http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=EFB29CEF-8ED2-4BA9-AB90-1B5F5C3B2BA1 Obama's campaign no-fly zone
By: Carrie Budoff Brown and Jennifer Epstein
August 29, 2014 03:19 PM EDT
In an election that Republicans want to make all about President Barack Obama, the White House is determined to make him all but disappear in the battleground states that matter.
The White House is putting the finishing touches on a post-Labor Day schedule that will send the president to states where he’s still popular, such as: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Illinois and California, Obama officials and Democratic operatives said this week.
But in the red states that will determine control of the Senate, Obama will remain scarce. That means no personal campaign visits to states like Arkansas, Alaska, Louisiana and North Carolina. He may do some targeted outreach through robocalls, digital ads and conference calls, but the campaign plan is clear: Stay away from candidates he’s already hurting.
Obama’s no-fly zone for certain Senate campaigns reflects the deep concern among Democrats about his drag on the national ticket. Obama can’t seem to get his poll numbers out of the low 40s, he’s struggled through an endless stream of foreign policy crises and he’s the last person that many candidates want to be forced to defend on the campaign trail.
Six years ago, Obama’s massive campaign organization helped to sweep several Senate Democrats, now the most endangered, into office with his appeal to unite political factions.
Now, he’s an attack line.
Across the country, from Alaska and Colorado to Louisiana and North Carolina, Republicans are citing how often the Democratic incumbent sided with the White House on votes in Congress. It’s a tactic Democrats used to great effect in 2006 when they wrestled back control of the Senate by linking every incumbent to President George W. Bush, who was even more unpopular than Obama.
“He’s going to be an anchor on each one of these Democrats all the way through,” said Guy Harrison, a media consultant for the Republican Senate nominees in Arkansas, Colorado and North Carolina. “They’re trying to grasp every life preserver they can but the anchor of Obama is still going to pull them down.”
White House officials argue that Obama never would’ve been deployed to assist red state Democrats, even at the height of his popularity. The better, more effective use of his time is to assist in states with key House races, such as Illinois, Pennsylvania and California, a senior administration official said. Obama still retains strong support in the Democratic base, and he can motivate African Americans and Latinos like few others can.
“It will ramp up as time goes on,” the official said.
Party operatives also expect Obama to help Democrat Charlie Crist in his bid for Florida governor, and perhaps Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn, who is trailing Republican Bruce Rauner, and Michigan Democrat Mark Schauer, who is trying to unseat Republican Gov. Rick Snyder.
The White House hasn’t made any final decisions on the schedule since the needs around Labor Day could shift by October, the official said.
“We’ll take him any where, any how, any way,” Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.), the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “Wherever he thinks he can be helpful, we would love to have him.”
Israel and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) briefed Obama on the state-of-play in the House races before the president left for his vacation in Martha’s Vineyard. Their requests aren’t as politically challenging. They have asked him to visit New York, California and Illinois, where there are a cluster of races in each state. Obama has also made fundraising appeals through emails, and headlined nine events so far for the DCCC.
The president remains the top draw on the fundraising circuit. He and Hillary Clinton are scheduled to headline a mid-September event for the Democratic National Committee’s Women’s Leadership Forum.
Obama’s message to donors: liberal voters tend not to show up in midterm elections, as witnessed in 2010, and Washington gridlock is the fault of GOP lawmakers.
“The problem is not that we’re too mean or we’re too partisan,” Obama said at a fundraiser in May. “The problem is that I don’t have enough votes. Full stop.”
But for Democratic incumbents in top-tier Senate races,the Obama association is like a dead weight. His recent trips to states with competitive contests have been fraught with clumsy choreography between the candidates and the White House.
When Obama arrived in North Carolina on Tuesday to speak at the American Legion’s annual meeting, Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan — along with Republican Sen. Richard Burr — greeted him on the tarmac and gave him a kiss on the cheek.
But by the time Air Force One touched down in Charlotte, she had already pulled up the welcome mat, attacking his management of the Department of Veterans Affairs as a means of differentiate herself from the president. In prepared remarks for her own speech to the convention released ahead of the president’s visit – though she didn’t speak until after him — she added that the administration “has a long road ahead to restore the faith and trust of our veterans.”
Thomas Mills, a Democratic strategist who runs the website PoliticsNC, said the visit “didn’t hurt or help her.” But, he added, “my guess is [her campaign] is hoping like hell he doesn’t come back into the state before November.”
Hagan’s opponent, state Rep. Thom Tillis, has made a point of attacking her ties to the president, releasing an ad this week citing a statistic from Congressional Quarterly that she voted with Obama 96 percent of the time.
Obama traveled to Colorado last month in part so that he could speak at a fundraiser for Udall. But as Obama got to Denver, Udall chose to stay in Washington, to vote for the confirmation of Julian Castro as secretary of Housing and Urban Development.
Udall’s campaign said it wasn’t a political decision to skip the event, and other Democrats suggested that neither option was great, since he would have been attacked for skipping a confirmation vote in favor of a fundraiser.
For his opponent, Rep. Cory Gardner, the incident is emblematic of Udall’s campaign. “Nobody has run faster from the president than Mark Udall,” Gardner said. “He sprinted when the president came to Denver in July.”
Udall had already foreshadowed his wiggle out of a joint appearance in January, when he resisted a CNN reporter’s questions about whether he wanted Obama to campaign for him. “We’ll see what the president’s schedule is, we’ll see what my schedule is,” he said. “But Coloradans are going to reelect me based on my record, not the president’s record.”
On the campaign trail, he’s emphasized his independent streak, pointing to his efforts to reform national security surveillance programs. But, Gardner said, it’s all an attempt to distract from the fact that he voted with Obama 99 percent of the time in 2013.
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“Mark Udall is one of the Obama senators,” the congressman said, referring to the eight Democrats first elected in 2008. “He simply cannot escape the fact that he’s been at Barack Obama’s beck and call.”
A Gardner campaign video released ahead of the visit features a clip from a 2008 rally where Udall introduced Obama: “Let me utter two really sweet words: President Obama.”
Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska) hasn’t been shy in his efforts to distance himself from Obama, explicitly saying he doesn’t want the president in his state.
Like other Republicans challenging Democratic incumbents, Begich opponent Dan Sullivan is pushing back. On Wednesday, at their first debate, Sullivan called the first-term senator a “rubber stamp” for national Democrats including Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.).
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“It’s a continual theme – 97 percent,” Sullivan communications director Mike Anderson said, referring to the percentage that Begich voted with Obama on issues. “You are a loyal foot soldier for the Obama administration and you haven’t been very effective in getting anything back for the state of Alaska.”
The Democratic campaigns challenge their opponents’ use of statistics showing their candidates voting with Obama since they take into account votes on which the president took a clear position. In 2013, he took a position on 37 percent of the Senate’s votes, and all of the Senate Democrats voted with him at least 90 percent of the time. Another set of data, produced by OpenCongress, tracks the percentage of votes that a senator makes with his or her party. On that list, most of the endangered incumbents are among the least likely Democrats to vote with their party.
Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) has focused her efforts to differentiate herself from the president on energy policy — a key issue in Louisiana — and her support for the expansion of offshore drilling and the approval of the Keystone XL pipeline. She has called the administration’s policies “simply wrong.’
Her opponent, Rep. Bill Cassidy, has also chosen to counter that by reminding voters that she sided with Obama on 97 percent of the votes on which he had taken a position.
“The people of Louisiana do not support President Obama 97 percent of the time, but Senator Landrieu does,” Cassidy spokesman John Cummins said in a statement. “Senator Landrieu’s lockstep support has now emboldened the president to be even more extreme, because he knows the Senate will not stand up to him.”
The Landrieu campaign fought back through a series of folksy ads in May featuring the senator and her father, Moon Landrieu, a former mayor of New Orleans. Capitalizing on her strong family name, her father ran through all the ways she has fought the administration and big corporations like BP on behalf of Louisiana.
Noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin placed Landrieu on a list of American officials banned from traveling to his country, Moon Landrieu whispered to the camera: “And now you know why Putin won’t let her into Russia.”
