Tropical depression has 50% chance of developing in Gulf of Mexico this week

[Hoodat]

Tropical depression has 50% chance of developing in Gulf of Mexico this week

CARLIE KOLLATH WELLS     |     Oct 16, 2019 at 7:41 am     |     Updated 2:14 pm

A tropical disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico has a 50% chance of developing into at least a tropical depression this week, the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday morning.

If it strengthens to a tropical storm, it most likely will be named Nestor.

Forecasters expect the system to move north this week and it could reach the northern Gulf Coast this weekend. Heavy rain will most likely be the primary threat, according to the National Weather Service in Slidell.

However, it's too early to pinpoint where the system will go and what hazards it could bring.

As of 1 p.m., the disturbance was off the coast of southern Mexico in the Bay of Campeche. It's expected to move northeast across the Gulf of Mexico.

https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article_dd7d7392-f00e-11e9-958b-fb210f59084d.html


This could shut down a lot of Gulf platforms.

[AllThatJazzZ]

This could shut down a lot of Gulf platforms.

Not to mention that there's October baseball to be played in Houston. Stay away, Nestor.

[thackney]

...This could shut down a lot of Gulf platforms.

That is an ugly track for a lot of folks.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Not to mention that there's October baseball to be played in Houston. Stay away, Nestor.

not if the astros sweep the yanks in NY

[IsailedawayfromFR]

not if the astros sweep the yanks in NY

Which is more likely now that Verlander is up tonight.

[AllThatJazzZ]

Which is more likely now that Verlander is up tonight.

Agreed, but that's just the ALCS. After that, there's that World Series thing. I'm glad Nestor doesn't seem to have designs on Texas' Gulf Coast. We've already had a terrible rain event (Imelda) this year. We surely don't want another, especially before the World Series. I'm sorry for folks who are in the path. Maybe it won't be a storm of any particular significance. I must admit that I haven't been paying much attention because the Astros and my new (old) dog are taking up a lot of my time.

[libertybele]

Well, the way I see it, it is not expected to reach hurricane strength.  All is well.

[AllThatJazzZ]

Well, the way I see it, it is not expected to reach hurricane strength.  All is well.

Not necessarily. We've gone through many that never became hurricanes but were devastating rain events. I don't know it that applies to this one, as I plead ignorant of its strength, path, etc. But I never discount a tropical system.

[libertybele]

Not necessarily. We've gone through many that never became hurricanes but were devastating rain events. I don't know it that applies to this one, as I plead ignorant of its strength, path, etc. But I never discount a tropical system.

Granted, tropical storms can kick up some wind, tornadoes and bring heavy rainfall but nothing in comparison to the winds, tornadoes, storm surge and rainfall that a hurricane brings. I've lived in FL for over 28 years and I'll take a tropical storm over a hurricane any day.

[Hoodat]

Platform air traffic is back on again.

[AllThatJazzZ]

Granted, tropical storms can kick up some wind, tornadoes and bring heavy rainfall but nothing in comparison to the winds, tornadoes, storm surge and rainfall that a hurricane brings. I've lived in FL for over 28 years and I'll take a tropical storm over a hurricane any day.

I don't disagree, all things considered. In my 70+ years on the Texas Gulf Coast, I've seen it all. My home has flooded. My roof has been ripped off and my home (a different one) rained in. I've lost my share of fences over the years. Thank God I've never lost a tree. The point I was trying to make was that a rain event -- Tropical Storm Allison, for example https://www.hcfcd.org/media/1351/ts-allison_pubreportenglish.pdf, -- can have devastating effects on homes and communities. While I would surely prefer a tropical storm over a full-blown hurricane, I will never have the sense that all is well if one is coming my way. Allison had sustained winds of only 48 mph, but she rained all over us. Then she came back and rained again, and our landscapes and neighborhoods were changed forever. And 22 souls perished.

[libertybele]

I don't disagree, all things considered. In my 70+ years on the Texas Gulf Coast, I've seen it all. My home has flooded. My roof has been ripped off and my home (a different one) rained in. I've lost my share of fences over the years. Thank God I've never lost a tree. The point I was trying to make was that a rain event -- Tropical Storm Allison, for example https://www.hcfcd.org/media/1351/ts-allison_pubreportenglish.pdf, -- can have devastating effects on homes and communities. While I would surely prefer a tropical storm over a full-blown hurricane, I will never have the sense that all is well if one is coming my way. Allison had sustained winds of only 48 mph, but she rained all over us. Then she came back and rained again, and our landscapes and neighborhoods were changed forever. And 22 souls perished.

@AllThatJazzZ  sorry for your losses

[Snarknado]

In related news, experts have classified the anxiety and panic surrounding the dismal slate of democrat primary candidates as a category 5 trumpical depression...

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Not necessarily. We've gone through many that never became hurricanes but were devastating rain events. I don't know it that applies to this one, as I plead ignorant of its strength, path, etc. But I never discount a tropical system.

Hurricanes inflict the most severe damage from water, not wind.

[AllThatJazzZ]

@AllThatJazzZ  sorry for your losses

@libertybele

I guiltily admit that between a terrible migraine yesterday and then the Astros game that advanced them to the World Series, I am unaware of most of the weekend news. I hope you fared well in the storm.