Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China

[Chieftain]

the blackbox pinging isn't always picked up - witness that Air France flight that took 2 years to find - and at any rate where they've been looking is so far away from where the plane got to (at least) that even if it was audible it's unlikely anyone would have picked it up yet.


I also believe that the emergency locator beacons do not work in water, which means that if the plane crashed into the ocean the only thing still working would be the pingers in the black boxes.

ELBs have an automatic pinger that is designed to help locate it in water and modern boxes are almost indestructible.  Listening for a pinger in the water would be similar to looking for the plane with a satellite.  There is plenty of underwater listening capability out there but it takes time to gather the data and analyze it.

That Air France flight crashed in considerably deeper water than where this search it taking place.  With the exception of the Indonesian trench and the faults along the Java/Sumatra line, the water is fairly shallow and the bottom pretty flat.  A submarine for example would have pretty good luck hearing a pinger, depending on the water conditions and the size of the sound propagation channels in the water.

At this point I am sure everyone is trying just about everything.

[Oceander]

ELBs have an automatic pinger that is designed to help locate it in water and modern boxes are almost indestructible.  Listening for a pinger in the water would be similar to looking for the plane with a satellite.  There is plenty of underwater listening capability out there but it takes time to gather the data and analyze it.

That Air France flight crashed in considerably deeper water than where this search it taking place.  With the exception of the Indonesian trench and the faults along the Java/Sumatra line, the water is fairly shallow and the bottom pretty flat.  A submarine for example would have pretty good luck hearing a pinger, depending on the water conditions and the size of the sound propagation channels in the water.

At this point I am sure everyone is trying just about everything.

perhaps, but the search area still appears to be a moving target.  from what i read this morning Malaysia is now saying the plane had 8 hours' worth of fuel when it went dark, and they - the malaysians - are now saying that the plane's track could have been one of the two shown on this map:

If this is true, then the searches near the Andaman islands was pointless.


On a lighter note, maybe they really were trying to get to Perth for a few tinnies, since it seems that the lower over-the-ocean route would be more likely.

[EC]

I don't know where my head has been in this from the beginning! I should have snapped to the fact that there have been no Emergency Locator Beacons heard ANYWHERE and if there had been any sort of a catastrophic event they would have been screaming like banshees all over the place! Never even thought about them until last night when I read the stuff I copied and pasted here!

Feel like a TOTAL idiot this morning!

No worries brother. I too forgot that not only do slide rafts float by their very nature, but an explosion would force at least one door (weakest point) and automatically deploy and inflate the slide. The instant it hits water, the beacon would start screaming and those things can be picked up from orbit.

Strange how something that bsic can be forgotten so easily!

[xyno]

To all: If this craft is airworthy, what avionics will be detectable if it returns to flight?  The big assumption on my part is that they not fully disabled.

[Gazoo]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/03/15/possible-paths-for-missing-malaysia-airlines-flight/

Interesting comments.

[Gazoo]

Also interesting to revisit the families saying their loved ones' cell phones were still ringing (in service)

They speak of the cell phones in this article.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2014/03/14/heres-how-we-know-mh-370-kept-flying-for-hours/?tid=pm_pop

[DCPatriot]

Also interesting to revisit the families saying their loved ones' cell phones were still ringing (in service)

They speak of the cell phones in this article.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2014/03/14/heres-how-we-know-mh-370-kept-flying-for-hours/?tid=pm_pop

Think it's already been covered....regarding the ringing cell phones.

Calls are sent to a 'server' [read: NSA accessibility] where the phone "rings".  And they'll keep 'ringing' until somebody doesn't pay the monthly bill.

[olde north church]

The plane won't be used for attack.  It will be used to learn for attack.

[SlapLeather]

The plane won't be used for attack.  It will be used to learn for attack.

I hope you are correct. That gives us more time to find it.  But my gut says it will be "on the job" training, culminating in "work place violence"... : /

[EC]

To all: If this craft is airworthy, what avionics will be detectable if it returns to flight?  The big assumption on my part is that they not fully disabled.

Easy enough to reprogram the aircraft transponder to send a false ID and frame number if you have physical access to the data port, they are reprogrammed for every flight anyway. The engine management and reporting transponders can be disconnected and removed, it's literally a multi plug connector just behind the intake fans and 4 screws - not every aircraft has those anyway, even 777s or Dreamliners. Being as the Rolls Royce ones are helpfully coloured bright yellow, they are also easy to spot. (Thanks Dad!)

A commercial sized airplane is going to show up on radar regardless, and one with an inactive transponder will have pretty much every airforce in the world scrambling to meet and greet it.

[DCPatriot]

Why is it in this day and age, a black box/transmitter cannot be sending the same information in real time to a Wifi or other eavesdropping device?

Shame on them....

[EC]

Why is it in this day and age, a black box/transmitter cannot be sending the same information in real time to a Wifi or other eavesdropping device?

Shame on them....

Bandwidth.

It is technically possible for any plane to do so. In practical terms, there are a lot of planes in the sky at any given moment. It's why the engine management systems, when fitted, only report once an hour or once every 15 minutes. They only shift to minute by minute reporting if there is a fault in the engine.

[olde north church]

I hope you are correct. That gives us more time to find it.  But my gut says it will be "on the job" training, culminating in "work place violence"... : /

If each plane has a unique, electronic "signature", I don't believe it will be able to stay in the air long enough to be blown out of the sky.  I don't believe it would be used against a U.S. target, too far away.  Russian, Chinese or Indian, possibly Australian more likely, with my money on China or Russia, flip a coin.

[DCPatriot]

Bandwidth.

It is technically possible for any plane to do so. In practical terms, there are a lot of planes in the sky at any given moment.

IMO, that's a piss poor excuse.  Heck....there's always NSA that should be able to contribute.

Limit it to 'trouble' spots around the globe.   For example....Middle East and Asia.

Hell.....far as I'm concerned, there should be technology available that ensures the entire plane can be controlled on the ground.

If they can fly drones, they can fly 777s.

[EC]

If each plane has a unique, electronic "signature", I don't believe it will be able to stay in the air long enough to be blown out of the sky.  I don't believe it would be used against a U.S. target, too far away.  Russian, Chinese or Indian, possibly Australian more likely, with my money on China or Russia, flip a coin.

If we are going to play speculation - I call Mecca.

The two guys on fake passports are reported to be Iranian and purchased their tickets through an Iranian intermediary. Iran may bluster about Israel, but their most serious hate is for Saudi Arabia. They consider the Saudis controlling Mecca the same way a Catholic would look at a Wiccan Pope.

[DCPatriot]

If we are going to play speculation - I call Mecca.

The two guys on fake passports are reported to be Iranian and purchased their tickets through an Iranian intermediary. Iran may bluster about Israel, but their most serious hate is for Saudi Arabia. They consider the Saudis controlling Mecca the same way a Catholic would look at a Wiccan Pope.

Ah....that's interesting.  Good take, EC!   

[EC]

IMO, that's a piss poor excuse.  Heck....there's always NSA that should be able to contribute.

Limit it to 'trouble' spots around the globe.   For example....Middle East and Asia.

Hell.....far as I'm concerned, there should be technology available that ensures the entire plane can be controlled on the ground.

If they can fly drones, they can fly 777s.

Who pays? Bandwidth and storage costs, and the hotspots are not exactly rolling in money or reliable infrastructure.

Most planes pretty much fly themselves now anyway. They can take off, fly to the destination and land without the pilot even needing to be awake. He's only there in case something fails.

[SlapLeather]

A commercial sized airplane is going to show up on radar regardless, and one with an inactive transponder will have pretty much every airforce in the world scrambling to meet and greet it.

If that is the case, we should know exactly where it is currently, correct?

[Gazoo]

If that is the case, we should know exactly where it is currently, correct?

Maybe I missed something but it is only undetected at a certain low altitude in-flight-only. If it is grounded, parked in a hangar no detection-correct?

[SlapLeather]

Maybe I missed something but it is only undetected at a certain low altitude in-flight-only. If it is grounded, parked in a hangar no detection-correct?

Correct, but it appears we and every military in the world, had 7 (perhaps more) hours to intercept. That's a slow scramble...

[EC]

If that is the case, we should know exactly where it is currently, correct?

Engines off, no signature at all to be detected. It disappeared in a region that is pretty spotty in terms of both radar and satellite coverage. One interesting aspect is the odd report that it climbed to 45,000 feet.That is right on the limit of long range radar's ceiling (commercial, obviously, I am not talking about military installations). Without the transponder running, it is just a blip. No ID, nothing.

[Gazoo]

Engines off, no signature at all to be detected. It disappeared in a region that is pretty spotty in terms of both radar and satellite coverage. One interesting aspect is the odd report that it climbed to 45,000 feet.That is right on the limit of long range radar's ceiling (commercial, obviously, I am not talking about military installations). Without the transponder running, it is just a blip. No ID, nothing.

Okay so at 45,000 feet they are undetectable and only those with oxygen masks would be at 100%. Would the 777 oxygen masks in the passenger area automatically deploy at 45,000 feet?

Also at a lower altitude they are undetectable.

So the time-frame they went from 45,000 DOWN *could* have been fast enough not to be detected especially in the middle of the night. So could they have planned this accordingly to get down in altitude for landing in a minimum time? And was this descent footprinted for later access or only seen in real time?

[EC]

Okay so at 45,000 feet they are undetectable and only those with oxygen masks would be at 100%. Would the 777 oxygen masks in the passenger area automatically deploy at 45,000 feet?

Also at a lower altitude they are undetectable.

So the time-frame they went from 45,000 DOWN *could* have been fast enough not to be detected especially in the middle of the night. So could they have planned this accordingly to get down in altitude for landing in a minimum time? And was this descent footprinted for later access or only seen in real time?

Oxygen masks are supposed to automatically deploy if the cabin pressure equivalent drops below that at 3500 meters (roughly 10,000 feet) The cabin is usually kept at about 6000 feet equivalent air pressure in flight to reduce wear on the airframe. While the masks may deploy automatically or manually, the feed to the masks can be cut off by the cockpit. Some pilots have been known to drop cabin pressure briefly on rowdy flights, which puts everyone to sleep! 

There are enough gaps in radar coverage there to slip though, assuming you know exactly what you are doing. The big problem is getting from the one minimally detectable (45,000 feet) to the other (under 200 feet) without being spotted. A suicide dive could do it, you'd be on radar for 30 seconds, tops, as an unidentified blip. But if you wanted to land the plane somewhere, you are going to be on radar for a few minutes. Plenty of time for questions to be asked and aircraft and military grade radar to be activated.

[olde north church]

If we are going to play speculation - I call Mecca.

The two guys on fake passports are reported to be Iranian and purchased their tickets through an Iranian intermediary. Iran may bluster about Israel, but their most serious hate is for Saudi Arabia. They consider the Saudis controlling Mecca the same way a Catholic would look at a Wiccan Pope.

I thought about it too but I didn't think they would destroy "holy" spots in common.  If it were say Rome and Byzantium, I would think it more likely.

[happyg]

Mapped: The 634 runways where missing Malaysia Airlines plane could have landed

Potential hijackers had enough fuel to fly anywhere from Pakistan to Western Australia



These are the 634 runways where the missing Malaysia Airlines plane could have landed after a potential hijacking.

Today Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak said investigators believe flight MH370's disappearance is the result of 'deliberate action' by someone on the plane.

During a dramatic press conference, he said satellite evidence showed the aircraft's transponder was turned off and it change direction shortly before it vanished.

For all the latest updates on missing flight MH370 follow our live blog.

Mr Razak said it is believed to have been heading in a westerly and then north westerly direction.

The revelation gives hope to the families of the 227 passengers and 12 crew that the Boeing 777 may have landed somewhere and they are still alive.

It is estimated that the jet had enough fuel to have flown around another 2,200 miles after it vanished.

WYNC Data Team said based on the size of the plane, there are 634 runways where it could potentially have landed.

They are spread from as far north as Pakistan, to as far south as the west coast of Australia or even Japan.



More at link: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/malaysia-airlines-plane-634-runways-3245824