http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/jeb-though-next-in-line-is-not-the-gop-favorite/article/2566394?utm_campaign=Washington%20Examiner:%20Opinion%20Digest&utm_source=Washington%20Examiner:%20Opinion%20Digest%20-%2006/17/15&utm_medium=emailJeb, though 'next in line,' is not the GOP favorite
By Timothy P. Carney | June 16, 2015 | 5:45 pm
By the rules of royal succession — and the voting habits of the Republican electorate — Jeb Bush should be the 2016 Republican nominee.
For five decades, you could make good money simply betting in the GOP presidential primary on the establishment candidate whose "turn" it was. But that rule no longer seems to apply. Jeb, despite the history, is hardly inevitable. He's not even the frontrunner.
Here's a brief history of the contested GOP primaries in the last half century:
In 2012, Republicans nominated Mitt Romney, who four years earlier had won the second most states (11) and the second most popular votes (4.7 million).
Republicans in 2008 nominated the candidate (John McCain) who in the previous open GOP primary had won New Hampshire and finished second on the score of the national popular vote, with 6.1 million.
In 2000, Republicans didn't pick the previous runner-up (it was Pat Buchanan, and he was running on the Reform Party ticket). Instead, they went the European primogeniture route: They selected the oldest son of the most recent Republican President.
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