trump, Cruz Go Down To The Wire In Iowa GOP Caucus, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Rubio A Distant Third As Others All But Disappear
The Iowa Republican Caucus is a two-man race going down to the wire with Donald Trump at 31 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 29 percent among likely Republican Caucus participants, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida is at 13 percent, with no other candidate above 7 percent.
This is virtually unchanged from results of a January 11 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Trump at 31 percent, with 29 percent for Cruz and 15 percent for Rubio.
Today, 2 percent are undecided and 39 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.
Among Iowa Republican Caucus-goers, 24 percent say they "would definitely not support" Trump, with 24 percent who would not support former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Only 12 percent say 'no way' to Cruz.
"Despite Sarah Palin's endorsement of Donald Trump and Gov. Terry Branstad's criticism of Sen. Ted Cruz, and despite - or because of - Sen. Cruz' 'New York values' comments, the Iowa Republican Caucus remains too close to call," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
"One week before the caucuses gather, the question is which candidate has the best field organization. If the events of the last two weeks haven't moved the needle, one wonders what would change it in the next six days."
"It all comes down to turnout. And with four in 10 likely caucus participants saying they still might change their mind, this is an especially volatile race," Brown added.
"One thing is increasingly evident, the conservative wing of the Republican party, at least in Iowa, is carrying the day," Brown added.
Cruz is taking the lion's share of the right wing among Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, with Trump taking a good chunk and only a few scraps for the rest of the pack.
Cruz leads Trump:
50 - 34 percent among self-professed Tea Party members;
39 - 27 percent among white, born-again Evangelical Christians;
49 - 29 percent among voters describing themselves as "very conservative."
Trump leads Cruz:
29 - 21 percent among self-identified "somewhat conservative" voters;
37 - 6 percent among voters claiming to be "moderate" or "liberal."
The economy and jobs is the most important issue in deciding their vote, 27 percent of likely Republican Caucus participants say, with 18 percent listing terrorism, 11 percent citing foreign policy and 10 percent pointing to the federal deficit.
From January 18 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 651 Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.
