http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/01/republicans-2015-ready-for-hillary-113956_full.html#.VKqWF3uGNOUWhy Republicans Are Ready for Hillary
Her mistakes have GOP candidates lining up. But beware the pundits' confidence.
By MATT LATIMER
January 04, 2015
For conservatives, the dawn of a presidential cycle is always the best time of the political season. It’s that glorious springtime when every Republican candidate promises to be the next Ronald Reagan. Of course, over time they slowly dissolve into Gerald Ford.
It’s also the time of year when the dons of the Washington establishment tell the rest of us who the conservative grassroots will select next year to lose politely to the Democrats. It’s always fascinating how many people in D.C. believe they can project how conservatives across America will vote without ever really talking to them. The only Republicans D.C. elites know are the ones they bump into at Talbott’s or who drive their BMW X-3s to parents’ night at St. Albans—not people who go to church instead of watching “Meet the Press” or who’d trudge through snow to vote in a caucus in Iowa. Nonetheless, Washingtonians are so certain about next year’s outcome that they’re already angling to become pals with the people most likely to be in charge of invitations to events at the Clinton White House.
Conservatives do have one thing to be thankful for: The fact is that Hillary Clinton learned so many lessons from her surprising 2008 defeat that she’s repeating each of them all over again. Once more she is running as the overconfident, inevitable nominee with safe speeches filled with mush and a bloated campaign staff that already is leaking against each other in the press.
Which is probably why so many Republicans, fresh off of their 2014 election triumphs, are excited. They have a chance. It is also why so many prospective GOP candidates—18 or 20 by some estimates—are considering a run. Indeed, the GOP field looks to be so crowded that its first debate may have to be held on an aircraft carrier. The USS Ronald Reagan is available.
Almost all of the oft-mentioned candidates are people of quality and worth, with impressive resumes and realistic shots at the nomination, if circumstance fall a certain way. (This is the point at which your conflict-of-interest plagued columnist should concede that I’ve worked with some of the potential candidates, even worked for some of their enemies and in one instance worked for one of their brothers in the White House.)
Of course, as with any presidential election these days, there are bound to be a few “Doing it to Build my Brand” campaigns—with candidates running a skeleton crew of neophytes in order to score a few book deals and up their speaking fees. Think of them as Republican Al Sharptons or, if we want to be even more obscure, Mike Gravels: candidates who would be so shocked if they won even one primary contest that they’d probably ask for a recount.
And what would a presidential season be without the semi-annual Running of the Bull, the never-gonna-happen Donald Trump campaign, his declarations always conveniently timed for new seasons of The Celebrity Apprentice. Everyone please watch—supposedly Ian Ziering and one of the kids from The Cosby Show have decided to demean themselves before Mr. Trump this year—so Apprentice has good ratings and we are spared this spectacle again.
With the GOP field taking shape rather nicely, and so little to make fun of, we are left to train our guffaws on those always vulnerable for good-natured mockery: the D.C. pundit class and their confident delusions and myths about the Republican race.
Myth #1: Mitt Romney will run
There is nothing this town likes more than to get everyone to root for someone only to then slowly take them apart bit by bit: sort of what George R. R. Martin did to the Starks on “Game of Thrones.” This year the D.C. class is prepping the former Massachusetts governor for that role.
Assuredly, no one has performed a better comeback in terms of public esteem than Mr. Romney. And it’s no accident that his image picked up after most of the D.C. consultants who stocked his failed campaign moved on to bring bad ideas and general doom to other presidential hopefuls across the land. Basking in praise and leading in polls, Romney, or at least a part of him, clearly wants to run for president one more time. But Romney, for all of his talk of being a Reagan in waiting, is basically a cautious and practical man. He didn’t make his millions by purchasing lottery tickets and waiting for lightning to strike. In the end, the risks from running will prove far greater than the potential reward. Unfortunately for him, he’s had one too many chances. Lose the presidency twice—and you’re unfortunate. Lose a third time and you’re a national joke. Forever.
Myth # 2: This race has a frontrunner
There is no frontrunner in the GOP race. Most D.C. reporters don’t believe this, of course. Neither do the top GOP consultants and pundits.
All of whom love to dine together at places like The Palm and tell each other how smart they are. In 1980 these same D.C. insiders thought anybody but Ronald Reagan would be the GOP nominee—he was too old! too conservative! too dumb! Didn’t come to enough Georgetown parties! And guess who won anyway?
This year’s line is that Jeb Bush has the GOP nomination for the taking. That’s very good news for journalists in town—they already know the Bush people. Great folks, good sources, the kind who quietly laugh about the Tea Party during rounds of highball at the Club. The D.C. crowd can’t wait to go back to Kennebunkport and ride in speedboats.
Yet to many others outside the D.C. bubble, there’s something vaguely depressing that America might replay Election 1992—Bush v. Clinton. Are these two families really so singularly special that we honestly can’t find anybody else? Or are the voters just that lazy? A Bush-Clinton rematch would be like a prolonged version of NPR’s “Serial”: a long, convoluted journey with twists and turns that only took us back to right where we started, a little more confused and frustrated for the trip.
In any event, history is not on the Bushes’ side this time. At least not yet. When I worked in the White House of George W. Bush, the oft-expressed, though usually whispered, sentiment was that Jeb was the smarter brother. On arcane bits of policy, this was probably true, although W. was often surprisingly astute on the minutia when it came to issues in which he had interest. But when it came to politics, the view is even more questionable. Consider that in 1994, Jeb was the odds-on favorite to win the race for governor in Florida—and lost. That same year W. was written off by the D.C. pundit class as a goner in Texas against Ann Richards—whom everyone in Washington loved. He, of course, won.
And even with recent media salivation—I mean, saturation—on Jeb’s possible presidential bid, he still hasn’t garnered about 25 percent of the vote in GOP polls. (Phantom candidate Mitt Romney beats him.) Which means, that at least three-quarters of the electorate that supposedly can’t wait for the Bushes Round 3 currently prefer someone else. That number is likely to get worse. Which brings us to ...
Myth #3: It is the time of the moderates (or the Tea Party is dead)
George W. Bush also was smart enough to know something about the GOP presidential contest that so far seems to elude his younger brother. The Jon Huntsman strategy doesn’t work. You don’t run to the embrace of the D.C. political class and—horrors—the mainstream media if you want to win the GOP nomination. The minute I saw Huntsman treated to a gushing profile in Vogue back in 2011—“his left eyebrow is pitched slightly lower than the other, and the eye below it has a slight squint. This gives him a perpetual expression of thoughtful engagement, the look of someone listening intently to what others are saying”—I knew he was doomed in Iowa. Even today D.C. politicos don’t get this about the Republican base: When you are the toast of the liberal media, you are toast in Des Moines. The sure sign Jeb is about to drop out of the race is when he gets a photo taken by Annie Leibovitz.
And yet our political chattering class truly seems to believe that across the plains of Iowa and deep in the hills of New Hampshire are millions of Republican caucus goers and primary voters shaking their heads and whispering, “Please bring us more candidates from the middle of the road.” That is simply not how the most committed GOPers think. If anything, they’re more fed-up with the moderates in Washington—which is how they think of almost every Republican in the nation’s capital—than ever.
Even those making the slightest observation of the GOP should see that the base is far more excited by people they think of as true believers—Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, for example—than they are for, say, Chuck Grassley. This explains why in 2014 almost every GOPer—from Mitch McConnell on down—ran as conservatives, not moderates. Indeed, they posed so far to the right that they made Margaret Thatcher look like a hippie who wanted to set American flags on fire.
But every so often a candidate decides he’s going to show us something different. John McCain nearly derailed his 2008 nomination by challenging his party’s base on immigration. And that was just one hot-button issue to fight with his own voters over; Jeb Bush has picked not one, but three (immigration, education reform and taxes.) We will soon see what havoc that wreaks for him. Rest assured: The “tea party” label may be badly damaged, but the frustration and disillusionment with Washington that started the movement is as strong as ever.
Myth #4: Chris Christie was permanently damaged by Bridgegate
One candidate who seems unlikely to misunderstand the reality of the GOP nomination process is the ever-savvy Chris Christie. He didn’t make himself a presidential contender through his sensible compromises with Democrats in the New Jersey legislature, but his passionate harangues against conservatives’ favorite enemies: the media, big unions, government bureaucracy. It was for that reason that so many Republicans pined for him to run in 2012—the great hope of conservatives and the world.
That of course was then. Today D.C. bigwigs speak quite confidently about how Christie’s aspirations have been ruined by “Bridgegate.” The scandal remains—solely—a Washington fixation. Want to bet how many people in South Carolina or Iowa or the Super Tuesday states can recite the details of that episode? Mention “Bridgegate” to most of them and they’ll think you’re referring to tires.
If there’s one thing candidates can count on, it’s the short attention span of the voters. Christie may have other problems should he enter the race, but this won’t be one of them. If he decides to run, he’ll start on the right and surprise a lot of people who’ve counted him out. Then of course they’ll all be saying they predicted the Christie comeback all along.
Myth #5: This race will go all the way to the convention
We haven’t heard this one yet, but with so many candidates in the race, it’s only a matter of time before the D.C. consensus turns to thoughts of a brokered GOP convention. Such a spectacle hasn’t happened to the GOP since 1948—and for good reason. Republicans are an orderly crew. They’ll kick the candidates’ tires for a couple of primaries or two, but pretty soon settle on the man, or woman, they want as their standard-bearer. At this point, that could be anybody. Which is what is going to make 2016 so fun.
Matt Latimer was a former speechwriter to President George W. Bush. He is currently a co-partner in Javelin, a literary agency and communications firm based in Alexandria, Va.
