http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/2016-presidential-update-for-republicans-a-vacancy-at-the-top/2016 Presidential Update: For Republicans, a Vacancy at the Top
GOP field features long list but no obvious frontrunner
Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley, U.Va. Center for Politics September 4th, 2014
It’s lonely at the top of the Republican field — like, “top of Mt. Everest” lonely.
In our latest shuffle of the 2016 Crystal Ball presidential outlook, we’ve decided that the Republican first tier is…empty. Our Republican friends might object, but deep down, we think they would be hard-pressed to argue for any single name to head this long list: There’s simply no one in the field who is clearly more likely to get the nomination than a half-dozen or more others.
That does not necessarily mean the field is poor. There are many talented politicians on the list, and we could see any number of them potentially emerging as the nominee — and even winning the presidency if conditions allow. But it’s nearly impossible to figure out who that person is, and it even could be that the eventual nominee will be someone not listed among the 16 names below. Trying to handicap the presidential race years in advance is fun, although it should be done with great humility.
We still believe Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor and member of the GOP dynasty, would be a frontrunner if he entered the race, and we suspect the party’s establishment forces favor him over all other candidates. He also would have the potential to dissuade other establishment-oriented candidates from running. That said, Bush has done absolutely nothing to suggest that he’s truly interested in taking on the campaign. So he remains the first name on the list, but is no longer first tier.
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