That Polling Miss in Michigan Reveals a Huge Problem

[mystery-ak]

That Polling Miss in Michigan Reveals a Huge Problem
David Strom 4:40 PM | August 06, 2026

Yesterday I took a stab at why the pollsters were so far off on the Michigan Senate race. I think it was a pretty good first stab at explaining the issue, and no doubt there will be a lot of focus on the issue by people more competent than I to explain how the pollsters got things so wrong.

So I asked my friend-through-X, Scott Rasmussen, what he thought, and he was kind enough to give some insight into the issue.

First, let's look at the magnitude of the problem:

https://twitter.com/TonerousHyus/status/2085011674705060206

The polls weren't just off by a little; they missed the result by double digits. And it was everybody, so this wasn't an Ann Selzer-type miss as happened in Iowa in 2024. The scale of that miss led to her retirement, but you can be certain that none of these pollsters will hang their heads in shame and quit.

more
https://hotair.com/david-strom/2026/08/06/that-polling-miss-in-michigan-reveals-a-huge-problem-n3817700

[Smokin Joe]

Apparently they quit counting just as soon as he won.

(The polls are just there to set the point spread, and to get the bandwagon effect going.)

Looks like the bandwagon wasn't as appealing as they thought. That'll send the ad campaign people back to the drawing board.