http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/12/04/politics-counts-shutdowns-political-damage-may-be-overrated/6:17 am ET
Dec 4, 2014 POLITICS
Politics Counts: Shutdown’s Political Damage May Be Overrated
By DANTE CHINNI
Dante Chinni writes Politics Counts as a regular Capital Journal feature. Mr. Chinni is the director of the American Communities Project at American University, which examines different types of communities across the U.S.
Government shutdowns aren’t exactly new in Washington. The last one, a 16-day affair, was only a little more than a year ago in October 2013. But this time the story seems to be playing out differently, in part because Republicans are reportedly very keen on avoiding the s-word.
The GOP, which who won complete control of Congress in November, wants to show it can get things done and wants to avoid any public relations damage a shutdown might cause.
Whether or not the party succeeds in getting things done can only be measured later, but when you go back and look at the numbers, concerns about public relations damage may be overstated.
Washington isn’t a popular place right now, and neither are the parties that drive its politics. In the November Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, 32% said they had positive feelings about the GOP. For the Democrats it wasn’t much better, 38%.
But in reality, those numbers haven’t really moved radically for Republicans over the past six years. There are peaks and valleys but no real up or down trend.
In that time, the GOP has hit a ceiling of 38% positive twice – in December 2010 and September 2012 – and it has hit a floor of 24% three times – in August 2010, October 2013 (the last shutdown) and January 2014 (when the so-called fiscal cliff fight loomed).
But look at that chart and notice that the bumps up and blips down are pretty temporary — and in relatively short order, the number finds its way back to sea level, which is about 30. In fact, looking at the 47 data points in that above chart, the median and the mean are both 30.
That’s not to suggest a higher number isn’t possible for Republicans. It could be that the new Republican Congress breaks the steady partisan logjam that has come to define Washington and elevates itself in the eyes of the public.
But while the numbers don’t suggest that a government shutdown would be good for the GOP or President Barack Obama, a shutdown also probably would not be a public relations catastrophe – particularly for the GOP, which seems to be fairly stable in its poll numbers. Call it the upside of low positive numbers.
A few other numbers points suggest any shutdown damage for the GOP might be limited: 8 and 10. Those numbers represent the smallest possible gains the Republicans made in the Senate and House, respectively, with some races still to be determined.
And remember the fall 2014 election was held only 13 months after the last shutdown.
graph at link
