http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=B90F2ECA-A0F3-4EC4-A64E-F47870C55CC9 White House strife stalls Obama immigration plans
By: Carrie Budoff Brown
August 30, 2014 01:10 PM EDT
White House officials are locked in an intense debate over whether President Barack Obama should announce a plan to defer deportations for millions of undocumented immigrants before Election Day — mindful that whichever choice they make could be tagged as the reason that Democrats lost the Senate.
The problem: a lack of consensus, both inside and outside the West Wing, on the political ramifications. With the most endangered Senate Democrats faring better than expected heading into Labor Day, each option carries risks that could shake up the political environment — in essence, creating a September or October surprise.
A major announcement before the election could excite the beleaguered progressive base, particularly in Colorado, where Democratic Sen. Mark Udall is locked in a tight race despite the state’s Democratic leanings.
But it could hurt Democrats in the four most competitive Senate races. In Arkansas, Alaska, Louisiana and North Carolina, Latinos comprise only a fraction of the voting population and the Democratic incumbents want the president to disappear for the next two months.
If Obama waits until after November and still loses the Senate, immigration reform advocates will argue that had the president acted, the Democratic base would have been motivated to turn out for the party. Many Latinos are already frustrated with Obama’s handling of immigration through the years. Another delay risks a backlash from the community that could damage the ticket — although some Democrats argue it would be short-lived because Obama could quickly win Latinos back with the executive order.
“I don’t have any doubt that he is going to act. It’s a matter of when he is going to act,” said Angie Kelley, vice president for immigration at the Center for American Progress, who maintains close ties with the White House. “He’s going to have to pick his poison.”
The substance of the executive action isn’t much in doubt. Most observers expect Obama to defer deportations for millions of undocumented immigrants who have family ties and years in the country. Staff at the White House and the Department of Homeland Security have been trading proposals for weeks. The details matter in determining the scope of the program, but advocates are reasonably confident that it will be ambitious.
But the best timing for the announcement has created divisions in the White House, on Capitol Hill and among immigration activists.
Obama hinted during a press conference Thursday that he may not act by the end of summer, a deadline he set in June when he turned from a legislative strategy to an administrative one. At the White House briefing Friday, press secretary Josh Earnest also declined to say that Obama would make a move soon.
“That’s putting the cart before the horse,” Earnest said. “The president hasn’t actually received the final recommendations from his attorney general and the secretary of Homeland Security for what options are available to him for acting unilaterally to address some of the problems of our broken immigration system. So those who are speculating about how those recommendations might be implemented are a little ahead of themselves.”
White House officials have privately expressed frustration with the timeline to decide by the end of summer, which was first suggested by Senate Democratic leaders back in February. As the chances for legislative action diminished, Sens. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) had demanded that Obama act on his own to fix the immigration system if Congress failed to pass a bill by August.
In June, Obama made a dramatic statement from the Rose Garden that he would go it alone, once Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson finished a review.
“I expect their recommendations before the end of summer and I intend to adopt those recommendations without further delay,” Obama said.
But around the same time, the influx of young children from Central America across the southwestern border was beginning to gain widespread public attention. Polls over the last two months have shown a decline in approval for the president’s handling of immigration, changing the political calculus for Democrats.
The Democratic incumbents in the four key Senate races have since voiced concern. Sens. Kay Hagan of North Carolina and Mark Pryor of Arkansas have said Obama doesn’t have the authority to act unilaterally, while Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu and Alaska Sen. Mark Begich want the president to show restraint.
The mood among activists has shifted up and down over the last few weeks. Weeks ago, they picked up hints that the White House was getting cold feet. But early this week, activists felt like they were in a good place, with an announcement expected soon after Obama returned from an overseas trip next week. But the noncommittal statements from Obama and his top aides in recent days has stoke fears once again.
“There has definitely been more of a back and forth in the White House,” said one immigration advocate who has attended regular briefings at the White House.
The White House has also been meeting with leaders in big companies like Cisco, Intel and Accenture, hoping to add more changes that would get them on board. Possible changes include recapturing unused green cards and tweaking existing work authorization programs.
A senior administration official said this week that no decision has been made on the substance of the executive action, let alone the timing.
“We have to do the ‘what’ first,” the official said.
