Trump surges among likely Republican primary voters: Reuters/Ipsos poll

[Fishrrman]

http://news.yahoo.com/trump-surges-among-likely-republican-primary-voters-reuters-213521679.html

Trump surges among likely Republican primary voters: Reuters/Ipsos poll
By James Oliphant

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - After a week in which he hosted Saturday Night Live and stood center-stage at a Republican debate, Donald Trump is surging among Republicans likely to cast votes in the party’s presidential primary.

According to the five-day rolling Reuters/Ipsos presidential poll, Trump has leapt some 17 percentage points among likely Republican voters since Nov. 6, when he was essentially tied with Ben Carson at about 25 percent. Trump now captures 42 percent of those voters while Carson has fallen off slightly.

Among all Republicans - not simply likely primary voters -Trump holds a substantial edge over Carson, at 34 percent to about 20 percent, according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Trump’s appearance on NBC's Saturday Night Live earned the program its highest ratings in two years, with 9.3 million viewers tuning in. Then, on Tuesday, 13.5 million viewers watched the debate from Milwaukee broadcast on the Fox Business Network.

It remains to be seen, however, whether Trump’s surge will hold in the wake of his comments at an Iowa rally Thursday night in which he tore into Carson, telling the crowd that Carson has a "pathological" temper.

"If you’re pathological, there’s no cure for that,” Trump said. "If you’re a child molester, there’s no cure for that.”

Trump then posted a video critical of Carson on his Instagram account Friday.

The Republican establishment has long expected the outspoken billionaire to fade, and he has yet to give it the satisfaction. Trump has consistently held more than 25 percent of the support among all Republicans in the Reuters/Ipsos rolling poll for more than two months.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll is also bad news for Marco Rubio, who is widely considered to be emerging as the establishment-backed alternative to Trump. Despite receiving rave notices for his past two debate performance, Rubio’s support has remained flat, with about 10 percent of likely Republican primary voters preferring him.

Those primary voters remain very down on former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Just four percent say they would support Bush in the latest poll.

The results of the five-day rolling Reuters/Ipsos poll was based on a sample of 534 Republicans with a credibility interval of 5 percent. The pool of likely Republican primary voters was based on sample of 257 voters with a credibility interval of 7 percent.

[Longiron]

That is only with R voters. The Independents need to register for the Pubbie party to vote in their primary. Trump is running 3 rd party and the RINOS will support Hillary but that is ok. When the crossover vote of Dems, Blacks, legal immigrants and independents he will get 60+ % in the general. The primary is the battle and the independents need to register for the PUBBIE party. He will make America great again and the only onw that can. See a TRUMP / Cruz ticket forming and CRUZ taking Rubio out of the picture on immigration 

[Oceander]

That is only with R voters. The Independents need to register for the Pubbie party to vote in their primary. Trump is running 3 rd party and the RINOS will support Hillary but that is ok. When the crossover vote of Dems, Blacks, legal immigrants and independents he will get 60+ % in the general. The primary is the battle and the independents need to register for the PUBBIE party. He will make America great again and the only onw that can.

[Longiron]

Vote Hillary and be happy!

[Oceander]

Vote Hillary and be happy!

You'd like that, wouldn't you?  Unfortunately for you, the only people here who'll vote for Hillary or Sanders will be the so-called "conservatives" should reason prevail and Trump not be nominated.

I am a team player - unlike way too many so-called "conservatives" - and I understand that you don't always get your way and that you must still pull together even though you're disappointed.  I will - as I have said repeatedly on many, many threads - vote for Trump if he is the nominee.

Now, will you vote for Fiorina if she's the nominee?

No, I didn't think you would.  You'd prefer to vote for Hillary or Sanders, and make no mistake, sitting on your hands and refusing to vote simply because Trump didn't get nominated is the same thing as voting for Hillary or Sanders.

[Bigun]

You'd like that, wouldn't you?  Unfortunately for you, the only people here who'll vote for Hillary or Sanders will be the so-called "conservatives" should reason prevail and Trump not be nominated.

I am a team player - unlike way too many so-called "conservatives" - and I understand that you don't always get your way and that you must still pull together even though you're disappointed.  I will - as I have said repeatedly on many, many threads - vote for Trump if he is the nominee.

Now, will you vote for Fiorina if she's the nominee?

No, I didn't think you would.  You'd prefer to vote for Hillary or Sanders, and make no mistake, sitting on your hands and refusing to vote simply because Trump didn't get nominated is the same thing as voting for Hillary or Sanders.

Yep! Absolutely!

[Oceander]

Yep! Absolutely!

Not sure if that's positive or negative.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Trump just finished a rally in Texas.  I actually watched it (online).  Here's what I noticed:   He truly connects with the people.  When he speaks he's not lecturing, he's not preaching--he's talking, he's explaining and he's relating.  These are strengths few politicians have, and they are essential to success.

The connection Trump has with the thousands and thousands who hear him is becoming a bond.  And IMO if Trump makes it to the general election,  that bond will hold and he will win.

[240B]

I agree. At this point, Trump is the guy to beat. And he is getting stronger, not weaker, month by month.

There may be many on this board, and in the GOPe who will not vote for President in this election. I think it will make no difference.

[sinkspur]

That is only with R voters. The Independents need to register for the Pubbie party to vote in their primary. Trump is running 3 rd party and the RINOS will support Hillary but that is ok. When the crossover vote of Dems, Blacks, legal immigrants and independents he will get 60+ % in the general. The primary is the battle and the independents need to register for the PUBBIE party. He will make America great again and the only onw that can. See a TRUMP / Cruz ticket forming and CRUZ taking Rubio out of the picture on immigration 

If Trump is the nominee, you will see a massacre of Goldwater proportions against him.  Blacks will NOT vote for him, nor will most independents.  Forget Democrats.

He is a despicable human being and does not deserve a minute's consideration for the highest office in the land.

[sinkspur]

Trump just finished a rally in Texas.  I actually watched it (online).  Here's what I noticed:   He truly connects with the people.  When he speaks he's not lecturing, he's not preaching--he's talking, he's explaining and he's relating.  These are strengths few politicians have, and they are essential to success.

The connection Trump has with the thousands and thousands who hear him is becoming a bond.  And IMO if Trump makes it to the general election,  that bond will hold and he will win.

When Trump speaks, he's usually tearing down somebody else, calling his opponents lazy or sleepy or child molesters.  Trump explains nothing because, other than immigration, Trump has little in the way of policies.

He's riding a wave of a fear of "them" (illegals)  and he'll include Muslims in that now.  It's Obama-like tactics and if it works with Republicans, we'll lose the Senate and House seats as well.

[Right_in_Virginia]

When Trump speaks, he's usually tearing down somebody else, calling his opponents lazy or sleepy or child molesters.  Trump explains nothing because, other than immigration, Trump has little in the way of policies.

Nope.  Not today.  Didn't give but a passing glance to others in the race.  And, yes, he does explain.  And he does it quite well.  I know I'm asking a lot --- but try to listen to more than sound bites from him.  (Just a suggestion---please be gentle in your response.  ^-^ )

He's riding a wave of a fear of "them" (illegals)  and he'll include Muslims in that now.  It's Obama-like tactics and if it works with Republicans, we'll lose the Senate and House seats as well.

Actually, immigration is a small part of his rally speeches.  Does it get a lot of applause?  Yes.  But he also gets very enthusiastic applause when he speaks of jobs, the economy, healthcare, the military, and national defense.   

[aligncare]

Trump has been leading the polls for over 130 days now. The only other GOP candidates to have done so have gone on to win the nomination (Dole, McCain). So at this point, it appears the nomination is Trump's.

The only way that's gonna change is if someone rises in the polls to knock him out of the lead. Which of Trump's competitors has that potential?

None that I see.

[musiclady]

When Trump speaks, he's usually tearing down somebody else, calling his opponents lazy or sleepy or child molesters.  Trump explains nothing because, other than immigration, Trump has little in the way of policies.

He's riding a wave of a fear of "them" (illegals)  and he'll include Muslims in that now.  It's Obama-like tactics and if it works with Republicans, we'll lose the Senate and House seats as well.

Completely agree.  He's riding a populist wave and will try to take advantage of that now.

He's not a serious candidate.  Never has been.  Never will be.

[musiclady]

Trump has been leading the polls for over 130 days now. The only other GOP candidates to have done so have gone on to win the nomination (Dole, McCain). So at this point, it appears the nomination is Trump's.

The only way that's gonna change is if someone rises in the polls to knock him out of the lead. Which of Trump's competitors has that potential?

None that I see.

Cruz, Rubio and Carson.

And all of them are better people, and more conservative than Trump.

[sinkspur]

Nope.  Not today.  Didn't give but a passing glance to others in the race.  And, yes, he does explain.  And he does it quite well.  I know I'm asking a lot --- but try to listen to more than sound bites from him.  (Just a suggestion---please be gentle in your response.  ^-^ )

Actually, immigration is a small part of his rally speeches.  Does it get a lot of applause?  Yes.  But he also gets very enthusiastic applause when he speaks of jobs, the economy, healthcare, the military, and national defense.   

Don't worry.  He'll be back at their throats soon enough.  Maybe his staff told him he sounded like the town drunk with his 95 minute tantrum in Iowa Thursday and his outrageous statements.

NOTHING he says will ever be enacted.  He has no support in Congress, and he needs Congress to get anything passed.  He will not get any tax increases, he will not get his silly immigration plan to first base, and I can't imagine any serious foreign policy people working for such a volatile, temperamental person.

I will never support him. Ever.  And some on here will continue to support him, no matter what he does or says.  So, there it is.

[aligncare]

Completely agree.  He's riding a populist wave and will try to take advantage of that now.

He's not a serious candidate.  Never has been.  Never will be.

He is a serious candidate. He's been thinking of running for at least 15 years. He's written three political books among his two dozen other books. He's been leading since the day he announced. Sounds serious to me.

If you'll allow me, I think what you meant to say is that you will never take his candidacy seriously. And that is your right.

[sinkspur]

Trump has been leading the polls for over 130 days now. The only other GOP candidates to have done so have gone on to win the nomination (Dole, McCain). So at this point, it appears the nomination is Trump's.

The only way that's gonna change is if someone rises in the polls to knock him out of the lead. Which of Trump's competitors has that potential?

None that I see.

Rubio has the potential, and he's gaining in the early primary states, which are the only ones that matter.  National polls are meaningless in primaries, especially if the leader of those polls loses Iowa, NH, and SC. 

[aligncare]

Cruz, Rubio and Carson.

And all of them are better people, and more conservative than Trump.

But, can they knock Trump off his pirch? Only Rubio has the potential to do that. But in the final analysis will he?

[sinkspur]

He is a serious candidate. He's been thinking of running for at least 15 years. He's written three political books among his two dozen other books. He's been leading since the day he announced. Sounds serious to me.

If you'll allow me, I think what you meant to say is that you will never take his candidacy seriously. And that is your right.

Trump is not a serious candidate because he's not a serious person.   He has changed parties more than he's changed wives (and that's a lot) and his flippant criticism of his opposition reveals a very nasty mean streak that over half the population of the US finds very off-putting.

Trump has no interest in politics.  He's just run out of stuff to do, so, like Ross Perot (another billionaire) decides he wants to cut his electoral teeth on the highest office in the land.  Other than Eisenhower, who won a World War, Trump has no accomplishments, other than driving four of his businesses into bankruptcy and gloating over kicking old women out of their homes through eminent domain. 

But he talks tough, and apparently that's all his shallow supporters care about: that he can talk. 

Sound like the guy we elected seven years ago?  He could talk to and we found out that's about all he can do. Trump is exactly the same because he has no interest in getting his hands dirty in the political process. Trump is accustomed to telling other people what to do.  That won't work in Washington, no matter how much he blusters and bloviates.

If comparing your nearest opponent to a child molester means you go higher in polls, then I want nothing to do with the Republican Party or those in it who support this cretin.

[Longiron]

You'd like that, wouldn't you?  Unfortunately for you, the only people here who'll vote for Hillary or Sanders will be the so-called "conservatives" should reason prevail and Trump not be nominated.

I am a team player - unlike way too many so-called "conservatives" - and I understand that you don't always get your way and that you must still pull together even though you're disappointed.  I will - as I have said repeatedly on many, many threads - vote for Trump if he is the nominee.

Now, will you vote for Fiorina if she's the nominee?

No, I didn't think you would.  You'd prefer to vote for Hillary or Sanders, and make no mistake, sitting on your hands and refusing to vote simply because Trump didn't get nominated is the same thing as voting for Hillary or Sanders.

Having a bad meds day? Carly the nominee? Oh boy a Mittens, Dole, McCain, Karr Rove team player. Yep that worked out. Just as good as Hillary and Rubio will work out? Now go vote for Hillary or Rubio and when your neighborhood gets attacked you can still blame TRUMP for that or Cruz. Team player with no team!

[musiclady]

He is a serious candidate. He's been thinking of running for at least 15 years. He's written three political books among his two dozen other books. He's been leading since the day he announced. Sounds serious to me.

If you'll allow me, I think what you meant to say is that you will never take his candidacy seriously. And that is your right.

Why doesn't it matter to you that as recently as a few years ago he was an avowed Progressive Democrat who voted for Obama?

It doesn't matter if he was writing political books if he was on the wrong side of the truth.

The support for Trump is based on anger, not reality.  And as I said months ago, NO good decisions are the result of anger, or any other emotion.  There has to be rational thought driving our decisions, and Trump just doesn't DO 'rational thought.'

[sinkspur]

Why doesn't it matter to you that as recently as a few years ago he was an avowed Progressive Democrat who voted for Obama?

It doesn't matter if he was writing political books if he was on the wrong side of the truth.

The support for Trump is based on anger, not reality.  And as I said months ago, NO good decisions are the result of anger, or any other emotion.  There has to be rational thought driving our decisions, and Trump just doesn't DO 'rational thought.'

Exactly.  A perfect way to put opposition to Trump.

Donald Trump is all emotion.  You can tell that because he NEVER argues on the basis of policy.  When he opposes someone, he attacks them personally through ad hominems:  the way they look, the way they act, take some line the Jeb misspoke and try to brand him as hating women.

I never thought my fellow conservatives would get sucked in by a guy who appeals to the lowest level of consciousness, which is emotion.  What would Trump do if Congress just said "No, you're not going deport 11 million people"?  I'm afraid it wouldn't be pretty and his response would not rational.

[musiclady]

Exactly.  A perfect way to put opposition to Trump.

Donald Trump is all emotion.  You can tell that because he NEVER argues on the basis of policy.  When he opposes someone, he attacks them personally through ad hominems:  the way they look, the way they act, take some line the Jeb misspoke and try to brand him as hating women.

I never thought my fellow conservatives would get sucked in by a guy who appeals to the lowest level of consciousness, which is emotion.  What would Trump do if Congress just said "No, you're not going deport 11 million people"?  I'm afraid it wouldn't be pretty and his response would not rational.

Nor have I.  This whole situation has me both bewildered and dismayed.

What I have always thought about conservatism no longer seems to be true.  We are the thinking party.  Democrats are the angry ones.

Until now......

[240B]

Democrats are the angry ones.

Until now......

Perfect quote. Perfect summation.

You're damn we're angry. That is exactly right.
The status-quo is over.