If the turnout is at the usual 20 percent or so, that would mean about 122,000 Republicans will turn out Monday night. Some GOP consultants are predicting turnout could be significantly higher, perhaps 140,000 – bumping up turnout to about 22 percent. Right now, Iowa has 584,111 registered Democrats. That party enjoyed much higher caucus turnout in 2008 (with the high profile Obama vs. Clinton vs. Edwards battle) with 39.5 percent; their turnout in 2004 (Kerry, Dean, Gephardt) was 23 percent. If turnout is at the 2004 level, we should see about 135,000 Democrats on caucus night; if it’s at 2008 level, we should see 230,000 Democrats at the caucuses. In other words, the maximum turnout we should expect in both caucuses combined is about 370,000. The CBS News Battleground Tracker poll asked 1,247 registered voters, “How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential caucus in Iowa?” and 52 percent said they “definitely would vote.”
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