Author Topic: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning  (Read 6287 times)

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Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« on: December 14, 2015, 03:04:48 pm »
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/263088-ted-cruz-isnt-just-surging-hes-winning

December 14, 2015, 06:00 am
Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning

By Nomiki Konst, contributor

Every show has an end. Just like "The Apprentice" — gripping the first few few seasons, tired and contrived in the last — Donald Trump's campaign is aging toward death, one reckless outburst at at time. Although the casual political junkie wouldn't know by the looks of most polls, the media fetish with The Donald and his cultish following.

With primaries a bit less than 50 days out, at this point, previously skeptical pundits have assumed not only that Trump is the front-runner in the GOP primary, but that there is no real contest. But while cable news is capitalizing off of kabuki theater, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has been backstage outplaying the entire GOP field.

In the modern ratings-based media world we live in, where candidates get attention off fundraising numbers and sensationalism, we often miss the politics brewing below the surface. Even seasoned politicos get distracted by earned media and national polls; but just as former House Speaker Tip O'Neill (D-Mass.) declared decades ago, the tried and tested formula of winning a presidential primary remains the same: It's all local.

Which is why, at this point in the campaign, we should prioritize "likely GOP voter" polls in early primary states over national and "total registered GOP voters" polls — like the Monmouth University poll out last week taken of Iowa GOP voters who have voted in previous caucuses, which shows Cruz winning at 24 percent (Trump is at 19 percent). Or, Sunday's Des Moines Register poll of likely Republican caucus-goers, which has Cruz at 31 percent and Trump 10 percentage points behind.

Recent general GOP polls (like this one and this one), where Trump is winning, factor in new Republican voters — a key portion of his support, but also those less likely to engage in the arduous Iowa caucus voting. And if those voters don't turn out, suddenly Trump drops below Cruz (in Iowa and South Carolina) and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (in New Hampshire) in early primary states, making him dead on arrival to that "brokered convention" the media are fantasizing about.

All the focused polls in early primary states this week show Cruz's momentum growing, a reflection of his formulaic long-term strategy centered on fundraising, investment in ground game across the country, key endorsements and messaging to a coalition of conservative voters.

As we approach the final stretch before primaries begin, third-quarter fundraising reports indicate the health of a presidential campaign. Cruz not only out-raised all other candidates ($12.2 million), but he has assiduously maintained the most cash on hand ($13.8 million). While other big raisers (former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina) have spent resources on pricey ads, Cruz focused on field — perhaps saving media buys for the final days and tight race states. Cruz's investment in ground operations has paid off, as he notably has the strongest infrastructure in Iowa and South Carolina, and is far ahead of the pack in Super Tuesday primary states.

Cruz's organizing success is related to the number of conservative influencers he has wooed — from prominent conservatives like Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) and influential evangelical pastors. In presidential primaries, endorsements still matter, as community leaders are surrogate advocates for the campaign — speaking to congregations and at events, making personal phone calls and rallying other leaders.

You may wonder why Cruz surged this week? A predictable phenomenon in GOP primaries is occurring: As the flavors of the month rise and fall, the candidates focused on the long game benefit. Last week, Cruz picked up evangelical support from rival candidate Ben Carson, who dropped from 32 percent to 13 percent in the past six weeks in Iowa alone. And with 65 percent of South Carolina GOP primary voters identifying as evangelical or born-again, Cruz will most likely jump ahead a couple more points in the next few weeks.

Cruz's long-term campaign strategy has focused on a coalition of conservatives, over half of the Republican primary voters: Tea Partyers, evangelical whites and far-right conservatives. His message is been part pastor-like and part renegade-like, challenging the GOP and the establishment to send a true conservative to the White House to "take on the Washington cartel." Cruz often reminds voters that he is the only GOP candidate with a record of taking on Washington — as he recently recalled what his strategist told him about his candidacy, "'America hates Washington. Washington hates you. That ain't bad.'"

But perhaps the most intriguing factor contributing to Cruz's success is Trump's overt extremism. Suddenly, Cruz — whom I admittedly once called "a flashback to Medieval Times" on "Lou Dobbs Tonight" — is the palatable conservative alternative for likely GOP voters — and even the GOP establishment. When asked about Cruz’s toxic relationship with his colleagues, a high-ranking GOP consultant told me that "the GOP establishment may hate Ted Cruz, but they fear Donald Trump."

Furthermore, Iowa is not essential for a Cruz victory, but it is essential for Trump. While Trump has surprised pundits by his Iowa ground game, getting his 'new GOP voter support" out to caucus will be far more difficult than getting out the vote for Cruz's "likely GOP voters." And to gain the lead again in Iowa, Trump will have to prevent Cruz from winning over any of Carson's (or any other conservative candidate's) lagging support.

The last mile of this drawn-out early state primary campaign will be difficult for Trump. As we inch toward Iowa, he will likely make more outrageous statements to woe undecided conservatives. If Cruz remains smart, he will continue to praise Trump. In the meantime, for those worried over the demise of our Constitution under President Trump, have no fear. Ted Cruz, former clerk to late Supreme Court Chief Justice William Rehnquist, is here to stay. Hyper-disciplined, Cruz's multifaceted strategy — a formula of raising and saving cash, prioritizing field over media, focusing on evangelicals and anti-establishment conservatives — has solidified support across all primary states. And in coming weeks, as candidates fade, expect Trump's tirades to continue, and watch as Cruz quietly capitalizes.
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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #1 on: December 14, 2015, 03:07:20 pm »
Go Ted!!!

"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
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Online libertybele

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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #2 on: December 14, 2015, 03:11:08 pm »
blij26 :da man:
I Believe in the United States of America as a Government of the people, by the people, for the people; whose just powers are derived from the consent of the governed; a democracy in a republic; a sovereign nation of many sovereign states; a perfect union one and inseparable; established upon those principles of freedom, equality, justice and humanity for which American patriots sacrificed their lives and fortunes.  I therefore believe it is my duty to my country to love it; to support its Constitution; to obey its laws to respect its flag; and to defend it against all enemies.

Offline Millee

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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #3 on: December 14, 2015, 03:22:32 pm »
Maybe there's hope for our country after all. 

Offline EdinVA

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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #4 on: December 14, 2015, 03:24:32 pm »
Although I am happy for Cruz, I am puzzled why we put so much significance in the Iowa Caucus...
Iowa has 2 million registered voters and only 120,000 of which actually vote in presidential elections and assuming there is something along the lines of a 50/50 split between dems and reps, that means around 60,000 non-democratic votes state wide.

These polls are of ONLY people that previously participated in a caucus so I would guess we are talking about a few thousand people, not very representative in my view.
Given the lack on interest in voting by Iowans, I am not convinced we are really seeing a trend but the media's attempt to generate noise.

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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #5 on: December 14, 2015, 03:38:38 pm »
This much is true....should Trump lose fair and square, I hope he doesn't go third party.

I'm speaking about winning fair and square, however.

And I'm not talking about Iowa or New Hampshire either. 
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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #6 on: December 14, 2015, 03:39:39 pm »
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

Offline GAJohnnie

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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #7 on: December 14, 2015, 03:45:18 pm »
Although I am happy for Cruz, I am puzzled why we put so much significance in the Iowa Caucus...
Iowa has 2 million registered voters and only 120,000 of which actually vote in presidential elections and assuming there is something along the lines of a 50/50 split between dems and reps, that means around 60,000 non-democratic votes state wide.

These polls are of ONLY people that previously participated in a caucus so I would guess we are talking about a few thousand people, not very representative in my view.
Given the lack on interest in voting by Iowans, I am not convinced we are really seeing a trend but the media's attempt to generate noise.

Horse race mentality. The "media" needs drama and hype. Just ask President Santorum and Huckabee how "critical" winning Iowa is for a candidate.

Offline GAJohnnie

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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #8 on: December 14, 2015, 03:46:14 pm »
This much is true....should Trump lose fair and square, I hope he doesn't go third party.

I'm speaking about winning fair and square, however.

And I'm not talking about Iowa or New Hampshire either.

Based on "sore loser" laws in Texas etc, Trump cannot run third party now.

Offline Free Vulcan

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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #9 on: December 14, 2015, 03:49:58 pm »
Although I am happy for Cruz, I am puzzled why we put so much significance in the Iowa Caucus...
Iowa has 2 million registered voters and only 120,000 of which actually vote in presidential elections and assuming there is something along the lines of a 50/50 split between dems and reps, that means around 60,000 non-democratic votes state wide.

These polls are of ONLY people that previously participated in a caucus so I would guess we are talking about a few thousand people, not very representative in my view.
Given the lack on interest in voting by Iowans, I am not convinced we are really seeing a trend but the media's attempt to generate noise.

The caucus have about 120K, but the average vote in an election is about 1.5M.
The Republic is lost.

Offline Longiron

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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #10 on: December 14, 2015, 03:52:20 pm »
This much is true....should Trump lose fair and square, I hope he doesn't go third party.

I'm speaking about winning fair and square, however.

And I'm not talking about Iowa or New Hampshire either.

If TRUMP lose fair and square meaning to Cruz he will not go 3rd party. However, if the RINOGOPe screw him at the convention with some BS rule that puts RUBIO or BUSHIE in there he will and should do it. Another point if CRUZ wins and the RINOGOP screws him what does he do ??? The RINOGOPe hate CRUZ more than TRUMP because he knows where the bodies are buried.  At this point they want to split the TRUMP /Cruz supporters and trying to drive a wedge between both. The 'party of Stupid" does not think both support groups see that coming. JMO

Offline EdinVA

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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #11 on: December 14, 2015, 04:24:13 pm »
The caucus have about 120K, but the average vote in an election is about 1.5M.

Your right... I know I read that somewhere but..... ggezzz

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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #12 on: December 14, 2015, 05:49:24 pm »
If TRUMP lose fair and square meaning to Cruz he will not go 3rd party. However, if the RINOGOPe screw him at the convention with some BS rule that puts RUBIO or BUSHIE in there he will and should do it. Another point if CRUZ wins and the RINOGOP screws him what does he do ??? The RINOGOPe hate CRUZ more than TRUMP because he knows where the bodies are buried.  At this point they want to split the TRUMP /Cruz supporters and trying to drive a wedge between both. The 'party of Stupid" does not think both support groups see that coming. JMO

?? How do you know that Trump will not run on a 3rd party ticket if he loses to Cruz or for that matter, anyone else?? I see that as a possibility. Trump himself has stated that he does not like to lose and he doesn't lose. 
I Believe in the United States of America as a Government of the people, by the people, for the people; whose just powers are derived from the consent of the governed; a democracy in a republic; a sovereign nation of many sovereign states; a perfect union one and inseparable; established upon those principles of freedom, equality, justice and humanity for which American patriots sacrificed their lives and fortunes.  I therefore believe it is my duty to my country to love it; to support its Constitution; to obey its laws to respect its flag; and to defend it against all enemies.

Offline caroline27

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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #13 on: December 14, 2015, 05:57:18 pm »
Ted is gaining momentum!!! Also, if you guys are supporters, vote for Ted in this pre-debate poll:

https://theagora.co/townhalls/GOPdebate/polls

If he comes out on top he will have a ton of momentum going in to the new year & the primaries!

Offline sinkspur

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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #14 on: December 14, 2015, 06:16:39 pm »
Trump has been searching around for a wedge to use against Cruz.

On Friday, he tried ethanol, said few evangelicals come out of Cuba, his temperament.

You'll know he's desperate when he says Cruz is not a natural born citizen so is ineligible to run.  He'll go there just as sure as night follows day.
Roy Moore's "spiritual warfare" is driving past a junior high without stopping.

Offline GAJohnnie

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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #15 on: December 14, 2015, 06:26:33 pm »
?? How do you know that Trump will not run on a 3rd party ticket if he loses to Cruz or for that matter, anyone else?? I see that as a possibility. Trump himself has stated that he does not like to lose and he doesn't lose.

Sore Loser laws in Texas and other states makes it impossible for Trump to run in the primary and then run as an Independent in the General Election

Offline Sanguine

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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #16 on: December 14, 2015, 06:28:10 pm »
Although I am happy for Cruz, I am puzzled why we put so much significance in the Iowa Caucus...
Iowa has 2 million registered voters and only 120,000 of which actually vote in presidential elections and assuming there is something along the lines of a 50/50 split between dems and reps, that means around 60,000 non-democratic votes state wide.

These polls are of ONLY people that previously participated in a caucus so I would guess we are talking about a few thousand people, not very representative in my view.
Given the lack on interest in voting by Iowans, I am not convinced we are really seeing a trend but the media's attempt to generate noise.

From an older article (please excuse the source):

Quote
...Iowa's electoral prominence started as a fluke. In the late 1960s, the Iowa Democratic Party ruled that at least 30 days had to pass between the caucus and the district conventions (for which the caucuses select delegates), plus another 30 between the district conventions and the state convention (where Iowa's delegates are officially selected). The purpose of the ruling was to allow enough time to work out convention details, like the printing of pamphlets and the staffing of sites. The 1972 Democratic state convention was scheduled for May 20, which meant the latest the caucus could be held was Jan. 24. It thus supplanted New Hampshire as the first contest on the road to the White House, a distinction the Granite State had held since 1920. George McGovern took advantage of this peculiarity by campaigning hard in the state. His surprisingly strong showing there—he came in second to Edmund Muskie—created a fair amount of media buzz and helped propel him toward the Democratic nomination...

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/explainer/2004/01/why_does_iowa_get_to_go_first.html

Which doesn't answer what you were really asking, but it's interesting.

Offline truth_seeker

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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #17 on: December 14, 2015, 06:38:41 pm »
From an older article (please excuse the source):

Which doesn't answer what you were really asking, but it's interesting.
So Iowa got to be first on a fluke, used to get McGovern the nomination.

Wow. Let's be all giddy about it, and tout the importance and meaning, since Iowa voted for Huckabee and Santorum the last two times, then for Obama in the general.

Yeah, by contemporary GOP/conservative standards Iowa is really, really important. Our new chorus:

"GOPe not for you or for me, hurray, hoorah."
"God must love the common man, he made so many of them.�  Abe Lincoln

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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #18 on: December 14, 2015, 06:43:20 pm »
So Iowa got to be first on a fluke, used to get McGovern the nomination.

Wow. Let's be all giddy about it, and tout the importance and meaning, since Iowa voted for Huckabee and Santorum the last two times, then for Obama in the general.

Yeah, by contemporary GOP/conservative standards Iowa is really, really important. Our new chorus:

"GOPe not for you or for me, hurray, hoorah."

https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2015/12/five-reasons-why-the-ted-cruz-surge-is-for-real
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

Offline EdinVA

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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #19 on: December 14, 2015, 06:54:04 pm »
From an older article (please excuse the source):

Which doesn't answer what you were really asking, but it's interesting.

That is interesting... thanks

Offline Longiron

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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #20 on: December 14, 2015, 06:55:27 pm »
?? How do you know that Trump will not run on a 3rd party ticket if he loses to Cruz or for that matter, anyone else?? I see that as a possibility. Trump himself has stated that he does not like to lose and he doesn't lose.

I don't know that but TRUMP loves this country and if CRUZ gets it I do not think he will do that but JMO. However, how do you know CRUZ does not do 3rd party? What happens if he wins the Primary gets to the Pubbie luv festival of RINOS and they screw TC and bring in RUBIO or Bushie somehow??? Does that mean TC is ok with losing ? TC is hated by the RINOGOPe BUT they FEAR TRUMP and TRUMP is just using Leverage BUT he is not predictable and that is a good thing. TC is more PREDICTABLE because he is a politician and before you all start considering TRUMP is done please look below? IMO CRUZ would make a great POTUS and will support him 100% but for now TRUMP can make this country great and SAFE again. :patriot:


http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/12/14/poll-donald-trump-leading-iowa-carson-sinks/

Offline musiclady

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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #21 on: December 14, 2015, 06:58:13 pm »
Maybe there's hope for our country after all. 

 :beer:
Character still matters.  It always matters.

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Use the time God is giving us to seek His will and feel His presence.

Offline truth_seeker

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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #22 on: December 14, 2015, 07:01:04 pm »
TRUMPIE

CRUZIE
"God must love the common man, he made so many of them.�  Abe Lincoln

Offline musiclady

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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #23 on: December 14, 2015, 07:09:18 pm »
TRUMPIE

CRUZIE

The two are not similar.  One's a serious conservative candidate, and the other is a liberal reality show host........
Character still matters.  It always matters.

I wear a mask as an exercise in liberty and love for others.  To see it as an infringement of liberty is to entirely miss the point.  Be kind.

"Sometimes I think the Church would be better off if we would call a moratorium on activity for about six weeks and just wait on God to see what He is waiting to do for us. That's what they did before Pentecost."   - A. W. Tozer

Use the time God is giving us to seek His will and feel His presence.

Offline truth_seeker

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Re: Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning
« Reply #24 on: December 14, 2015, 07:14:24 pm »
The two are not similar.  One's a serious conservative candidate, and the other is a liberal reality show host........
I'm just poking fun, at the level of our discourse, here.
"God must love the common man, he made so many of them.�  Abe Lincoln