The Assumptions of Success
by Dr. Chris Phillips
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06.15.2026 at 06:00am
Abstract
COL Ned Marsh’s critique of the Army Special Forces model raises a challenge that extends well beyond force design: successful organizations and leaders alike can adapt continuously while becoming increasingly optimized for conditions that are themselves changing. This article examines how assumptions forged through success become embedded in organizational culture and professional identity, making them progressively harder to examine even as circumstances evolve. The central task is not adaptation itself, but the discernment required to distinguish enduring principles from context-dependent models before changing realities expose the difference.
The Question Beneath the Debate
COL Ned Marsh’s recent article, The Last A-Team: Special Forces Aren’t Special Anymore, presents a compelling argument regarding whether the current Army Special Forces model remains optimally aligned with the demands of an increasingly contested and technologically sophisticated operating environment. Much of the discussion surrounding the article has understandably focused on force design, unconventional warfare, and strategic competition. Yet embedded within Marsh’s critique is a broader observation that extends well beyond the Special Operations Forces (SOF) enterprise.
One of the more interesting aspects of Marsh’s argument is that it challenges a common assumption about adaptation itself. Institutions are often criticized for becoming stagnant, complacent, or resistant to change. The implied solution is straightforward: adapt, innovate, modernize, and evolve. Marsh describes a different phenomenon.
The force he describes did not remain static. Throughout the Global War on Terror (GWOT), Special Forces expanded, refined capabilities, accumulated operational experience, and responded to an extraordinary operational demand signal across multiple theaters. In many respects, it did exactly what successful organizations are expected to do.
The question raised by the article is therefore not whether adaptation occurred. Rather, it is whether adaptations reinforced during one strategic era remained optimally aligned with the realities of another.
This distinction matters because it shifts attention away from the presence or absence of change and toward the assumptions guiding change. At its core, Marsh’s argument suggests that organizations may adapt continuously while becoming increasingly optimized for conditions that are themselves evolving.
Although Marsh’s focus is organizational, the phenomenon he describes is not unique to military institutions. Successful organizations and leaders alike eventually confront the same underlying question: how do you recognize when the assumptions that contributed to previous success no longer fully explain the realities you now face? Organizations encounter this challenge through doctrine, culture, incentives, and force design. Individuals encounter it through professional identity, accumulated expertise, and deeply held beliefs about leadership, contribution, achievement, meaning, and purpose. The mechanisms differ, but the challenge is consistent, and understanding why it occurs requires understanding how successful assumptions become embedded in organizations and individuals alike.
From Success to Assumption
https://smallwarsjournal.com/2026/06/15/the-assumptions-of-success/
