http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/05/28/what_if_the_republican_party_cant_decide.htmlWhat if the Republican Party Can't Decide?
By David Byler - May 28, 2015
Yesterday I analyzed endorsement data from previous presidential primaries to show that Hillary Clinton is performing very well in the invisible Democratic primary. Today I’m going to turn to the Republican invisible primary and compare that contest to past invisible primary battles. To anyone unfamiliar with the term “invisible primary,” I would point to my piece from yesterday, to some of the good analyses at other news sites, or to “The Party Decides” – it’s one of the best books on the invisible primary, and it’s the basis of much of this analysis.
But if you’re strapped for time, here’s my two-sentence explanation: the invisible primary is the process by which the party – broadly defined to include party elites, elected officials, interest group members and activists from the local to federal level – attempts to come to consensus on the presidential nomination before the primary so it can leverage its funds, organization and influence to persuade primary voters to nominate its preferred candidate and reject candidates who are deemed unacceptable. Party support is a big advantage, and the candidate who wins the invisible primary often wins the nomination – but it’s not a guarantee.
While Clinton dominates the Democratic invisible primary – locking up a huge number of endorsements and so far only attracting one factional challenger – none of the Republican candidates has similar numbers. In fact, in terms of endorsements from public officials -- arguably the best publicly available window into the invisible primary -- no Republican candidate has even started winning the invisible primary.
Fortunately, we do have some previous examples of races in which no candidate dominates the invisible primary early. When this happens, one of two things usually occurs: a candidate wins a late, weak or partial victory in the invisible primary and (usually) goes on to win the nomination, or the party simply fails to coalesce.
The Party Grudgingly or Partially Accepts a Candidate
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