http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/265421-trump-leads-cruz-by-two-points-in-new-iowa-pollJanuary 11, 2016, 01:03 pm
Trump leading Cruz by two points in new Iowa poll
By Ben Kamisar
Donald Trump leads Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) by two percentage points in a new poll from Iowa, suggesting a tightening race ahead of the state’s Feb. 1 caucuses.
Trump leads the GOP field with 31 percent in Quinnipiac University's new poll, followed closely by Cruz's 29 percent. That slim lead is within the poll’s margin of error of 4 percentage points.
Voters view Cruz more favorably than Trump, however, and more are open to the possibility of voting for him, according to the new findings.
This is only the third poll of the last 11 in Iowa in which Trump is on top, according to an aggregation by RealClearPolitics. Other recent polls have shown Cruz in first place.
Trump in the last week has stepped up attacks on Cruz’s birthplace. Cruz was born in Canada, and Trump argues Democrats could make the case he is not qualified to be president because he is not a natural-born citizen.
Cruz was born to a U.S. mother, and his campaign has argued he would be qualified to be president — just like 2008 GOP presidential nominee Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), who was born in the Panama Canal zone.
The Texas senator won more than a third of the white, born-again evangelical vote in the new poll, a key constituency for him that typically makes up the majority of GOP caucusgoers. Aside of Trump's 27 percent with that group and Sen. Marco Rubio's (R-Fla.) 13 percent, no other candidates won more than one-tenth of the evangelical vote.
Cruz outperformed Trump with college-educated voters, those with an income between $50,000 and $100,000, and those who consider themselves very conservative. On the flip side, Trump did better with those without a college degree, and those making less than $50,000 and more than $100,000.
In the Quinnipiac poll, Rubio sits in third place with 15 percent, followed by Carson at 7 percent and Chris Christie at 4 percent. Jeb Bush has slipped to 3 percent, tied with 2008 Iowa caucus-winner Mike Huckabee. John Kasich and Rand Paul scored 2 percent, while Carly Fiorina and Rick Santorum scored 1 percent.
Quinnipiac surveyed 602 likely Iowa caucusgoers between Jan. 5 and Jan. 10.
--This report was updated at 1:11 P.M.
